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Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
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1 Nov, 4 tweets, 3 min read
The Colorado Supreme Court has approved the state's new congressional map: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The map creates 4 πŸ”΅ seats, 3 πŸ”΄ seats, and 1 🟣 seat. It has a slight GOP bias; Dems could have drawn themselves a much better map if they hadn't voted to create an independent commission. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Hispanic advocacy groups are upset with the map, however, because it doesn't have a plurality-Hispanic seat (CO is 21% Hispanic). The closest is the new #CO08, which has a 35% Hispanic VAP. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Colorado is the 7th state to complete congressional redistricting nationwide! projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

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Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
1 Nov
Finally, after further research, we have determined that Arkansas's map IS law and we've marked it as such. That makes 8 completed states. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
As @RedistrictNet pointed out, the new Arkansas map went from a "bill" to an "act" on Oct. 13, per the legislature's website: arkleg.state.ar.us/Bills/Detail?i… ...
In Arkansas, if the governor doesn't sign or veto a bill, it becomes law 20 days after the legislature adjourns IF the bill is delivered to the gov within 5 days of adjournment. But our friends at All About Redistricting discovered that that doesn't apply here…
Read 6 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
29 Oct
Late last night, the Illinois legislature passed a 4th iteration of their new congressional map. Analyzed here: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
As with previous versions, it is heavily biased toward Democrats. There are 13 πŸ”΅ seats, 3 πŸ”΄ seats, and 1 🟣 seats. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The map wreaks havoc with a lot of incumbents, especially Republicans. For instance, Mike Bost and Mary Miller are double-bunked in #IL12. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 6 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
28 Oct
The latest (final?) proposed congressional map in Illinois is up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight It's very similar to the previous proposal: 13 πŸ”΅ seats, 3 πŸ”΄ seats, and just 1 🟣 seat. It has an efficiency gap of D+13. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The map makes #IL13, currently held by GOPer Rodney Davis, light blue. Davis could choose to run in neighboring #IL15 but that might set up an incumbent-vs-incumbent primary (either Davis-LaHood or LaHood-Kinzinger in #IL16). projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
25 Oct
Texas has become the 5th state to complete congressional redistricting. Here's its new map! projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The new Texas map creates 24 πŸ”΄, 13 πŸ”΅, and 1 🟣 seat. It has an efficiency gap of R+15 and a median-seat bias of R+12, signs of a pro-Republican gerrymander. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Hispanic-rights groups have filed two lawsuits over the new Texas map, though, so this may not be over yet. The map did not create any new minority-opportunity districts. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 5 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
25 Oct
Illinois Democrats' new proposed congressional map is up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight I'd call it an even more aggressive gerrymander than their first proposed map. While it has a similar D+13 efficiency gap, it creates 13 πŸ”΅ seats, 3 πŸ”΄ seats, and only 1 🟣 seat (#IL17). projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The map puts GOP Rep. Rodney Davis in a Dem-leaning seat & sets up a likely GOP incumbent-vs-GOP incumbent primary. It also creates a new majority-Hispanic #IL03 at the expense of Marie Newman, who's thrown in with Sean Casten. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 5 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
27 Sep
Texas Republicans' proposed congressional map is up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The map shores up #TX07, #TX28, #TX32, and #TX34 for Dems and adds a new solid-blue #TX37 in Austin. In exchange, #TX02, #TX03, #TX06, #TX10, #TX21, #TX22, #TX23, #TX24, and #TX31 are made safer for their Republican incumbents.
Dem Rep. Vicente Gonzalez's #TX15 also becomes a bit redder, but still a tossup, under this map. I wonder if he moves over to the safe blue #TX34, whence Rep. Filemon Vela is retiring. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 4 tweets

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