11/22 Texas C19 Update


* Thanksgiving week will suppress the published numbers this week
* The number to watch will be positivity rate which is in a slow climb
* Winter wave is here but will be hard to know extent until ~Dec 1

11/22 Testing

Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete.

As of 11/12:
* Pos rate rising to 4.70%
* Testing & positives are flat. Interesting to see if testing surges between 11/13-11/18, before the break
* Covidestim Rt down to 0.65

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11/22 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Cases 7DMA almost flat at 2697. Cases will be lower than actual due to the holiday. People don't go to the doctor over the break
* Look at dips in charts, it happens at every major holiday

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11/22 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* Covid Admits almost flat Week over week. 348 per day 7DMA
* % of beds tagged as Covid still in the 4.2% range, total Covid census of 2618 beds
* Same thing here. People avoid the hospital during the holidays
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11/22 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* ICU portion of the bed census is 896. Lowest since July 15
* The Winter Wave rise is going to be masked for a week. Especially in 7DMA metrics.
* But its great to see these super low hospitalization numbers

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11/22 Conclusion

* Winter Wave is here, but the numbers wont show it because of Thanksgiving week.
* Won't really know the extent of the wave until Dec 1, except for watching Positivity rate. But that is no good until 9-10 days back, so...
* Enjoy the holidays


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More from @therealarod1984

19 Nov
11/19 Texas C19 Update


* The Start of the Winter wave is here
* All the metrics are showing small increases
* Banking on the vaccines being effective and reducing the amplitude of the wave is looking increasingly like a pipe dream.

11/19 Testing

Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete.

As of 11/09:
* Positivity rate rising to 4.47%
* Testing increasing 7DMA ~ 83.8K
* Positive Test 7DMA ~ 3748
* Covidestim Rt creeping up to 0.74

. ImageImageImageImage
11/19 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Cases 7DMA is slowly increasing
* 7DMA of 2796 cases, rising 20% week over week
* Will start watching the amplitude of the wave.
* Probably will adjust my charting to compare Winters directly

. ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
16 Nov
OSHA Mandate going to the Sixth Circuit is good news it appears.

11 GOP judges and 5 Dems in active service, senior judges are 10-3 GOP. All the activity I'm seeing on the Twitter verse from both sides say this court is pretty red.
6th Circuit covers Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, and Michigan FYI
"The Sixth Circuit is a favorable draw for mandate challengers, one of the best they could have hoped for...many Trump-appointed judges skeptical of broad assertions of agency authority..." said Sean Marotta, a lawyer at Hogan Lovells who follows multi-circuit issues closely.
Read 4 tweets
16 Nov
The 1) lawsuit and 2) preliminary injunction filed by 12 states in W. Louisiana yesterday against CMS - the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services

RE: Biden administration’s overreaching COVID-19 vaccine mandate for healthcare workers


What is striking about this motion for preliminary injunction (basically a Stay), is how much of the language of the 5th Circuit's Stay vs OSHA is quoted.

Also I didn't realize CMS was attempting to use the Social Security Act as the legal justification for this Mandate.

Overview of reasons why a STAY must be granted:

* At odds with the SSA
* Exceeds CMS's statutory authority
* Violates the SSA's prohibition on control of healthcare workers
* Violates the
** Spending Clause
** Anti-Commandeering Doctrine
** 10th Amendment

Read 18 tweets
15 Nov
11/14 Texas C19 Update


* Declines have flattened across the board
* Start of a Winter wave appears imminent but size of the wave is TBD
* El Paso, Amarillo increasing, likely New Mexico related
* San Antonio, Houston still declining
* Rest of the state is flat

11/14 Testing

* Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete
* Positivity rate continues slow decline but flattening, 4.22% as of 11/4
* Testing flattening ~ 80K / day
* Positive Test 7DMA ~ 3500
* Covidestim Rt still very low at 0.60

. ImageImageImageImage
11/14 - Cases

* Cases 7DMA is flat. Lines up with the the more recent, incomplete testing numbers per 2/n
* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* 7DMA of 2403 cases, rising 5% week over week
* Were at that point where the Winter Wave started last year

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Read 6 tweets
13 Nov
The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals not only Stayed OSHA's mandate, they destroyed it, and laid down the legal groundwork for it to be easily struck down.

Might take a couple of days, but I'll go through the ruling page by page.



The ruling by Judge Engelhardt begins by going through the rarity and difficulty of OSHA using the Emergency Temporary Standard that they are utilizing for this Mandate. In 50 years of history, 10 ETSs have been issued, and only 1 survived.

To grant a Stay, a court considers 4 factors. In this case, each of these factors favor a stay. The next several pages will delve into the four factors, starting with whether the challenge to the Mandate is likely to succeed.

Read 24 tweets
11 Nov
11/11 Texas C19 Update


* Declines are slowing/flattening
* Winter wave watch continues
* Panhandle appears to be very flat to slowing rising
* El Paso rise is slowing somewhat
* Southern half of state continues steep decline

11/11 Testing

* Remember, tests are filed by date of specimen collection
* Anything < 7-8 days old is incomplete
* Pos% continues decline, 4.39% as of 11/1
* Testing declines to @ 574K per week as of 11/1
* Positive Test 7DMA below 3600 per day
* Covidestim Rt - 0.58

2/n ImageImageImageImage
11/11 - Cases

* Cases have flattened out in the past few days
* Looking at the more recent, incomplete testing numbers per 2/n, not seeing same yet
* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* 7DMA of 2384 cases, declining 5% week over week
* Will watch

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Read 7 tweets

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