1/4 In a May 2021 preprint on the common evolutionary trajectories of human beta-coronaviruses, we (@EvolveDotZoo, Marina Escalera-Zamudio and others) identified four sites, including S/796 found in #omicron that we hypothesized might be involved in human adaptation
2/4 In particular, S/796 has experienced what we termed "stepwise evolution" in SARS-CoV-1 and is near the trimerization surface, which undergoes conformational rearrangements during viral fusion
3/4 These types of comparative analyses of beta-coronavirus evolution in humans are effectively studies of evolutionary "replicates" where commonalities commonalities among different viruses can be exploited to develop predictions of what similar viruses may do.
4/4 If we want to learn more about #SARS_CoV_2 (or any other important human pathogen), it always pays to sequence and study similar viruses, even if they are relatively benign (common cold). Comparative evolution is very powerful. Data and viz at observablehq.com/@spond/beta-co…
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2/18 There are 14 mutation in #omicron S-gene that have been under negative selection (or neutral evolution) prior to Nov 2021. This pattern was NOT seen in previous VOC where many of the signatures sites had been detectably selected prior to emergence cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092…
3/18 The 14 #Omicron mutations fall into 3 clusters in Spike
1/11 Can the evolutionary history of sarbecoviruses help predict the effect of mutations in #omicron? Experimental measurment of phenotypic effects is the gold standard (e.g. see the magnificent DMS-based predictions by @jbloom_lab). What about evolutionary predictions?
2/11 Obviously, if a mutation has been observed at appreciable frequencies in SARS-CoV-2 circulation, this provides evidence that it is not particularly deleterious or may be adaptive (at the time it was circulating, anyway).
3/11 How about mutations that have not been seen at "above noise" levels? We can look at evolution in related "species" (viral isolates in this case) to impute the effect of a mutation; this idea has found extensive use in general G2P (e.g. SIFT, PolyPhen, EP).
There's definitely a strong signal of selection on Spike in #Omicron compared to reference clades in our preliminary RASCL analysis of ~60 sequences (thanks @aglucaci, more coming) 1. Spike is under positive selection 2. Spike is under stronger selection than background
There are 9 spike sites where there's stronger selection in #Omicron compared to other clades according to Contrast-FEL (academic.oup.com/mbe/article/38…). Sorted by q-value here (stronger evidence at the top)
Full details at observablehq.com/@aglucaci/sc2-… Will post further updates (we will be running daily or so updates as more sequences come in).
#SARSCoV2 selection analyses updates. We switched to running sliding windows analyses (blocks of 3 months) to deal with data volumes and get temporal trends. The current state of analyses is at observablehq.com/@spond/selecti…
This includes an at-a-glance view of selection profiles on the most recent time window
1/ A recent preprint (papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…) reporting detection of sequence and antibody evidence for SARS-CoV-2 in Italy in the fall of 2019 presents results that are at odds with the current early SARS-CoV-2 timeline.
2/ It may be tempting to dismiss these results as false positives or some other data artifact (e.g.
), but should it be done for these “inconvenient" data?
3/ Or rather, should we think carefully how to examine the “early European spread” hypothesis by seeking early data more systematically (as the preprint calls for) and considering which alternative models might fit the totality of available early data?
The analysis of recovered sequences does not fundamentally change our current understanding of early SARS-CoV-2 evolution, but it does make the hypothesis of a single-source wet market outbreak implausible.
The rooting of the tree (i.e. what the progenitor sequence is) is also more likely in clade A, i.e. the Wu-1 genome is not the ancestral genome; simlilar to what we find in academic.oup.com/mbe/advance-ar…, and