Thread by @eresc79

1. A new sobering update on the #OmicronVarient (variant) from the HA in South Africa moments ago. Two main things stand out. The case numbers are growing much faster than before, and the demographics of hospital admissions is changing.



#covid19bc

The first thing that @Dr_Groome presented was the rapid growth in case numbers.
Slides: sacoronavirus.co.za/2021/12/03/cov…

3. A better representation would've been to use a log scale in the y-axis, as you can see that by doing that you can clearly see the difference in growth rates between previous waves and this one. I added US as comparison, adjusting by population. You can see the problem here.

4. Positivity is increasing very rapidly, from 2% in November 14, to 22.4% on December 2nd.

5. Positivity is particularly going up fast in Gauteng, where it went from less than 2% in early November to 34% yesterday.

6. By age group the positivity is the highest at the 20-29, and surrounding age groups, but increasing in other age groups too.

7. The Rt number is increasing rapidly as well, and in Gauteng it is the highest they've seen since the pandemic started, Dr. Groome said.

8. Gauteng, the region most affected is seeing 3579 7-day moving average

9. In that region, the age group with highest incidence of admission to hospital is the 60+, but surprisingly the second one is the <5.

10. The numbers for the city of Tshwane, in that region, is showing a very different demographic of hospital admissions. When you compare the first two weeks of their third wave (Delta) to the first two weeks of their fourth wave (Omicron), the shift in age groups is clear.

11. This is in agreement with what Dr. Mathivha is reporting in her ICU in Johannesburg:

https://twitter.com/eNCA/status/1465899676545257477

12. Here's the complete interview with more details:

13. Yesterday @TWenseleers had a good thread on comparing the numbers of Delta vs Omicron. In short, Omicron is growing >4x faster than Delta.

https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1466501989500653568

14. This could be in part because there is reinfection happening, as summarized in the preprint shared by @EricTopol :

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1466470971141877761

15. If these numbers hold in other jurisdictions, this could be a new phase as other regions start to get more cases of Omicron, as @trvrb explained.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1466487736177627138

16. I looked at the mutations a week ago, and I was greatly concerned with what #OmicronVarient had:

https://twitter.com/eresc79/status/1465026193942409218

17. The epidemiological data from South Africa of the last days only makes me more concerned. I really hope that our authorities are paying attention and make rapid changes to our policies.

18. The @Protect_BC group has been doing a good job at highlighting changes that we could implement now, such as rapid testing, and ventilation. Yesterday @DFisman was the guest and it was an excellent discussion on what can be improved: