Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW13 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I address the most common dilemmas in the FPL community before we head into GW13:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @officialfpl

Feel free to like and share if you find it to be helpful ❤️

Before I start, I'd like to introduce you to this game called Fantasy5.

It’s free to enter, with a £10k weekly prize. All you have to do is to pick 5 players that you think will beat their Fantasy points target. I find it to be a lot of fun! Link: 👇

fantasy5.com

All numbers, images and comparisons that I use in my analysis have been taken from @ffh_hq.

You can get access to these by signing up through the link below: 👇

fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/bigmanbakar/73

Q: Who are the best Ben Chilwell replacements?

Reece James:

If you don't have him, then Reece James (£6.1m) is the obvious Chilwell replacement. He's averaging one attacking return in his previous seven starts for club and country having scored four times and assisted thrice...

...Since GW7, James is averaging 13.25 FPL points per start and when you look at Chelsea play, at no point will you feel as if he has under-achieved. It’s no coincidence that over 40% of Chelsea’s goals this season have been contributed by their defenders either one way or the...

... other. I see no reason not to own him at this point as he's in the form of his life. I would suggest getting him in, even if takes a hit to get there. The points will be made up in no time!

I further talk about his credentials:

Defenders

Touches in the final third per 90

(Last six Gameweeks, minimum 4 starts)

1) James 38
2) Cancelo 36
3) Chilwell 33
4) Alexander Arnold 29

Defenders

21/22

Expected goal involvement per 90: (xGi per 90)

1) James/Alexander Arnold 0.6
2) Chilwell 0.5
3) Cancelo 0.4

I think the above set of statistics should be self-explanatory...

... In my opinion, all of Trent Alexander Arnold (£7.8m), Joao Cancelo (£6.6m), Reece James (£6.1m) are all must haves in FPL at the moment. Liverpool and Chelsea are the top three defences for xG conceded which further strengthens their case:

xG conceded:

21/22

1) Man City 7.9
2) Liverpool 13.2
3) Chelsea 13.4

I think an under-rated thing about James has been his ability to accumulate bonus points - he has the best mins to baseline BPS ratio among the Chelsea defenders this season which is why you saw him...

... register three bonus points at the weekend despite Chilwell and Rudiger matching him for attacking returns. With the exception of the Leicester game where he was lucky to have registered an assist despite having an expected goal involvement of just 0.1, his underlying...

... numbers in every match he has played so far have been a bit mental! See for yourself:

Reece James this season:

GW2: 8 pen area touches, 1.2 xGi, 2 big chance involvements
GW9: 3 pen area touches, 0.6 xGi, 1 big chance involvement

GW10: 7 pen area touches, 1.1 xGi, 1 big chance involvement
GW11: 6 pen area touches, 0.7 xGi, 1 big chance involvement

Once again, this week the fixture against Man United is a matchup in his favor. No team has conceded more chances down their left than Man Utd in the last...

... six GWs so chances are that those fantasy managers who buy James this week could be rewarded immediately.

Marcos Alonso:

"Yeah, it’s my fault. Hopefully Marcos doesn’t take this personally. I wanted Azpi on the field. Every game we have the conversation, does he play or not. He's been so unlucky since a pain in his shoulder. We said we were bringing him on for Reece James then we...

... had to bring him on the left and somebody said it was Marcos so I am sorry to him."

Thomas Tuchel cleared the air on why Marcos Alonso (£5.6m) wasn't brought on for Ben Chilwell last night. It seems as if he didn't give much thought to the fact that Alonso was the like...

... for like replacement for Chilwell as Azpilicueta was all set to come on. The Spaniard has three goals and two assists in 14 league starts under Tuchel, averaging an attacking return almost once in three games. His underlying numbers in six starts this season have been...

