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19 Nov, 6 tweets, 5 min read
11/19 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* The Start of the Winter wave is here
* All the metrics are showing small increases
* Banking on the vaccines being effective and reducing the amplitude of the wave is looking increasingly like a pipe dream.

1/n
 .
11/19 Testing

Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete.

As of 11/09:
* Positivity rate rising to 4.47%
* Testing increasing 7DMA ~ 83.8K
* Positive Test 7DMA ~ 3748
* Covidestim Rt creeping up to 0.74

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
11/19 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Cases 7DMA is slowly increasing
* 7DMA of 2796 cases, rising 20% week over week
* Will start watching the amplitude of the wave.
* Probably will adjust my charting to compare Winters directly

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
11/19 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* Covid Admits slowly rising 11% Week over week the past several days. 358 per day 7DMA
* % of beds tagged as Covid still in the 4.3% range, total Covid census of 2730 beds
* 7DMA WoW rate of decline nearly 0%
.
covid-texas.csullender.com
.
4/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
11/19 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* CDC % of ED visits with C19 lines up with DSHS data
* ICU portion of the bed census is 950
* 2020 Winter Wave was well underway at this point, from cases through hosps & ICU. 2021 Winter is about to do the same thing

5/n
 . ImageImageImage
11/19 Conclusion

* Winter Wave is here
* Anecdotally - 2 people very close to me have Covid, one hospitalized, both vaxxed
* 2/3 of TX has either been vaxxed or infected or both
* Yet El Paso's wave has started off similar to 2020. Not a good sign

6/end
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More from @therealarod1984

therealarod1984 Profile picture
16 Nov
OSHA Mandate going to the Sixth Circuit is good news it appears.

11 GOP judges and 5 Dems in active service, senior judges are 10-3 GOP. All the activity I'm seeing on the Twitter verse from both sides say this court is pretty red.
.
6th Circuit covers Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, and Michigan FYI
"The Sixth Circuit is a favorable draw for mandate challengers, one of the best they could have hoped for...many Trump-appointed judges skeptical of broad assertions of agency authority..." said Sean Marotta, a lawyer at Hogan Lovells who follows multi-circuit issues closely.
Read 4 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
16 Nov
The 1) lawsuit and 2) preliminary injunction filed by 12 states in W. Louisiana yesterday against CMS - the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services

RE: Biden administration’s overreaching COVID-19 vaccine mandate for healthcare workers

THREAD 1/n

dojmt.gov/attorney-gener…
What is striking about this motion for preliminary injunction (basically a Stay), is how much of the language of the 5th Circuit's Stay vs OSHA is quoted.

Also I didn't realize CMS was attempting to use the Social Security Act as the legal justification for this Mandate.

2/n
 .
Overview of reasons why a STAY must be granted:

* At odds with the SSA
* Exceeds CMS's statutory authority
* Violates the SSA's prohibition on control of healthcare workers
* Violates the
** Spending Clause
** Anti-Commandeering Doctrine
** 10th Amendment

3/n
Read 18 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
15 Nov
11/14 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Declines have flattened across the board
* Start of a Winter wave appears imminent but size of the wave is TBD
* El Paso, Amarillo increasing, likely New Mexico related
* San Antonio, Houston still declining
* Rest of the state is flat

1/n
 .
11/14 Testing

* Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete
* Positivity rate continues slow decline but flattening, 4.22% as of 11/4
* Testing flattening ~ 80K / day
* Positive Test 7DMA ~ 3500
* Covidestim Rt still very low at 0.60

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
11/14 - Cases

* Cases 7DMA is flat. Lines up with the the more recent, incomplete testing numbers per 2/n
* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* 7DMA of 2403 cases, rising 5% week over week
* Were at that point where the Winter Wave started last year

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
13 Nov
The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals not only Stayed OSHA's mandate, they destroyed it, and laid down the legal groundwork for it to be easily struck down.

Might take a couple of days, but I'll go through the ruling page by page.

THREAD

1/n
dl.airtable.com/.attachments/d…
The ruling by Judge Engelhardt begins by going through the rarity and difficulty of OSHA using the Emergency Temporary Standard that they are utilizing for this Mandate. In 50 years of history, 10 ETSs have been issued, and only 1 survived.

2/n
 .
To grant a Stay, a court considers 4 factors. In this case, each of these factors favor a stay. The next several pages will delve into the four factors, starting with whether the challenge to the Mandate is likely to succeed.

3/n
Read 24 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
11 Nov
11/11 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Declines are slowing/flattening
* Winter wave watch continues
* Panhandle appears to be very flat to slowing rising
* El Paso rise is slowing somewhat
* Southern half of state continues steep decline

1/n
 .
11/11 Testing

* Remember, tests are filed by date of specimen collection
* Anything < 7-8 days old is incomplete
* Pos% continues decline, 4.39% as of 11/1
* Testing declines to @ 574K per week as of 11/1
* Positive Test 7DMA below 3600 per day
* Covidestim Rt - 0.58

2/n ImageImageImageImage
11/11 - Cases

* Cases have flattened out in the past few days
* Looking at the more recent, incomplete testing numbers per 2/n, not seeing same yet
* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* 7DMA of 2384 cases, declining 5% week over week
* Will watch

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
8 Nov
11/8 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* No stopping the declines except;
* El Paso showing a bump. Is it leading the way for a winter wave for the 2nd straight year?

1/n
 .
11/8 Indicators

* Total positivity rate continues decline, 4.60% as of 10/29, as a large batch of negative tests hit yesterday
* Testing peaked 9/13 @ 1.12M tests/week. As of 10/29, down to @ 587K per week
* Positive Test 7DMA below 3900 per day
* Covidestim Rt - 0.56

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
11/8 - Cases

* As positive tests continue to decline, so do cases
* 7DMA of 2335 cases, declining 16% week over week.
* A very small rise from this very low number over the weekend, we will watch to see if that continues.

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets

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