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#NJ #COVID19 🚨🚨Breaking News 🚨🚨
Murphy's mask mandate in jeopardy as Committee may not keep mask EO in place.

Im calling on everyone in NJ with kids in school to fight back against the NJEA and let Steve Sweeney know its time to end Masks on Kids…
.@spillerfornjea Thinks that making masks mandatory keeps schools safe. He couldn't be further from the truth. Burbio tracks Mask policies across the US, you'll note than there's only a handful of states that mandate masks. All the others? Local Flexibility.
Meanwhile the @NJEA claims that we need mask mandates to keep schools open, yet per Burbio, the majority of closed schools are in states where masks are already mandatory. Why is the #NJEA failing your kids while there are 0 schools closed in Florida and mask mandates are banned?
Read 4 tweets
#NJ #COVID19 NJ finally released its interim TTS guidance. Its a disaster. They add so many extra hoops to jump through, many districts will tune it out. They still have not accepted 5 day quarantine despite the fact the CDC has said its for schools, too…
First, schools need access to testing, but the state wants them to perform the testing ONSITE. They also lie about the vaccine reducing the spread of Covid19. This has been thoroughly debunked with Omicron.

Second, its only good for in school transmission. WTF?
Third, you have to agree to let THEM test your child. You cant have their pediatrician or any other source do it.

Fourth, they want a CLIA waiver for in school testing, essentially turning schools into testing facilities.

Fifth, all tests will be reported, prolonging this.
Read 8 tweets

Haven't updated these in a while. These will be Cases/Hospitalizations/Deaths on a raw basis by age group, and then Cases/Hospitalizations/Deaths on a percent basis by age group

First up, raw 7d avg cases by age group. Cases driven by overtesting 30-49 and 0-17

Second, raw 7d avg Hospitalizations by age group. No surprises here, still being driven by older age groups. At the same case rate during the 2020 Winter wave, hospitals were slightly lower in most age groups.

Third, raw 7d avg Deaths by Age group. Again, no surprises. We've been sustaining flat death rates since the summer wave, no doubt this will go higher in the coming weeks.

Those under 50 look to have seen no improvement in the post vax era. (Not worse, either)

Read 6 tweets
I have a VERY good source who briefed me on some of the abuses alleged at #WallHighSchool.

Reporters & #Wall residents, I hope you’re paying attention.

Bc it’s time to excise the tumor.

Stay tuned for after the BoE meeting 😉

#NEWS #BREAKING #newjersey #wall2021 #monmouth
1] Exclusive details & allegations from a very credible source about the #WHSScandal (quotes paraphrased):

"It's bigger than that. Rape, attempted sodomy, steroids, cover ups by school officials and local police..."

#WallHighSchool #walltownship #walltwp #newjersey #NJ #WHS2021
Read 27 tweets

Took me awhile to get the data together for this. So here it goes.

If you didnt realize it when you saw these bullshit numbers. They are all a guise to push vaccines. Thats it.

I'll try to walk through this in as few tweets as possible.

First up, nowhere does it make any sense to push population level numbers. Reporting these as 'effective' is just a disgusting mis-appropriation of the math. Today, 324 people tested positive. That means 8,999,676 didnt, or 99.9964%. Idiotic to present it that way? Of course.

Yet, somehow the Gov and his DOH thinks it ok to just pull that out of their ass and claim it means that the vaccine is 99.99999999% effective. Here's the truth. its not.

What they failed to realize is they gave us some important data today that made this easy to fact check

Read 16 tweets
#NJ #COVID19 Hospital Admission data, updated today through late last week. This will be stratified by age. Note that all these graphs will be 7 day sums. Divide by 7 to get the daily average admissions.

First, the total

Averaging about 24 confirmed hospitalizations per day

First, pediatric and 18-19 yr olds. There hasnt been an 18-19 yr old admitted with confirmed covid in quote some time, and none through our entire fall wave, yet we are mandating vaccines for college kids. Insane.

Second, 20-29 yr olds. Hasnt been a 20-29 yr old admitted with confirmed covid in almost a month. Again, college kids getting mandated to take a vaccine. Insane.

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#NJ #COVID19 Screaming into the void. 1 region (SW) goes from green to yellow. At record low cases, record low hospitalizations. I can't stress how bogus this truly is. You're being warned, if this isnt fixed or brought to the surface by the media, it will screw us in the fall
Case rate metrics have been set by an organization who's mission is a #ZeroCovid outcome. Not the CDC, not the State DOH, but CovidactNow. Why? With false positives and these testing levels, cases below 1/100k are NOT possible.

Percent Positivity is NOT de-duplicated, so every double test positive gets counted. This overinflates true % positivity. Never been questioned, never been explained.

