Thread by @redistrictAZ

Countdown to #FairDistricts - 22 DAYS!
Waiting for @ArizonaIRC business meeting to begin. This evening is a public hearing on the draft maps in Avondale and Pine Top. More details here: irc.az.gov/public-meeting…

Oh wait - here they are -- what did we miss? On Item agenda #5! WTF? is this #Transparency?

Geneal mapping update - 201 published plans. Q: how many have the @ArizonaIRC actually considered? not more than a handful. Not a great way to generate public trust.

I am so offended by them patting themselves on the back for these "metrics".

Now Doug Johnson - Running Primary Elections - 2018 Gov Dem Primary to id where polarization. References a cover sheet. Note: These have not been made public!
In 7.1 - CD 7 - is polarized in all three elections.

In CD 3 - polarized in 2018 Gov, an on the edge of polarization in AG race.
In 7.2 - CD 7 - not polarized in 2018 AG race
in 7.2 CD - not polarized in any election

In LD 23, 24, 26 - polarized only in 2018 Gove election

Gee - it sure would be great if the public had access

to the same information. THAT would be #transparency. Without that - @ndc_doug is saying blah, blah, blah because it is impossible to track it. Lots of associated data.

Ah, seems like @ArizonaIRC commissioners have also not seen any reports. #Unprofessional

A screenshot of the cover memo. Can we be any more amateur?

. @ndc_doug and @ArizonaIRC making new paths -- redistricting by screen share. Stop the meeting. Email and post the damn report!

Another vague promise to post for public access. Not holding my breath!

. @ndc_doug says big takeaway - changes took CD 3 from polarized to not polarized?

Com. Lerner asks how quickly @ArizonaIRC can get new info as districts are changed?A: Working on it.. @ErikaNeuberg asks is they are continuing to look at additional election. A: Not really.

This review is meaningful to NO ONE - it is meaningless babble - checking the box for the "public" record.

Chair @ErikaNeuberg adds her blessing to the review. "Meets all criteria and serves its purpose."
Could you go into more detail please?

Babble on LD 22 - all in MarCo - it is VRA district -- at 8:29 on the clock. Not competitive.

Babble on LD 23 - 8:32 am on the clock for video review if interested... Com Lerner asks for report on splits - how many? @ndc_doug says maybe -- and we could create that - @timmonsgroup reverts to lesson on using the amazing #TimmonsTool...

More babble on LD 23. One of the six districts that falls within the 7 point competitive standard - but Dems win all 8 races - the 9th race was a tie...

LD 24 - Latino VRA district - not competitive

Chair @ErikaNeuberg thinks they "should keep their eye on"the over population in LD 24.

LD 25 - non - sun city portion of Surprise - blah, blah, blah -- Not competitive, not vra - second map shows city of Surprise
@ErikaNeuberg says we could do a better job on city splits - but meets constitutional criteria

I do wonder what @ErikaNeuberg might consider would not comply with he constitutional criteria. It is almost as is she has been programmed to say: "We could do better around the edges. But all constitutional criteria are met."

@ErikaNeuberg tells Com. Lerner how to see the splits AFTER she asked THREE times for a chart. WTSF?

LD 26 - blah, blah -- reading the demo and competitive data chart. VRA effective district.

Chair @ErikaNeuberg casks about the "tail" - not sure why it is there.. need to check the log. COI or pop balance...

LD 27 - Blah, blah from demo and comp data sheet... What a colossal waste of time in a period when time is running out.

I bet @ErikaNeuberg is a really bad baker - she is imprecise in absolutely everything. I would not look forward to pie at her house.

LD 28 - not competitive, not VRA effective

LD 29 - Not effective VRA and not competitive

LD 30 - Not competitive; not an effective VRA district

Done. with walk through of the maps.
@ErikaNeuberg calls it very helpful. Wants to be comfortable in her rationale for the various districts.

Agenda Item #6 - Legal update on VRA -
Roy for @BallardSpahrLLP sharing his screen - a ppt - of course it is not posted. Why is this so frickin' hard. $7.9 million dollars. this is not a college newspaper operation!

A refresher and overview - and then analysis of draft maps - CD and LD district by district. WHY WAS THIS NOT DONE as they just walked through every district?
This sucks!

