Thread by @pmdfoster

Industry trade chiefs @RHADuncanB @RECNeil and Ian Wright of @Foodanddrinkfed currently eviscerating government approach to the shortages crisis and labour squeeze in front of @CommonsBEIS - abject failure to understand and act on the numbers. /1

parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/ae…

@RHADuncanB @RECNeil @Foodanddrinkfed @CommonsBEIS So why is there a labour crunch? Ian Wright explains

Well 1.4m EU workers gone home for #Covid_19. Remember they were supposed to be buffer.

500k become economically inactive - either stayed in education, or retired.

Result? Massive crunch, just as #Brexit ended Free M'ment/2

@RHADuncanB @RECNeil @Foodanddrinkfed @CommonsBEIS So as @RECNeil puts it: “A global issue caused by a misallocation caused by the pandemic which has been amplified by the new trading arrangements we’re working under." /3

@RHADuncanB @RECNeil @Foodanddrinkfed @CommonsBEIS So @RHADuncanB is asked if govt 5,000 visas programme (expires Feb 28) will make a difference? "No" he replies.

"If you were designing a visa system to fail, you’d design it something like this.” he says. /4

Ian Wright: (Despairing) “We do need apprenticeship, skills and British solutions. But we do need to understand the numbers, and I don’t think the government understands the numbers. Until we know what the numbers are, we can’t come up with the solutions” /5

Then @RHADuncanB was asked why Govt has taken such a sticking plaster approach? He declines to anticipate Spad/ministerial thinking, but attributes the refusal to "complacency" (they didn't believe the warnings) and the "toxicity" of #Brexit debate poisoning clear thinking /6

@RHADuncanB Ian Wright, recalling 1977 and supermarkets changing prices twice daily warns inflation (now running at "terrifying" 14pc-18pc in hospitality) will destroy @BorisJohnson levelling up agenda.

Says it took UK 15 years to go recover. "We cannot go back to that." /7

@RHADuncanB @BorisJohnson Knock-on impact on SMEs. So big biz can pays £22/hour to Xmas labour, big signing on bonuses..but Ian Wright says one of his members needs 40 workers to cope with Xmas rush. Got none. Result? Prices have to go up, coz wages must and they can't absorb margins. Result? Inflation./8

@RHADuncanB @BorisJohnson One really important point here is that it's BUSINESS that is sucking up the real pain here, not CONSUMERS who, barring fuel crisis panic, really just get less choice in-stores, longer waits in restaurants. Biz (and investment) is taking the far bigger hit/9

How long is this supply crunch going to last? Ian Wright boss of @Foodanddrinkfed says: “Six months ago our businesses all thought this was transitory, now every business I know expects this to **last into 2023 and 2024.** Every single one.” /10