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So since the dude that got popped embezzling and has been accused by multiple comedians of sexual harassment and sexual assault wants to know why I am considered a leader let’s fucking do this. #thread #palestine #NJ #DisCo
When I was 16 I became student council president that’s when my interest in leadership and government began as a result I went to leader ship training camp as a teen. I became a counselor at that camp for 13 years so I literally train future #NewJersey leaders.
At 18 I volunteered on my first campaign. It was for Bob Torricelli. Yes I know how his career ended and a lot of New Jersey politicians that I volunteered for ended up resigning in disgrace or going to jail but this is #Jersey #CripTheVote
Read 12 tweets
#NJ #COVID19 Case update for 5/5. Mass Deletions continuing. Groundhog day. Growing increasingly frustrated with inability of *ANYONE* to press this issue.
Where's the media?
Where's the legislature?
Where's the Concern/Outrage?

Another 895 deletions. *13,092* in 10 days.
They are rewriting the epi curve. They are giving the public no transparency. Where the hell are the people running against Murphy? Look at what rewriting it has done to the curves. The winter wave is soon going to be similar than the Spring bump, with no explanation.
They are out of cases to harvest. The cumulative delta is negative.

Cases are close to the 1500 range, but we keep reporting under 100. This is going to crush Rt when it ends.

Reported: 1309 (??)
Adds: 1784 (!!) Love the 62 dumped on March 13th.
Deletions: 895 (!!)
Net: 889
Read 4 tweets
#NJ #COVID19 Case update for 4/26, and its a doozy.

For those who don't know, at today's press conference, the state nonchalantly deleted 10,440 cases. Of course, everyone in the press in the room ignored it, and Lifshitz essentially read out a statement on what happened.

The state claims that deletions of duplicates were a manual process and they just, for the first time, automated the process. This automation picked up 10,440 cases that required deletion that the @NJDeptofHealth missed for months. I dispute that claim, and here is why:

First, the case update for today:

Reported: 1247
Additions: 1069
Deletions: 10,265
Net: -9,196
DoD Change: -9,195

778 of the cases are from IO in the last 7 days. The other 291 are from older dates.

Read 9 tweets
#NJ #COVID19 "Murphy has cited the state's distinction of having the highest population density in the nation – a factor that can encourage the spread of the virus – as a reason for waiting it out."

Why doesnt anyone challenge him on that bs?…
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#NJ #Covid19 Kurt lays out the proof direct from the DOH that old cases are being called new. I’ll be returning to case counts this weekend and will continue to shed light on just how many old cases are called new until the administration fixes the accounting method.
Many do not understand the implication of this or the magnitude. Children are being held out of school because of inflated case counts in the CDC metric, nursing home residents are being denied visitation because of CALI scores.
Decisions are and have been made based on erroneous and misrepresented numbers. And the sad part, is the interference the DOH and administration was running at the general public,
Including me that we were somehow wrong.
Read 6 tweets
#NJ #Covid19 Please remind Daniel who pays his salary.
Some other points while I’m on the subject.

5) This could have went a whole lot easier if you would have just turned on data transparency on the dash like what was requested 9 months ago. Instead, the DOH shut it off and didn’t answer FOIA requests.
And 6) I have over 1,000 hours invested into tracking your illness onset data, mostly because of #5 above. It should take anyone 5 mins to do. Instead it takes over an hour a day. I’m not doing it for my health, I’m doing it because Murphy’s team has failed to be transparent
Read 4 tweets
#NJ #COVID19 Denominators matter.

When it comes to variants. This matters more than ever. Why? Lets say I report 3 UK variants today. Then 10 next week, then 50 the following week. Sounds scary right? Exponential increase!

Well hold on.... Denominators matter, right?

Now what if I told you, that in the 1st week I only tested 20 samples total. But in week 2 I tested 50, then the following week I tested 200. Now I know the denominator, right?

03 / 20 = 15%
10 / 50 = 20%
50 / 200 = 25%

Ok, now the game changes. I know the whole equation.

But whenever the media tells us about variants, its in articles like this.

" State officials won’t say how many total virus samples they’ve tested".

Gee, but why is that?

Read 15 tweets
#NJ #COVID19 Case update for 2/12.

Reported: 3285
Adds: 3270
Deletions: 38
Net: 3232

1964 cases out of the 3270 reported are from IO in the last 7 days. (60%). This is important considering today's CDC release, I'll explain in the next few tweets.

592 cases 30+ days old

Today the CDC released guidance with 4 categories, Blue (I guess green got canceled because its too normal), Yellow, Orange, and Red. As you can see, the CDC is now recommending that any county/area in the red category cancel all current ongoing sports and go virtual only.

So what are the ranges for these colored categories? They are overly onerous, of course, with > 100 cases in 7 days per 100k being red, all the way down to < 9 cases in 7 days per 100k for Blue (We can never get there, more on that problem at a later date)

Read 14 tweets
#NJ #COVID19 #Influenza Flu update for Week 5.

🟢NJ added 5 flu cases this week. Compared to 2017, we are at 110 total cases vs. 14,065, a 99.2% decrease.

