The #Taliban has reached #Kabul. Why is #Moscow so calm?
Great explainer from @IvanUlisesKK for @RiddleRussia
ridl.io/en/the-taliban…
Great explainer from @IvanUlisesKK for @RiddleRussia
ridl.io/en/the-taliban…
1. Before Taliban took over in 1996, Russia was actively supplying anti-Taliban coalition since 1995. In 2021 Russia did no such thing, Taliban takeover was accepted as given.
2. The views towards Afghanistan have not drastically changed - its civil war is a source of instability
2. The views towards Afghanistan have not drastically changed - its civil war is a source of instability
3. Difference is that in late 1990s Central Asia was a mess: civil war in Tajikistan, Ferghana valley "time bomb", general economic despair.
4. Central Asian states are viewed as adequate states now instead of poorly governed territories in the aftermath of USSR collapse
4. Central Asian states are viewed as adequate states now instead of poorly governed territories in the aftermath of USSR collapse
5. Russia has been building its relations with Taliban for some time now. But here is a trick - Russia has been uber vocal about supporting legitimate governments. Afghanistan government was recognized as legitimate by all accounts. Why the deviation?
6. Because it was a US-sponsored government and a feature of "liberal world order" that Moscow did not mind seeing "corrected".
7. For Russia, Taliban takeover doesn't change its fundamental AF policy: keep instability of civil war in AF away from CA. If Taliban indeed commits to restrain itself from threatening its northern neighbors, then Russia may continue to acquiesce to a longer Taliban rule over AF
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