🚨 The ERCOT Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy was mistakenly posted on the website momentarily. It will be posted again later this afternoon, presumably this is a Friday afternoon news dump ("take out the trash" day).
A quick takeaway #txlege #txenergy
h/t @AndrewDessler
A quick takeaway #txlege #txenergy
h/t @AndrewDessler
"The winter SARA includes a thermal generating unit outage assumption of 8,988 MW during the winter
months,..." We had 30GW of thermal outages last winter. It's fair to assume there would be less based on PUC weatherization rule but a 70% decrease? That's just not realistic.
months,..." We had 30GW of thermal outages last winter. It's fair to assume there would be less based on PUC weatherization rule but a 70% decrease? That's just not realistic.
SARA cont: "...which is based on historical winter outage data for the last three winter seasons: 2018/19,
2019/20, and partial 2020/21. (Unplanned outages between 2/15/21 to 2/28/21 are excluded in the
base analysis due to the exceptional impact of Winter Storm Uri.)"
2019/20, and partial 2020/21. (Unplanned outages between 2/15/21 to 2/28/21 are excluded in the
base analysis due to the exceptional impact of Winter Storm Uri.)"
So we will probably be fine if the weather isn't like last year. If it is like last year, not so much.
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