--The Case Rate since 6/30 is 2.8x higher in the reddest tenth of the country than the bluest tenth, down from 3.0x higher a month ago.
--The Death Rate since 6/30 is 5.7x higher in the reddest tenth fo the country than the bluest tenth, down from 6.0x higher a month ago.
NONPARTISAN VIEW:
--The Case Rate since 6/30 is 2.2x higher in the least-vaxxed tenth of the country than the most-vaxxed.
--The Death Rate since 6/30 is 4.4x higher in the least-vaxxed tenth of the country than the most-vaxxed.
Both ratios have stayed even for the past month.
While I get a lot more attention for my Red/Blue divide graphs, from a sheer "how effective are the vaccines?" perspective, THIS is the graph I'd show people if you don't want to delve into partisan politics:
The COVID death rate since 6/30/21 (when the Delta variant started raging across the U.S.) is *4.4x higher* in counties which are less than 42% vaccinated than in counties which are more than 69% vaccinated.
And yes, each of those brackets has roughly ~33.1 million people.
NOTE: The *case rate* graph by vaccination level is interesting in that they drop off at a fairly steady rate until it hits around 60% vaxxed; over that it seems to sort of flatten out.
However, only ~200K people live in counties where more than 80% have been vaxxed.
REGARDING MIAMI-DADE COUNTY: THIS is what I'm talking about.
These are all the U.S. counties which have more than 1M residents and which are supposedly at least 70% fully vaxxed.
Anything stand out???
I’m not suggesting anything nefarious here, by the way. Many FL folks have said they’re pretty sure it’s a combination of snowbirds and vaccine tourists from Latin America etc.
As long as SOMEONE is getting those vaccine injections, it’s not a bad thing. It’s just about how the doses are being reported, that’s all—if a bunch of them aren’t M-D residents they shouldn’t be reported that way.
Obviously this is happening in other parts of the country to some extent as well, but in Miami-Dade it seems to be a MUCH bigger portion of the vaxx data than elsewhere.
He’s shocked that the SDs didn’t automatically vote for the candidate who won the state, but the ENTIRE POINT of SDs was to give them a level of veto power over a potentially extreme candidate. If the GOP had a similar system in 2016, Trump may not have gotten the nomination.
And that was hardly a “dirty trick.” The SD system had been around for decades, was well-known, and it had even been partly designed BY BERNIE SANDERS’ CAMPAIGN ADVISOR.
📣 For statistical analysis types, note that after increasing continuously from March - September, the red/blue vaxx rate R^2 has plateaued around a month or so ago:
Don't get me wrong: I'm not saying that #BIF + #BBB (assuming it gets passed) will be enough for Dems to win in 2022 (even if they get the word out etc.); but dismissing them as minor accomplishments is just horrible framing from a journalist who I usually respect.
For those wondering:
—bubble size indicates county population size
—data is thru yesterday (11/12/21).
Several people are accusing me of “cherry picking” by starting on 6/30/21 instead of going back to the start of the pandemic. It’s hardly breaking news that the first wave in March/April 2010 slammed densely-populated blue areas far heavier than sparsely-populated red areas. 1/
Even more remarkable: NEW enrollment is only down 2.5% y/y when adjusted for fewer days & fewer states being hosted on the federal exchange...this is AMAZING considering over 2M people already enrolled via the COVID Special Enrollment Period!
Also noteworthy: Active renewals are up 26% year over year, which is good because it suggests more people are wising up to the merits of ACTIVELY re-enrolling vs auto-renewing.
Meanwhile, South Dakota’s Attorney General killed a man, lied about it (he claimed he thought he’d hit a deer even though the man’s glasses were found in his car after his head smashed through the windshield) and is facing impeachment over it. #BothSides!