🟢CLI and ILI continue heading lower, now under early November values. Image
Compared to last Flu seasons, CLI never broke 2019 ILI levels, while CLI continues to show past peak. This time last year, we had just peaked on Flu season. This year its heading under 1% with little to no cases. Image
There continues to be a disconnect between what the CDC reports publically, and what the state of NJ calculates privately (and noone asks). The latter is used to color grade levels in the state which are used by schools in reopening. So it should be accurate and transparent. Image
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#NJ #COVID19 Another piece of data that is secret to the public but has impact on whether schools are open. I spoke on this topic many months ago with a warning that this data is not transparent and unless the admin is asked, would go unchallenged. This is the Percent CLI

Footnote #4 explains the assumptions around this data, and as you can tell, if someone presents at a hospital with fever, they will be designated CLI, regardless of whether this has anything to do with Covid.

Also note that anything under 5.52% is yellow, not orange.

But, the CDC collects this same data for the entire state, as you can find here:…

The problem, of course, is when you compare the two (NJ's rendition vs. the actual CDC data for the state, you can see that the states is overstated (shocking I know).

Read 6 tweets
#NJ #COVID19 Case update for 1/23.

State dumped massive amount of cases today. Here's what they did:

* They dumped 3909 "New hospitalizations" from yesterday to today.
* They added a "New Case" for each of these hospitalizations
* They re added the 600+ cases they deleted yest
The result:

* 3000 cases are older than 7 days from IO
* 2350 cases are from New Years and earlier
* 381 cases are from before MEMORIAL DAY
* 693 cases are from Thanksgiving to New Years

This is a lab/hospital dump, and without context, is WRONG to claim these are new.
Here's the hospital dump today. I track daily increases in Ever Hospitalized each day. Today the numbers jumped by 3909.
Read 5 tweets
#NJ #COVID19 #influenza Week 51 in the books.

ILI/CLI headed lower for the 2nd straight week. The state added 3 confirmed flu cases this week, bringing the cumulative total to 41 compared to 855 this time in 2017. Notable is that if Week 49 holds as peak it will be under 2017
Compared to last year, CLI/ILI in 2020 have both dropped 2 wks in a row, with the current peak in Wk 49. This time last year, ILI was headed higher. On this pace, 2019 ILI will overtake 2020 CLI. As are reminder, these are people presenting at the ED with covid/flu like illness
Finally, Cumulative hospitalizations this wave versus a bad flu season in 2017 continue to show similarities. We still havent hit weekly 2017 peak Flu hospitalizations, at 3350. This week, NJ had 3050 new hospitalizations. 2020 looks like will be wider (higher avg weekly hosp)
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#NJ #COVID19 Digging through the details of the % positivity calc that the state provides, I've discovered some fatal flaws. First, I'll start with the dashboard calculation. This is the output, and you can find it here:…

At first glance, you can see how choppy this is, zooming in from Oct 1 on, especially on Sundays and Mondays when Tests are their lowest. The problem is, I cannot recreate this data no matter how I try. So, it begs the question: Where is the state getting this data from?

I've tried to match the data using several methods. I tried using reported cases by total collected samples. I tried using illness onset cases by total collected samples. Neither method came close.

Read 10 tweets
#NJ #COVID19 Hospital update for 12/15. This continues to show improvement. We are past the two lowest days of discharges, and are still seeing Net Hospitalizations drop. Need to see discharges outpace hospitalizations and Net Hosp to go negative to show a peak

Bed Turnover this wave remains quicker than the March/April wave. This implies milder illness present in the hospitals compared to the spring. Sources tell me Remdesevir and other therapeutics are leading to shorter stays

14 day Average Hospital growth continues to head lower, another good sign that we're nearing peak for hospitalizations this wave. Need this to go negative as hospitals empty.

Read 5 tweets
#NJ #COVID19 Lets do a model check-in with NJ cases.

First up, DOH Case Model versus 7d avg of actuals. The DOH modeled High and Moderate Cases. Strange shapes.

1/ Image
Next, Office of Information Case Model versus 7d avg of actuals. Similarly, they modeled both High and Moderate Cases. Weird oscillation and a interesting drop off on the moderate case.

2/ Image
Here the assumptions they used. Not sure where they get 75% PUI conversion, when it hasnt been over 30-40% since the start of the pandemic. Image
Read 5 tweets
#NJ #COVID19 #Hospitals

The HHS file updates on Sun. nights, here's some of the things I've been tracking week over week.

First up, hospital Onset Covid. These are the # of people currently hospitalized who were in for 14 days for something else, but got Covid there.

/1 Image
Inpatient Utilization. This is the percent of beds that are currently filled. Currently running at about 75% capacity. This hasnt changed much across the last 6 months of the pandemic, regardless of how many Covid patients are hospitalized

/2 Image
ICU bed utilization (These are staffed beds), along with Covid utilization. % of ICU beds used for Covid has increased, but overall utilization has only risen by half. Does that confirm that some of these are people who would be in the ICU regardless?

/3 Image
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#NJ #COVID19 Hospital Modeling comparison in the first few days of data. Note the overlap and the variance between the model and reality.
Here's ICU Modeling
And Finally Vents. These are against DOH - High model.
Read 3 tweets

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