Thread by @miamalan

[Thread] What is the potential impact of the new B.1.1.529 #COVID19 variant?
@rjlessells:
1. It's relatively simple to detect some B.1.1.529 cases, as it's possible to use PCR tests to do this in some cases
2. B.1.1.529 = has many mutations across different parts of the virus

2. Some of the mutations of the B.1.1.529 variant are situated around the spike protein that might affect how well our antibodies neutralise the #SARSCoV2 virus (so it might escape immunity to some extent).

3. Some of the mutations of B.1.1.529 look similar to mutations that have been found on other variants of concern that enhance those variants' transmissibility.

4. Here's how variants have spread in SA:
1. Light gray: lots of different types of virus (1st wave)
2. Green: 2nd wave (Beta)
3. Red: Delta, 3rd wave
4. Yellow: C.1.2 (still detected at low levels, but not increasing)
5. Blue: B.1.1.529 (increasing fast)

5. Currently B.1.1.529 is most prominent in GP, but it's been detected in other provinces, particularly NW and LP.

6. Because of one of the mutations on B.1.1.529, the variant can be detected by PCR tests (so even before the genomes are sequenced). Cases are increasing fast.

7. The rapid increase in B.1.1.529 cases is not just seen in GP, but also in other provinces, although the increases in other provinces are lower (those increases are based on smaller samples than in GP).

8. Scientists = trying to figure out the impact of B.1.1.529's mutations. What could it potentially do (we don't know yet)?
* Be more transmissible
* Reduce the protection that vaccines and natural immunity offer
* Cause milder or more severe disease

9. ON Tuesday scientists started with lab work to determine what exactly B.1.1.529 can and can't do (e.g. make it easier to contract #SARSCoV2, escape immunity or cause milder or more severe disease)

10. Summary:
1. We're starting to see generalised community transmission (as opposed to just cluster outbreaks)
2. Tomorrow @WHO will assign a Greek name to B.1.1.529
3. We don't yet know for sure, but it looks like B.1.1.529 might be more transmissible and escape immunity.