🚨 The ERCOT Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy was mistakenly posted on the website momentarily. It will be posted again later this afternoon, presumably this is a Friday afternoon news dump ("take out the trash" day).
A quick takeaway #txlege #txenergy
h/t @AndrewDessler
"The winter SARA includes a thermal generating unit outage assumption of 8,988 MW during the winter
months,..." We had 30GW of thermal outages last winter. It's fair to assume there would be less based on PUC weatherization rule but a 70% decrease? That's just not realistic.
SARA cont: "...which is based on historical winter outage data for the last three winter seasons: 2018/19,
2019/20, and partial 2020/21. (Unplanned outages between 2/15/21 to 2/28/21 are excluded in the
base analysis due to the exceptional impact of Winter Storm Uri.)" Image
So we will probably be fine if the weather isn't like last year. If it is like last year, not so much.

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More from @douglewinenergy

20 Nov
I’m deeply frustrated & concerned about the assessment of winter resource adequacy released by #ERCOT yesterday. *Everyone* agreed communication & planning needed improvement but yesterday demonstrated little has changed & it might be worse.
#txlege 1/🧵
dallasnews.com/news/politics/…
I was quoted in the @dallasnews on this assessment from ERCOT. “It’s a political document not reflective of reality,” I said and added that ERCOT’s quiet release of the report late Friday “speaks volumes.”

Allow me to explain. #energytwitter #txlege 2/18
The assessment released yesterday is not a reflection of reality.

Why? Let’s focus on two things in ERCOT's “extreme scenario:”

(1) Forecasted demand
(2) Thermal outages
#txlege 3/18
Read 19 tweets
19 Nov
Big day @PUCTX as two new concepts are introduced & discussed by Commissioners and stakeholders:

*Dispatchable Energy Credits from Cmsr McAdams
*Strategic Reserve Service from Cmsr Cobos

I'll tweet about it on this thread and put some key links below. #txlege #energytwitter
The dispatchable energy credits would come from a kind of Dispatchable Portfolio Standard akin to the Renewable Portfolio Standard and renewable energy credits. There are traded RECs for renewables, there could be traded credits for DECs soon.
interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/5237…
Cmsr Cobos proposal is to take a phased approach with a lot of quick actions to increase resilience and reliability while building toward a Strategic Reliability Service, mostly designed for winter, which is described here:
interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/5237…
#txenergy #txlege Image
Read 73 tweets
18 Nov
This is a regular open meeting, lots of water rates, tranmission siting, & the like.

Market redesign work session tmrw at 9:30. New proposal dropped by Cmsr @w_mcadams yesterday proposing "Disptachable Energy Credits".

More soon...
interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/5237…
#txlege #txenergy
There are public comments today. Haven't heard any public comments in many months. Emma Pabst speaks eloquently for #energyefficiency #demandresponse and public participation. Calls for a meeting targeted to helping the public understand what's going on at the @PUCTX
Misty O'Quinn not testifies to @PUCTX says her daughter had asthma during the outages and couldn't power her medical equipment. Called 911 but no one could come. Had to "slide" to the hospital to get help but they were on generators and it was cold there

"This shouldn't happen."
Read 9 tweets
15 Nov
As @POTUS signs the Infrastructure Investment & Jobs Act (aka Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal), a quick thread on what it *might* mean for Texas. There could be a lot more funding coming from the #BuildBackBetter package but here’s a look at what’s already passed
#txenergy #txlege
For each section, I have applied 9% of national funding to Texas. BUT, and this should be a question asked of all candidates in 2022, some of these funds are distributed through grants, not formulas.

If Texas doesn’t apply, our tax $ go to other states.
#txlege #txenergy 2/
One part I’ll be watching closely is the $5b in grid resilience funds, $1b per year, half to utilities, half to states. That’s $45m per year for 5 years for Texas to improve grid resilience *if* Texas policymakers pursue it. And another $45m/yr for Tx utilities. #txlege
Read 13 tweets
10 Nov
ERCOT's Jones tells Carrollton City Council: Generation fleet lost 50,000MW because of equipment failure and lack of fuel supply. That's equal to all of California's peak and was more than half of Texas' entire generation fleet.
#txlege #txenergy
When we lose supply, we have turn to the load side to keep balance. We turn to large facilities that have given us the ability to turn down their usage. (he's talking about #demandresponse which we need more of!!!) Once that's exhausted we have to turn off residential customers.
Read 37 tweets
4 Nov
This work session at the @PUCTX is starting now. I will tweet about the discussions throughout the day on this thread.

#energytwitter #txlege #txenergy
They begin by delaying a decision on HCAP, the $9000MWh price cap until they've decided on ORDC (Operating Reserve Demand Curve) as the two are related. Their analysis of ORDC change impacts is not ready so they will hold off on any decisions on either.
Long discussion here of ORDC. Cmsr. Glotfelty asks What is ORDC for? What problem are we trying to solve? Cmsr. McAdams makes the point that ORDC can incent distributed generation and demand response like at @HEB and @bucees. Talks about varying cooling load for freezers
Read 60 tweets

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