Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW12 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I address the most common dilemmas in the FPL community before we head into GW12:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

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It seems like GW11 happened in a different lifetime. If you would like to refresh your memory on how things were before the international break, read my review of GW11 where I cover each match one by one and talk about the implications for GW12: 👇

fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/fpl-gameweek-1…

Q: In this section, I cover Diogo Jota, Son Heung-min and Phil Foden.

With latest reports coming in that Roberto Firmino is likely to be sidelined with injury till December, Diogo Jota (£7.5m) becomes an option that is simply too good to ignore. Liverpool have been...

... statistically the best attack in the league this season when it comes to shots in the box, big chances and xG. Having a piece of that pie for just £7.5m makes me think that getting in Jota is a transfer of the highest priority in the weeks to come. Some fantasy managers...

... have been scarred by the experience of owning Jota when he misfired from Gameweek 4-7 but it is worth noting that even then he was fourth for big chance involvements and fifth for expected goal involvement (xGi) and highly underperformed on his expected numbers. With...

... Champions League qualification already secured and the possibility of Mane and Salah leaving early around late December, Jota could turn out to be an option for the long term.

I now compare him to Son Heung-min (£10.3m):

Son v Jota

Stats per 90
Shots in the box: 1.3 v 2.4
Big chances: 0.6 v 0.9
Key passes: 1.9 v 2.1
xG: 0.37 v 0.5
Expected goal involvement (xGi): 0.5 v 0.9

With Conte coming in things may be different but if picking one right now, Jota for ∼£3m cheaper is the pick. Don’t get me wrong Son is a perfectly good pick to own but I would get Son only if I already owned Jota as I think he’s more of a priority.

Amidst the Jota/Kane/Son frenzy over the international break, it's still worth pointing out that a couple of quiet weeks from Phil Foden (£8.3m) shouldn't mean he slips under the radar. He's still third among midfielders for xG and second for xGi (behind Salah) ever since...

... he started playing in Gameweek 6. Man City are ranked as the bookies favorites for 2.5+ goals this GW and with Foden having a very high 45% goal involvement rate (comfortably the best among Man City players this season), there is every possibility that points are on the way.

Q: Should Raphinha be sold ahead of a tough run of fixtures?

This is a tough discussion to be had particularly after a player has delivered nine points in two back-to-back Gameweeks. Raphinha (£6.6m) for me still remains the best midfielder in his price range. The Brazilian...

... has recorded 20 big chance involvements in 28 matches this calendar year and remains in a league of his own when it comes to budget midfielders. He has overperformed his xG significantly – scoring five times despite a xG of just 2.7 which makes him one of the most...

... over performing midfielders this season. Having said that, he has no assists from an xA of 2.5 so is performing on par when it comes to his expected goal involvement (xGi). The fixtures coming up are tough – seven of his next 10 opponents are the top seven performing...

... clubs in terms of expected goals conceded this season. The exceptions are Arsenal and games against Spurs and Villa who are likely to improve on their defensive performances with new managers in charge...

... I think Raphinha is a perfectly reasonable hold, but if you have no other route to fund the likes of Jota or Foden, I’d sell.

Q: In this section, I cover the Spurs defence.

Spurs restricted Everton to just five shots in the box and had good defensive underlying numbers. Both Sergio Reguilón (£5.0m) and Emerson Royal (£4.9m) were playing as the wing backs and got into really promising positions...

... Reguilón was Spurs’ most advanced player as he recorded the highest number of touches in the final third among all Spurs players. He had the only big chance of the game to score which was created by Kane. Reguilón, by his own admission, has been told to get into...

... threatening positions by his manager and could represent a good option ahead of Spurs’ fixture swing:

“I’m enjoying the position because I can attack more! He [Conte] wants me to be solid in defence but at the same time I have to arrive in the box, help...

... the strikers, score goals, give assists. Now I have more of a chance to score goals and give assists so let’s work.”

