Thread by @USMortality

In this thread I want to deep dive into the COVID-19 vaccine trial and some questions I have, specifically:

Does the COVID-19 vaccine lead to less illness as claimed here?

1/n

#Covid #Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus

As we know from the RCT trials, there was not difference in all-cause deaths.
Pfizer reported 29 deaths of which 15 occured in the vaccine arm and 14 in the placebo arm. Within normal range.

There was a total of 3 covid deaths - 2 in the placebo arm.

https://twitter.com/USMortality/status/1420866847566565379?s=20

Moderna reported no covid deaths, and a total of 13 deaths, 6 in the vaccine arm and 7 in the placebo arm. Also within normal range.

So we can see that the RCT's could not prove that they reduce all-cause deaths, or covid deaths.

So what is the 95% efficacy based on?

It is based on an illness PLUS a positive PCR test, as defined below in the Pfizer doc:

So vaccines appear to reduce the incidence of illness AND a positive PCR test for SARS-CoV-2.
But what about overall illness? That data was not published!!

If COVID is the driver of excess deaths, then there should be more illness. Hence the vaccine should reduce illness. (A)

I called this above scenario A.

But what if the Corona like illness is actually not reduced, and stays exactly the same? (Scenario B)

We simply don't know. Neither Pfizer nor Moderna have published this data - which begs the question, why not?

Which scenario do you think is likely?

@threadreaderapp unroll plz

Sheet and data for the charts: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…