Thread by @KanitkarT

Talk on “Keeping 1.5 deg. C Alive” at #COP26 was not recorded. But here is a summary of the talk and discussion after. A thread. @tjayaraman @nit_set @JMauskar @rishpardikar @3rdworldnetwork @bforboseman @Peters_Glen @KevinClimate @moefcc @HarryWinkler

1/n A reminder of why CBDR. Why Articles 3.1, 4.3-4.7? Where were we in 1990? 71% of emissions by 18% of global population in developed countries. Situation has not changed much between 1991 and 2019, except perhaps for China.

2/n Historical emissions responsible for 1.1 deg. C warming already. Over 2/3rds of the temperature target already gone. COP decision acknowledges this. But who is responsible? Net-zero calls miss the real story.

3/n Only 17% of the total budget for even a 50% chance of 1.5 deg. C left. 500 GtCO2 left for the future (~2500 emitted till 2019). US and EU alone (11% of global population) responsible for 43% of emissions till 2019. NDCs imply that they will use 31% of the remaining 500 Gt.

4/n US posturing as climate leader, helped along by positive assessments pre-COP26 by other reports @UNEP Emissions Gap Report, @climateactiontr But what is the reality? US, fair share vs. pledges vs. actual in Figure. 1990 onwards.

5/n Inaction and constant shifting of goalposts a common element across the richest countries. See emissions chart for non-EIT Annex-I between 1990 and 2019, with shifting of mitigation targets to future

6/n India began COP with enhanced pledge. Asked for matching ambition from developed countries. However, no ambition, no compliance, and no urgency from developed countries -on mitigation, tech transfer, or finance.

7/n Concerted effort to squeeze as much mitigation out of developed countries as possible. The coal story an example. Phase out (down) of coal, not all fossil fuels because oil and gas use high in developed countries. See Table.

8/n New narrative: “This is an opportunity”. India has done well on RE because it is SO cheap. Really? Why is it an opportunity only for developing countries. Why new investments in natural gas in the Global North? RE has costs and tariff implications. See Table.

9/n Safeguarding right to use domestically available resources important. Developed countries cannot free-ride on developing country efforts. It’s an uncertain technology future. Rhetoric cannot drown out reality. Green development a necessity, not an opportunity. Who will pay?

@threadreaderapp please unroll

the sentence should read "Concerted effort to squeeze as much mitigation out of developing countries as possible"

Another error in Table in 7/n. Apologies. India share of the global population is 17.87% (not 18.87).