Conte is known to be a quick starter. In his first ten games at each of these three clubs, these are the results he managed:

(Caveat to these stats being the difference in squad quality and lack of a pre-season at Spurs)

Juventus: 5 wins, 5 draws, 0 losses. 16 goals for, 7 against. 4 clean sheets.
Chelsea: 7 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. 21 goals for, 9 against. 5 clean sheets.

Inter: 8 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss. 21 goals for, 10 against. 4 clean sheets.

Conte’s team have done really well historically when it comes to defence. Chelsea recorded 16 clean sheets in the league in both of the seasons Conte was in charge. Similarly, Inter...

... recorded 15 and 14 clean sheets respectively in the two seasons Conte was their manager. Conte has had a lot of success working with the likes of Alonso, Moses and Hakimi in the past. At Inter, around 45% of his league goals were contributed in one way or the other by...

... his two wing backs. If the trend is to continue, both Emerson and Reguilon could be very appealing.

Q: In this section, I cover the Spurs attack.

I’d start by saying that I wouldn’t be put off by Leeds’ recent underlying numbers if I were to invest in a Spurs asset. Fact of the matter is that they have an average xG conceded of 2.5 against the top teams...

... this season (v Mun/Liv/Whm/Eve with DCL/Richarlison) as opposed to 1.0 in the other games. You’d expect Spurs to be a good team under Conte but it remains to be seen whether their attack clicks straightaway. As we have little statistical evidence to figure out who is the...

... better option between Son Heung-min (£10.3m) and Harry Kane (£12.2m), I’d list the pros of picking either and leave the choice to you to make:

Pros for Kane:

*He’s likely to be highly confident after having scored seven times over the international break, despite the...

... substandard nature of the opposition.

*It's apparent that Ronaldo is better than Bruno (xGi 5.4 v 4.1 since Ronaldo's arrival). Buying Kane right now makes it very easy to get to Ronaldo before Man United’s run of fixtures from Gameweek 16.

*Kane is a realistic captaincy option in Gameweek 15 when Liverpool have Wolves away and Spurs have Norwich at home. You’d back Kane over Son for captaincy for reliability.

*Kane is also likely to play 90 minutes, while Son has been subbed in both games – probably because of Conte’s intensive work-rate demands. Similar trends were witnessed with Lautaro Martinez and Lukaku where Martinez was more prone to substitutions.

*Conte has had his fair share of success working with strikers in his career – Romelu Lukaku scored 47 goals in 72 league appearances, Carlos Tevez scored 19 goals in 34 league appearances and Diego Costa scored 20 goals in 35 league appearances under him.

*During punditry for the Euro 2020, this is what Conte had to say about Kane: "As a coach, I'd always like to keep him in the box because that's where he is clinical."

Pros for Son:

*Easier to afford and fit in as he’s £2m cheaper

*I think this is the biggest pro for Son. With fixture congestion likely to kick in very shortly, a lot of fantasy managers will need squad depth. As Son is £2m cheaper, it’s much easier to have a reasonable bench with Son than with Kane...

...With Kane, you leave yourself at the risk of a bench which is too weak heading into the period where you need it the most.

Q: In this section, I cover Conor Gallagher and Emile Smith Rowe.

Gallagher v Smith Rowe

Stats per 90
Shots in the box: 1.5 v 1.3
Big chances: 0.7 v 0.1
Key passes: 1.9 v 1.5
xG: 0.4 v 0.2
xGi: 0.7 v 0.4
Penalty area touches: 3.4 v 2.9

This has been a very popularly asked question this week as lots of you are in the market for a budget midfielder! Surprisingly, the comparison is fairly one sided and eye-opening considering that Arsenal's best and Palace's worst fixture run have just passed!

I’m a stats man so Gallagher would be the pick for me – Gallagher is ranked fourth among midfielders for xG this season whereas Smith Rowe isn’t even in the top 15.

