Thread by @GicAriana

There seems to be a tremendous amount of optimism that the West will meaningfully step up and help Ukraine if Moscow escalates its war of aggression in the coming months as many fear it will.

I cannot even begin to imagine how such unshakeable faith in western support can exist.

Not one - NOT ONE - country has even formally and officially recognized that Russia is the aggressor state waging unlawful interstate war against Ukraine. Russia militarily invaded in *2014*.

https://twitter.com/gicariana/status/1460111497221316611

Without this CRITICAL recognition of FACT, there are so many limits on help. And more critically, if no one can even recognize that Russia is the aggressor state, how can we expect any WILLINGNESS to pursue appropriate remedies and courses of action?

We haven’t seen sufficiently meaningful support for Ukraine to date. We have seen many measures to have good relations with Moscow, and to simply “end the conflict” with no attempts to bring about a FAIR, JUST, and ENDURABLE peace for Ukraine.

What we have seen a great deal of as well is stern words for Ukraine, words of warning not to “escalate tensions” or “provoke Russia” EVERY SINGLE TIME Moscow demonstrably escalates its war. And deals which benefit Russia.

Again - where’s this new optimism coming from?

To be brutally honest, if I were sitting in the Kremlin, I would look at the “rah, rah - we’ll support Ukraine!” as little more than an extension of “deep concern”. Just empty rhetoric.

This doesn’t mean I believe Ukraine will be totally and utterly abandoned. But this new line of “Moscow will be making a big mistake - the West led by USA will save the day!!” seems a lot like faith in unicorns, and based not in reality, but on a lot of myth and fantasy.