... decent, but still fall short of the high standards that the other wing backs have set:

James v Chilwell v Alonso

Stats per 90

Shots in the box: 1.3 v 1.6 v 1
Chances created: 2.8 v 1.7 v 2
Touches in the final third: 35 v 33 v 26
xG: 0.3 v 0.5 v 0.2
xGi: 0.6 v 0.5 v 0.3

Sergio Reguilón (£5.1m):

This is the differential route if you want to go down this way. Reguilón has been playing as a wing back under Conte and has found himself in really promising positions since the Italian has been in charge. Reguilón, by his own admission, has...

... been told to get into threatening positions by his manager and could represent a good option ahead of a good run of fixtures for Spurs:

“I’m enjoying the position because I can attack more! He [Conte] wants me to be solid in defence but at the same time I have to arrive...

... in the box, help the strikers, score goals, give assists. Now I have more of a chance to score goals and give assists so let’s work.”

Conte has had a lot of success working with the likes of Marcos Alonso, Victor Moses and Achraf Hakimi in the past. At Inter, around...

... 45% of his league goals were contributed in one way or the other by his two wing backs. If the trend is to continue, both Emerson and Reguilon could be very appealing...

... So far, Reguilón has bettered Emerson for touches in the final third (47 v 37), chances created (2 v 0), big chance involvements (2 v 0) and penalty area touches (8 v 6) in both of Conte's games in charge.

Q: In this section I cover Diogo Jota, Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva.

With Roberto Firmino sidelined with injury, Diogo Jota (£7.5m) becomes an option that is simply too good to ignore. Liverpool have been statistically the best attack in the league this season when it...

... comes to shots in the box, big chances and xG. Having a piece of that pie for just £7.5m makes me think that getting in Jota is a transfer of the highest priority at the moment. With Champions League qualification already secured and the possibility of Mane and Salah...

... leaving early around late December, he could turn out to be an option for the long term.

I would wait till Pep’s press conference before deciding what to do with Phil Foden (£8.3m). If he’s fit, I would keep him. I have seen quite a few considering Foden to Jota but...

... for me, it's a case of both and not one or the other. I like what I have seen from City and fully expect them to go on a run. It's evident that Foden is first choice, he might be rested in a game here or there but will make it up in the weeks he plays.

Foden v Bernardo

21/22

Stats per 90

Shots in the box: 2.2 v 1.3
Key passes: 1.6 v 1.3
xG: 0.43 v 0.34
xGi: 0.8 v 0.6

Bernardo Silva (£7.2m) is a good option in isolation. He’s second only to Cancelo for FPL points this season and seems to have gone under the radar. I wouldn't sell Foden for him (if fit) though, not even to release funds. Think he's the better, the more explosive pick.

Q: Should Michail Antonio be sold ahead of a tough run of fixtures?

This is the toughest decision of the week. Michail Antonio (£8.2m) has tough upcoming fixtures coming up and his recent numbers have been dropped:

Antonio

GW1-6 v GW7-12

Stats per 90

Shots in the box: 4.2 v 1.6
Big chances: 1.6 v 0.4
xG: 0.96 v 0.22
xGi: 1.5 v 0.3

On paper, it looks like an easy sell but there aren't too many forwards who are standing out at the moment. Despite his drop in numbers, Antonio...

... still remains top among forwards for xG and big chances this season. There’s also the fact that you would want him ahead of West Ham’s fixture swing in GW18 and would have to use an extra transfer to sell him and then buy him back at possibly a higher price.
Whether you...

... should sell him should be team dependent. I would want Harry Kane (£12.2m) ahead of his fixtures coming up, so if Antonio is your route to the likes of Kane, James and Jota, I’d sell. Else I don’t think he’s a hard sell.

Q: Who are the best budget midfielders to own?

Gallagher v Bowen v Smith Rowe v Mbeumo v Cornet

Stats per 90

Shots in the box: 1.5 v 1.8 v 1.2 v 1.6 v 1.6
xG: .38 v .35 v .18 v .25 v .37
Key passes: 2 v 1.7 v 1.4 v 1.3 v 1
Expected involvement (xGi): .7 v .6 v .3 v .4 v .5

Max Cornet’s (£6.1m) underlying numbers are great for a budget midfielder. However, his present level of returns when compared with his expected data suggest overperformance and make current rate of returns unsustainable. He has already scored five in six starts despite an xG...