Q: In this section, I cover the Brentford attack.

Ivan Toney's (£6.7m) goal threat has been a big concern. He has had just two big chances (with the exception of penalties) in 11 matches so far and is ranked 36th in the league for xG-non penalty. Having said that, he...

... is third for big chances created so is heavily reliant on assists to keep ticking. I still think it’s worth persisting with Toney. His underlying numbers are still better than the alternatives in his price range whether it be Pukki, Eduoard, King, Wood or Hwang...

... What makes Toney a good asset to own at this point in time is the fact that he is completely nailed, on penalties and highly likely to play 90 minutes in every game – something which can’t be said about too many players once the fixture congestion kicks in. Eddie Howe is...

... known for playing expansive football and has never been known for his defensive organisation. Newcastle v Brentford could end up being an open game which might play into Brentford’s hands. Bryan Mbeumo (£5.6m) is still a good option to own by the same logic as well...

... He’s been underperforming on his xG this season so is due some luck! However, he spent the last quarter of the game v Norwich playing as a wing-back which is a bit concerning for his owners if the trend is to continue.

Q: What to do with Robert Sánchez?

I’d keep Sánchez (£4.6m) if I had the opportunity of playing a second keeper in the form of either Ben Foster or Brighton’s second choice keeper, Jason Steele, who Graham Potter confirmed would start v Villa. You know what you’re getting...

... with Brighton – they will keep producing clean sheets here and there to justify Sánchez’s value so I don’t think removing him is a high upside transfer. However, if you don’t have a second keeper, I’d look at selling Sánchez for either Aaron Ramsdale (£4.7m) or...

... Vicente Guaita (£4.6m). Ramsdale is the obvious pick. We’ve seen him rack up the saves in some of the difficult fixtures while in the easier fixtures, Arsenal have been reliable enough to trust.
Palace’s defence has been superb this season thus far – only...

... Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea have been faring better in terms of expected goals (xG) conceded. This is despite having faced tough opposition over the course of the season. They have a great run of fixtures coming up too, which makes Guaita appealing...

... Guaita has the best minutes per baseline bonus points ratio among Palace defenders too so is highly likely to accumulate bonus points whenever Palace are to keep him a clean sheet.

Q: Who are the best defenders to own?

Defenders

Touches in the final third per 90

(Gamweek 7 onwards i.e when Chilwell/James started playing)

1) James 40
2) Cancelo/Chilwell 36
3) Trent 31

Defenders

21/22

Expected goal involvement: (xGi)

1) Trent 4.5
2) Cancelo 3.8
3) James 3.6

I think the above set of statistics should be self-explanatory. Trent Alexander Arnold (£7.7m), Joao Cancelo (£6.5m), Reece James (£5.9m) and Ben Chilwell (£6m) are all standing out at the moment and I’d highly recommend everyone to own at least three of the four...

... Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea are the top three defences for xG conceded as well which makes these highly explosive options to own. Reece James in particular I want to write about a bit more. Even though the sample size is limited, he has the best...

... minutes per baseline bps ratio among the Chelsea defence which makes him a bit of a bonus magnet. His underlying numbers are a bit mental! See for yourself:

Reece James this season:

GW2: 8 pen area touches, 1.2 xGi, 2 big chance involvements
GW9: 3 pen area touches, 0.6 xGi, 1 big chance involvement
GW10: 7 pen area touches, 1.1 xGi, 1 big chance involvement
GW11: 6 pen area touches, 0.7 xGi, 1 big chance involvement

Here is my Fantasy5 team! I’ve spoken at length about the explosive potential of Trent and Cancelo which is why I feel they have the 8.5 target within their grasp, even without bonus points. Antonio I really fancy to do well against Wolves too, he’s surely due some points!

I also do a weekly podcast (@TheFPLWire) with @lateriser12 and @zophar666 where we cover everything FPL relevant for the GW. Catch the latest episode before GW12 here: 👇

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