⚠️TRIPLING HOSPITALIZATIONS IN 2 WEEKS—In #Omicron epicenter of Gauteng Province, South Africa🇿🇦, there is more than **tripling of #COVID19 hospitalizations** in 2 weeks—➡️ from 135 hospital admissions to 418. This is data directly from 🇿🇦’s CDC @nicd_sa🧵
2) here is the exact #COVID19 hospitalizations breakdown for Gauteng Province by both public and private hospitals. It’s increasing equally - tripling in both classes of hospitals. This is not just a surveillance issue. Trust the @nicd_sa data first. nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…
3) breakdown many #COVID19 patients currently hospitalized / in ICU / on ventilator in Gauteng 🇿🇦—747 hospitalized, 57 in ICU, and 23 on a ventilator. @nicd_sa doesn’t give the time series for all of these. It’s still early. Less hope it doesn’t rise further.
4) Of the 747 currently hospitalized with #COVID19 in Gauteng Province (#B11529 epicenter of South Africa), 137 of the 747 hospitalized COVID patients are receiving “high care” or ICU care— or 18%.
5) of the 747 hospitalized for #COVID19 in #Omicron epicenter of Gauteng Province, 140 are receiving oxygen or on a ventilator—19%.
6) most recently, positivity in Gauteng soared from 1% to 30% in 2 weeks.
7) As a reminder, Gauteng Province is the epicenter of #Omicron where genome sequencing revealed it to now “becoming dominant” over even Delta.
8) Don’t let the misinformation hit ya without double checking the data first. The “Omicron is mild” was based on an out of context quote.
9) Also, don’t forget the well known lag between cases ==> hospitalization ==> then death. Cases have soared 6x already…. Hospitalizations are rising (see top), and death is a lagging indicator.

Figure by @Antonio_Caramia
10) South Africa 🇿🇦 is also reporting most young #COVID19 patients are unvaccinated- 65%. And majority of the remainder are only partially vaxxed.
11) 💡Nota Bene in epidemiology— We also know that a more infectious disease that seriously harms fewer of those infected but infect more people ➡️ will ultimately maim more people (a greater absolute number seriously ill) than a high severity disease that is less infectious. 👀
12) When I see a 🧬mutation divergence tree like this, it gives me pause. #Omicron is leaps & bounds different than other #SARSCoV2 variants. Evolution selected this unique combination for a reason—it wasn’t a regular rate of accumulating mutation errors. This is why the caution.
13) Beware the misinformation about it being “mild”. That’s a poorly quoted excerpt. And it’s not based on actual hospitalization data (see top post above). Don’t be misled.
14) Feel free to fact check the hospitalization data I posted. Someone dug and tried to verify every number I posted on the 🇿🇦 Gauteng Province #OmicronVariant epicenter’s hospitalization.

P.s. If I ever make a materially sig factual error, I’m always happy to update/repost.
15) Here was @WHO’s official stances on all aspects of #Omicron — they still don’t know. But they acknowledge the increased hospitalizations is something to watch out for. We will have more epidemiological studies soon. Stay tuned.
16) Let’s hypothetically suppose it is “milder”—but Even if it’s milder than delta, the increased transmissibility and/or immune escape would still make it more dangerous than delta. Exponentially more cases is still exponentially more hospitalizations & deaths! ~@lisa_iannattone
17) WHO’s #Omicron assessment statement for November 28th, 2021: who.int/news/item/28-1…
18) UPDATE— the #COVID19 hospitalization surge is now 4x in 2 weeks. Late reporting upped it from 3x yesterday to 4x today in the #Omicron-epicenter of Gauteng Province 🇿🇦. This is an acceleration it seems.

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More from @DrEricDing

29 Nov
LISTEN UP—The world needs to hear the voices of South African scientists calling for help. I sure have. If South African scientists can’t work, then the world suffers. I call on world leaders to lift travel bans (its too late now)—& instead use ✈️ border entry tests. 🙏 @Tuliodna
2) I’ve recently called for international arrivals testing instead of travel bans. Given #Omicron is worldwide already now, it’s the most fair thing to do. Lift the bans - use entry testing, followup testing, and short term quarantine if necessary.
3) one of South Africa’s leading epidemiologists says releasing travel bans must come first before donations of reagents.
Read 4 tweets
29 Nov
Hundreds of ✈️ passengers that landed in Amsterdam🇳🇱 (61 COVID, 13 #Omicron) were crammed for hours together with “no masks, no distancing—300 of us in a waiting room which was not very large, tight against each other." Negatives just released—no followup!
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/… ImageImage
2) Confirmed by also NYT reporter who was there. All crammed in unventilated room without mask compliance. What a mess
3) These passengers waited 6 hours on the tarmac and then 10 hours for their test results - all while many gave up on masks. And they they were all released no quarantine. I’m going to say this was a complete screw up of Netherlands 🇳🇱 govt.
Read 5 tweets
29 Nov
Folks—as much as life is unpredictable, we should try to have empathy for others & show kindness to strangers—and to help each other whenever we can when others in need. I was given a second chance in life, so I believe in karma & paying it forward. 🙏
Many folks don’t understand why I tweet. Some think I’m a fearmonger, or think I’m some opportunist, or think I’m a CCP spy. They are wrong. ➡️instead, this is who I am—I was given a second shot at life—saving lives & public health is my life mission: well.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/08/a-w…
3) I did this in Jan 2020 at great personal cost and professional peril… but I did it anyway. Maybe history one day will be more kind. nymag.com/intelligencer/…
Read 4 tweets
28 Nov
📍”MARKED CHANGE”—In South Africa 🇿🇦: “Young people, in their 20s to late 30s, are coming in with moderate to severe disease, some needing intensive care. About 65% are not vaccinated—most of the rest are only half-vaccinated”. ➡️#GetVaccinatedNow #Omicron pbs.org/newshour/healt…
2) Yes I’m aware of conflicting reports. But I’m citing PBS / AP - reputable sources. The disinfo on other side saying it’s “mild” is from manipulating quotes.
3) Here is the full context of those who claimed it was “mild”. Different doctors see diff patients. I know for a fact that hospitalizations are rising in the Gauteng epicenter province. I’ll share a graph later.
Read 4 tweets
28 Nov
BREAKING—13 #Omicron variant cases now confirmed from 61 #COVID19 cases among ~600 passengers on two flights from South Africa to Amsterdam 🇳🇱(that took off and was mid-air when EU travel limits added). Dutch government warns there will likely be more. bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
2) Overnight, Germany also added a confirmed case (suspected yesterday) along with Italy 🇮🇹, and previously Australia just recently. Austria and Denmark now have probables. bnonews.com/index.php/2021…
3) the two Australia 🇦🇺 cases also just came off of Qatar Airways flights from South Africa 🇿🇦 via Doha. The earlier Hong Kong 🇭🇰 cases also were on @qatarairways via Doha. ➡️ I think @DohaAirport needs to do more screenings as well.
Read 5 tweets
28 Nov
NEW—Australia 🇦🇺 confirms its first 2 cases of #Omicron variant in New South Wales (Sydney region) among flight ✈️ passengers returning from South Africa 🇿🇦, aboard a Qatar Airways flight via Doha. All 260 aboard now isolating. 14 days hotel quarantine for those from S Africa. 🧵
2) This adds to the flurry of new / probable #Omicron cases identified in the past 2 days. It’s definitely global now
3) I warned that it was already global outside of SubSaharan Africa when we immediately noticed the Belgium 🇧🇪 case has zero travel to Southern Africa. And it was weeks ago. Millions fly out every week in Africa. It was inevitable if we respond so late.
Read 4 tweets

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