Thread by @TaisonBell

I took a few days to collect my thoughts on the #Omicron variant based on the early reports.

There are 3 things that concern me so far in S. Africa:
1) Explosive growth rate in infections
2) Increased rate of re-infections
3) Higher numbers of younger people hospitalized
🧵 1/

#1: This is a graph shows 7d average cases by week with different variants overlayed on each other. Whereas the #Delta (blue) wave looks like a steep mountain, Omicron (black) looks like a rocket taking off straight up. It’s unprecedented and nauseating.
2/

https://twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1466828284445040645

#2 Partly driving cases is higher reinfection rates w/ Omicron. So far 3x higher than Delta! Until now we’ve thought of natural immunity as decent (though vax-immunity is better). But Omicron is eating natural immunity’s lunch money.

h/t @dr_kkjetelina
yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/omicron-upda…
3/

#3 SA hospital admission data show higher #s of younger folks—including children—admitted.

It’s unclear if this represents a more deadly virus. SA has a test positivity percent ~25, so I think this more likely represents a virus spreading like wildfire & outpacing testing.
4/

So what’s encouraging so far? SA’s hospitalizations have just started to tick up, but it doesn’t appear that they are filling up with fully vaccinated patients.

I do expect vaccination to still offer protection from severe disease, especially if boosted when eligible.
5/

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1466843273352429582

So what to do now? Basically the same things as b4 Omicron ruined our week:
1) Whatever vaccine dose you’re eligible for, get it. Whether 1st dose, 2nd dose, or booster
2) #WearaMask. If you can see their full face, don’t be in their space
3) Avoid large indoor gatherings
6/fin

https://twitter.com/cdcgov/status/1465742530134302736