Thread by @AWokeZombie

#MN #COVID19 So thanks to @EWoodhouse7, I went down the rabbit hole of looking through Minnesota data. They are one of the few states I've seen that tracks both breakthrough cases and refinfections. They also track it in a transparent way which makes it easy to follow

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First up, reinfection. While I'd love to see more details on these (severity/age/etc), you can see that for the most part under 2% of the cases are reinfections. This is a 7day average to smooth the data. The bumps in Feb/Mar/June bumps are unexplained and interesting.

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Second, breakthrough infections. This has been a steady climb higher since they began tracking, and now represents 45% of all cases in a given week. This is data reported as a sum of breakthroughs divided by sum of total cases for the week.

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So I figured, the pattern looks strange, right? I decided to plot it against fully vaccinated uptake in MN, and low and behold. Very similar pattern with an approximately 4 month offset. Timed failure of infection prevention in the vaxx?

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Finally, pulling it all together yields the following. How one can look at this data and make a case for vax immunity being better than natural immunity is just beyond my comprehension. The data is clear. NI is robust, durable, and long lasting, and is blowing doors off vaxx imm.