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2 Dec, 6 tweets, 5 min read
12/2 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Curious week. Not much of a wave yet
* Cases still affected by Thanksgiving it appears
* Positivity Rate, Hospitalizations & Hosp C19 Admits only slowing rising
* More new charts today to directly compare Winter 2021 vs 2020

1/n
 .
12/2 Testing

Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 11/22:
* Pos rate slow rise to 6.01%
* Testing still flat, well see it tank over Thanksgiving
* Positive tests also flat
* Covidestim Rt still irrelevant right now at 0.62

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
12/2 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Cases 7DMA took another big post-Thanksgiving dip to only 1559 cases/day over previous 7 days
* Make some sense as you see testing in 2/n flat even before Thanksgiving
* Curious. Will watch this

3/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
12/2 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* Covid Admits in a really slow climb. 393 per day 7DMA
* % of beds tagged as Covid still in the 4.6% range, total Covid census of 2893 beds
* 7DMA growth still only 4%. Slow rise
* Compared to 2020, a slow start

covid-texas.csullender.com
.
4/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
12/2 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* ICU portion of the bed census is 950. Hanging under 1000 for nearly a month now
* Surprisingly slow start to the wave, but we'll know more in the coming days.

5/n
 . ImageImage
11/30 Conclusion

Amplitude of the wave so far is behind 2020 pace, including the leading indicators of pos%, testing and hospital admits.

Some of that could still be Thanksgiving. Have a couple more Winter wave comparison charts to build so that I can retire the summer charts.

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More from @therealarod1984

therealarod1984 Profile picture
22 Nov
11/22 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Thanksgiving week will suppress the published numbers this week
* The number to watch will be positivity rate which is in a slow climb
* Winter wave is here but will be hard to know extent until ~Dec 1

1/n
 .
11/22 Testing

Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete.

As of 11/12:
* Pos rate rising to 4.70%
* Testing & positives are flat. Interesting to see if testing surges between 11/13-11/18, before the break
* Covidestim Rt down to 0.65

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
11/22 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Cases 7DMA almost flat at 2697. Cases will be lower than actual due to the holiday. People don't go to the doctor over the break
* Look at dips in charts, it happens at every major holiday

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
19 Nov
11/19 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* The Start of the Winter wave is here
* All the metrics are showing small increases
* Banking on the vaccines being effective and reducing the amplitude of the wave is looking increasingly like a pipe dream.

1/n
 .
11/19 Testing

Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete.

As of 11/09:
* Positivity rate rising to 4.47%
* Testing increasing 7DMA ~ 83.8K
* Positive Test 7DMA ~ 3748
* Covidestim Rt creeping up to 0.74

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
11/19 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Cases 7DMA is slowly increasing
* 7DMA of 2796 cases, rising 20% week over week
* Will start watching the amplitude of the wave.
* Probably will adjust my charting to compare Winters directly

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
16 Nov
OSHA Mandate going to the Sixth Circuit is good news it appears.

11 GOP judges and 5 Dems in active service, senior judges are 10-3 GOP. All the activity I'm seeing on the Twitter verse from both sides say this court is pretty red.
.
6th Circuit covers Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, and Michigan FYI
"The Sixth Circuit is a favorable draw for mandate challengers, one of the best they could have hoped for...many Trump-appointed judges skeptical of broad assertions of agency authority..." said Sean Marotta, a lawyer at Hogan Lovells who follows multi-circuit issues closely.
Read 4 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
16 Nov
The 1) lawsuit and 2) preliminary injunction filed by 12 states in W. Louisiana yesterday against CMS - the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services

RE: Biden administration’s overreaching COVID-19 vaccine mandate for healthcare workers

THREAD 1/n

dojmt.gov/attorney-gener…
What is striking about this motion for preliminary injunction (basically a Stay), is how much of the language of the 5th Circuit's Stay vs OSHA is quoted.

Also I didn't realize CMS was attempting to use the Social Security Act as the legal justification for this Mandate.

2/n
 .
Overview of reasons why a STAY must be granted:

* At odds with the SSA
* Exceeds CMS's statutory authority
* Violates the SSA's prohibition on control of healthcare workers
* Violates the
** Spending Clause
** Anti-Commandeering Doctrine
** 10th Amendment

3/n
Read 18 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
15 Nov
11/14 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Declines have flattened across the board
* Start of a Winter wave appears imminent but size of the wave is TBD
* El Paso, Amarillo increasing, likely New Mexico related
* San Antonio, Houston still declining
* Rest of the state is flat

1/n
 .
11/14 Testing

* Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete
* Positivity rate continues slow decline but flattening, 4.22% as of 11/4
* Testing flattening ~ 80K / day
* Positive Test 7DMA ~ 3500
* Covidestim Rt still very low at 0.60

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
11/14 - Cases

* Cases 7DMA is flat. Lines up with the the more recent, incomplete testing numbers per 2/n
* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* 7DMA of 2403 cases, rising 5% week over week
* Were at that point where the Winter Wave started last year

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
13 Nov
The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals not only Stayed OSHA's mandate, they destroyed it, and laid down the legal groundwork for it to be easily struck down.

Might take a couple of days, but I'll go through the ruling page by page.

THREAD

1/n
dl.airtable.com/.attachments/d…
The ruling by Judge Engelhardt begins by going through the rarity and difficulty of OSHA using the Emergency Temporary Standard that they are utilizing for this Mandate. In 50 years of history, 10 ETSs have been issued, and only 1 survived.

2/n
 .
To grant a Stay, a court considers 4 factors. In this case, each of these factors favor a stay. The next several pages will delve into the four factors, starting with whether the challenge to the Mandate is likely to succeed.

3/n
Read 24 tweets

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