Compliance w/ VRA is an unqualified requirement. Basics revisited.

Gingles - pronounced "Jingles"
very seasonally appropriate

Example of packing case - brought by Am Indians in S. Dakota..

One district had a super majority; the other had less than a majority

Shape does NOT determine gerrymandering. It is an indication only if there is not a compelling reason to meet other criteria.

Court determined race was a predominate factor in drawing the districts - and NC requires counties to try and keep counties whole.

Chair @ErikaNeuberg deems it helpful as they are now more experienced and calls for move to E-Session. Done.

While the @ArizonaIRC is in E-Session for legal advice on VRA- it seems to be a good time to revisit all the corners this Commission has cut in pursuit of transparency, fair and equal participation, impartiality, and integrity. I'll start - you add.

1) the cluster F* vote in which every commissioner voted for a different number of candidates which yielded the always (un) impressive Brian Schmitt as Executive Director.

2) the decision and ongoing tolerance to engage a legal firm as VRA and redistricting counsel that continues to engage in its political consulting business - requiring no additional disclosure or reporting - and who had participated in suing the last commission

3) the complete cave to a completely partisan campaign against the one mapping firm/contract @HaystaqDNA that had had a successful redistricting experience in AZ having worked with AIRC v2 to create congressional and state legislative plans

deemed "fair and competitive" by multiple national experts and sustained 5 partisan-motivated lawsuits successfully

4) Accepting legislative district plans created by the @RealPimaGOP and promoted by the @SALCLeaders group of which one of the commissioners was a founder. And then keeping those districts in-tact even when exposed.

5) Failing to give due respect to the @NNHRC1 or Latino Coalition for Fair Redistricting submissions.

I have more -- but now it is your turn...

Now would be a really good time to submit public comments to the @ArizonaIRC at this portal: forms.gle/a3MLSXRwZMEmFd…

Back now at 11:26 am - No report out from E- Session.
Now to discussion of public comment during last phase: Com. Mehl likes how it worked last time. And this will be intense. public has become very good at giving us feedback. Electronic only.

Com. Lerner concurs - as long as we have time to review.
V-Chair concurs.
Chair @ErikaNeuberg says yes and finds the time to "study" more helpful.

Beginning w/ deliberations on next Monday, communications will be electronic only.

and now for the always impressive ExDir Report on the budget:

2023 Budget planning!

I just had a horrible thought -- As the @ArizonaIRC defends its maps from the all but certain lawsuits - Brian Schmitt is going to be at the center of that process. That is scary!

Now Dep Dir Lori Van Haren - a new mtg location for 12/2 in Mesa - Deliberation Dates: she reads all of them.
Mtg or deliberation on the 7th. One week out and they are still kicking around dates and times.

Would it be too much to ask that they actually have a plan? What districts will be discussed on which days and times of the meetings. Is that really too much to ask?

Chair @ErikaNeuberg mentions for "efficiencies sake" Does she get to say that?

With six full time staff members, why do these scheduling and planning discussions not take place off-line? This crap does not need to be worked out on video!

Commissioners and staff have completely different dates. Does this inspire confidence that they can actually draw districts - when they can't even align calendars?

Chair @ErikaNeuberg walks through the agenda. Asks "Watchman, are you available on the 14th?" "York" announces he has not held this dates.

And now they are driving their agenda based on what makes sense for the convenience of the mappers. Ass-backwards, anyone?

And now @ndc_doug references expectations based on past experience. he mis not taking into account the fact that at least two - if not three - of these commissioners have an end in mind.

And why does @ArizonaIRC have full-time staff?

Depending on how you consider it, two, three, or four commissioners have private businesses. None of them could be successful in their businesses with this level of Laurel and Hardy slapstick. Wonder why they tolerate it for the @ArizonaIRC

And we are told - though it is not evident by increased responsiveness to public records act requests - that the @ArizonaIRC is complete. Good thing because a whole new slate of requests are coming.

Outreach Update bu Marie CC - preliminary numbers - and that is a wrap.

Announcements - lots a hearings this week - every day; says virtual meeting will go "up to two hours" depending on demand.

Chair @ErikaNeuberg does not anticipate another business meeting. Stunning. They really do think this is ad hoc, informal, volunteer gig - with a $7.9 million dollar budget. Remarkable.

And they are adjourned.