... of 1.85. Conor Gallagher (£6.0m) seems to be the best option. He created two big chances v Burnley and could have actually come out of that game with two assists than one. Jarrod Bowen (£6.4m) is another one I like but I’d look at him once West Ham’s fixtures improve.

Q: Who are the best budget forwards to own?

Forwards

Big chances (Last four Gameweeks)

King/Benteke 7
Aubameyang 4
Jiménez 3
Toney/Vardy/Ronaldo 2

As you can see, the numbers that the forwards have been putting up in recent times have been uninspiring...

... Christian Benteke (£6.4m) and Josh King (£5.6m) are the names who stand out. It’s worth noting that during this spell of four Gameweeks, Palace and Watford are ranked fifth and fourth for xG respectively. There’s a feel good-factor around Palace at the moment...

... Only Salah has more goals than Benteke in the last five and by his own admission:

“As you can see, it’s going fantastically for the club in a short space of time. The way we are playing is nice to watch. We are creating more chances, so for me as a striker, it is a...

... pleasure to be up front.”

He’s not completely nailed as Vieira likes to tinker with his forwards but he should start at home to Villa. Chances are that new owners might be rewarded immediately as Palace have been averaging 2.5 big chances at home per game this season...

... King has played every minute that he has been available for under Ranieri so far and has had at least one big chance in three of the previous four games. He’s perhaps more nailed than Benteke in the long run as the African Cup of Nations could impact on the availability...

... of Sarr and Dennis. There’s a good chance that King might be on penalties too after Sarr failed to take his opportunity v Man United.

Q: In this section, I cover Ivan Toney, Bryan Mbeumo and emphasize on the importance of a playable bench ahead of the fixture congestion.

Big chances conceded (Last six Gameweeks)

1) Everton 21
2) Man Utd 17
3) Villa 16

Everton's chances conceded:
Centrally 44%, Left 24%, Right 32%

This collapse in defensive numbers for Everton coincides with their injuries who will be weakened further this Gameweek as both Demarai Gray and Richarlison are set to miss out. I don't think this is the week to...

... be benching or selling either Bryan Mbeumo (£5.6m) or Ivan Toney (£6.7m). Toney missed a big chance to score v Newcastle while frustratingly, Mbuemo hit the post for the seventh time this season. I still think they will offer good value though. They play for an attacking...

... team and are cheap enough to be benched when need be. With the fixtures coming thick and fast, squad depth will be very important which is why I like owning these kinds of assets at this time of the year. With quick turnarounds, the significant majority of assets will get...

... rested in the Christmas period. In my opinion, a stronger bench than owning Livramento and two fillers will be required.

Q: Should Raphinha be sold ahead of a tough run of fixtures?

This is a tough discussion to be had particularly after a player has delivered nine points in his previous two starts. Raphinha (£6.7m) for me still remains the best midfielder in his price range. The Brazilian has...

... recorded 20 big chance involvements in 28 matches this calendar year and remains in a league of his own when it comes to budget midfielders. He has overperformed his xG significantly – scoring five times despite a xG of just 2.7 which makes him one of the most...

... over performing midfielders this season. Having said that, he has no assists from an xA of 2.5 so is performing on par when it comes to his expected goal involvement (xGi). The fixtures coming up are tough – four of his next five fixtures are against...

... Brighton, Chelsea, Man City and Crystal Palace who have been some of the better defences this season. I think Raphinha is a perfectly reasonable hold, but if you have no other route to fund the likes of Jota, I’d sell.

Here is my Fantasy5 team! Mané may not be getting the attention in FPL but his predicted target here is easier than Salah which is why I have selected him. Jorginho only needs a penalty and a clean sheet to achieve his target so I'd back him to beat his target of 7.5 points too.

I also do a weekly podcast (@TheFPLWire) with @lateriser12 and @zophar666 where we cover everything FPL relevant for the GW. Catch the latest episode before GW13 here: 👇

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