EU frustration growing with U.K. not closing deal on medicines. Tactically, though, you can see the U.K. won’t want to hand EU a ‘Win’ in the magnanimity stakes until they’ve got more on customs/borders /1
But at the same time, the Commission isn’t going to move so far on customs/borders until it knows U.K and Frost are serious about a deal within the limits of the Protocol.
We are back to the “who jumps first?” #brexit negotiation conundrum /2
But that itself is made so much harder by the lack of any EU trust in Frost, whose style (from internal market bill move in 2020 onwards) has been all about threat and confrontation. /3
This in turn is complicated by the fact that Frost’s political position is undermined by the pre-Christmas retreat on Article 16 to go try and get a deal - and EU uncertainty whether that is real or tactical. And whether moderate cabinet forces would win argument again in Jan/4
All of that adds up to a difficult environment for deal-making. ENDS
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@FT@AJack What's going on? Well, simple really. After #Brexit the new immigration rules did two things:
a) insisted all EU kids had passports (not ID cards) to come to UK and
b) non-EU kids in same class needed full visas
That's a *disaster* for EU school trips industry /2
@FT@AJack So it's not impossible to come to UK...but for a budget trip of a 3-5 days, getting everyone new passports...but worse getting your Afghan, Armenian, Turkish classmates a visa (£95, trip to embassy in Paris/Berlin etc) it just makes it impractical/uneconomic /3
@ManufacturingNI@Big_Kells The UK govt plan is apparently designed to defend NI economy...but it's hard to think, if the UK is not properly applying EU single market rules at the Irish Sea border, that NI businesses will keep their special access to EU single market. /2
@ManufacturingNI@Big_Kells Take all those NI milk producers that send milk to the South to be processed and then shipped onwards....and many of those agricultural interests are Unionist. A full blown London-Dublin-Brussels spat really does nothing for them. /3
Almost a year into #Brexit but after today's meeting in Brussels between Frost and Sefcovic it feels like we're gone back in time. Threats and brinkmanship are ramping up again...it's all a bit Brenda from Bristol. So what's going on? What might happen? A quick Friday thread.. /1
Both sides put out gloomy statements today over the Northern Ireland Protocol -- the EU says UK is not engaging seriously with their proposals to reduce Irish Sea border frictions caused by the Irish Protocol. But for Frost, these proposals still miss the point /2
The UK wants a "fundamental" reform of the Protocol, essentially unravelling the basic formula...which is that NI stayed in the EU single market for goods. So if that's the plan, the EU's border offer (which the UK says isn't as good as advertised anyway) doesn't help /3
Three observations on today's @Policy_Exchange paper on the NI Protocol, with a foreword by Lord Frost @DavidGHFrost -- which tries to justify why UK govt -- having signed up to this solution -- now wants to re-write it. And what that tells us. /1
@Policy_Exchange@DavidGHFrost First. This is part of ongoing pitch-rolling exercise to justify the re-write which started in the July Command paper (link below)...but actually is a revival of old (and lost) arguments that date back to Frost/PX selling a tech border NI-RoI /2
@Policy_Exchange@DavidGHFrost And Policy Exchange (and Frost himself) have always pushed that idea...see it's paper Getting Over the Line (link below) which accepted that a tech border N-S might cause some violence, but it would be "short-term" /3
This week @RishiSunak
has put up smokescreen of pre-Budget announcements, but on the front line of the economy business reports it is "handcuffed" by #shortages issues caused by #Covid_19 and #Brexit -- here's what they mean. 1/Thread #Budget2021
@RishiSunak So we start with Paul Askew @Porkyaskew the chef patron at the Art School @ArtSchoolLpool fine dining restaurant. He needs 36 staff, but only has 30. Hiring in UK is massive struggle; prices of ingredients going up. Some days he can't open private dining room, losing £4k /2
“The tragedy is that we’ve got all the demand we can handle. And yet just at the time when we need to restore our cash flows, it’s like we’re handcuffed.” /3
Industry trade chiefs @RHADuncanB@RECNeil and Ian Wright of @Foodanddrinkfed currently eviscerating government approach to the shortages crisis and labour squeeze in front of @CommonsBEIS - abject failure to understand and act on the numbers. /1