1. One key to understanding this Texas Abortion case ruling. From the syllabus:

In this preliminary posture, the ultimate merits question, whether S. B. 8 is consistent with the Federal Constitution, is not before the Court.
2. After a quick speed read of the opinion, other than for Thomas who would have blocked any public official enforcement under Ex Parte Young, CJ Roberts joined by the three liberals sends a message IMO that the District Court may move swiftly to strike down the entire act:
3. "CHIEF JUSTICE ROBERTS, with whom JUSTICE BREYER, JUSTICE SOTOMAYOR, and JUSTICE KAGAN join, concurring in the judgment in part and dissenting in part.
Texas has passed a law banning abortions after roughly six weeks of pregnancy. See S. B. 8, 87th Leg., Reg. Sess. (2021).
4. That law is contrary to this Court’s decisions in Roe v. Wade, 410 U. S. 113 (1973), and Planned Parenthood of Southeastern Pa. v. Casey, 505 U. S. 833 (1992). It has had the effect of denying the exercise of what we have held is a right protected under the Federal
5. Constitution."

My first pass at the Gorsuch opinion appears to focus on who may be sued and clearly avoids any discussion of the merits and the principal issue of whether the law impermissibly violates a Constitutional right. Roberts has not delayed responding and would
6. appears to support immediately striking it down as follows: "Texas has employed an array of stratagems designed to shield its unconstitutional law from judicial review."

So the key to the Roberts concurrence that I think may take the lead in the litigation in the district
7. court is that the statute is unconstitutional and moving forward anyone seeking to enforce it outside of the courtroom runs the risk of being hauled into federal court under a 1983 civil rights suit. And because Gorsuch reasoned that the the officials who were to be dismissed
8. like Texas AG Paxton were immune under the current facts where they had yet to do anything substantive to enforce the act, they might find that immunity short-lived should they take an active role in anything but the district court litigation. So what I expect is, unless the
9. 5th Cir. food-drags the remand, it will be teed up on the merits in the US district court soon where the case began its journey to SCOTUS on a request for preliminary injunction that requires a finding of "likelihood of success on the merits" a sine qua non that the
10. none of the eight SCOTUS seem willing to deny. The portion of the case that evidences some discord among the Conservatives is II-C where Thomas believes, based on apparent standing grounds that no public official should remain a defendant. Gorsuch's opinion disagrees because
11. the complaint alleges a duty imposed on the state licensing officials who are duty-bound to enforce the the law against medical providers.

Kavanaugh and Barrett just rode along with the Gorsuch opinion. I still think that Kavanaugh is the swing vote. CJ Roberts rebuke of
12. law as unconstitutional may be difficult for the court to overcome when it returns on what will certainly be a finding of the district court on the merits that the law violates the US Constitution. My guess is that they will come to a compromise decision in Mississippi's
13. case that will set the line of bans at 25 weeks. This is not inconsistent with Casey and Roe and can be a bone thrown to the extreme right anti-abortion team while not tossing the doctrine of stare decisis in the trash and thus saving the cases the Koch machine really cares
14. about related to destroying the right to vote that will be buttressed against the possibility of a new majority tossing them when and if @TheDemocrats add justices to rebalance the Court.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

12 Dec
1. Remember Carter Page? He was found in four #FISA applications to be an "Agent of a Foreign Power." Irregularities in the applications gave John Durham something to justify his existence as a special prosecutor, but that key finding has not, to my knowledge, been challenged.
2. Four FISA orders of 90 days each are permitted under FISA 50 U.S. Code § 1805(d)(2). One year. After that, the statute says it shuts down as to a US person. FISA applies to surveillance of "agents of a foreign power" and applies separate rules for persons other than US persons
3. and, like Carter Page, US persons. For a US person like Carter Page, the statute defines them as an agent of a foreign power as follows:

(2)any person who—

(A)knowingly engages in clandestine intelligence gathering activities for or on behalf of a foreign power,
Read 16 tweets
10 Dec
1. I need to dig into the post-election timeline but I have a distinct recollection that TFG was coming to terms with losing and then a few days after the election was called with enough to spare so that there was no way it would change the outcome, he changed. I have thought
2. early in his administration that he had a way to communicate with the Kremlin outside of the normal channels. Even if not that extreme, someone likely got to him in those days. As much as the focus is on Jan 6 and the days immediately before it, some of the indictments
3. allege early November as within the relevant time period. I think the criminal case that I am confident is under investigation is focused on those early days right after it was clear that Biden won. And if whoever got to TFG and convinced him to overthrow the election
Read 6 tweets
10 Dec
1. From the perspective of #Taliban propaganda what this type of media may evidence about the status of
Taliban control, is they need these martyr videos to attempt to keep the faithful willing to be sacrificed for the cause. Because Afghan Taliban is objectively supporting
2. a foreign invader Pakistan, this form of propaganda is less likely to create the kind of fervor required to continue a movement built on a lie of Afghan sovereignty. If I were creating counter-propaganda I would focus on the fraud of the Pak controlled Taliban. As the forces
3. continue to die and go hungry their blind loyalty to the fat-cat Taliban leaders who were living in style in Qatar will likely begin to wane. If they are given an escape plan of returning to Pashtun areas to establish an autonomous region free of a corrupt central government
Read 5 tweets
10 Dec
1. My advice to the MSM. Before you put some talking head legal expert on, ask them point blank if they read today's SCOTUS opinion or just skimmed it. I just heard someone on @CBSNews say it would likely be going nowhere in the district court despite the fact that the distict
2. court already essentially ruled the Texas Act is unconstitutional. This is just media trying to put their face out for their network and/or personal gain while not giving accurate reasoned legal analysis. It's contributing to the erosion of confidence in our legal system and
3. responsible journalists should not help make matters worse. The fact that the Court ruled to send it back for a ruling on the merits that is not what a denial of an injunction generally is, is hardly reason for us to endure another week of hair being set on fire on @MSNBC.
Read 9 tweets
10 Dec
1. On #Ukraine: Presidents #Biden & #Zelensky's readouts had no specific mention of #Crimea. IMO Putin is unlikely to accept a result that loses #Sevastopol that Russia had a lease to before the invasion. The fact that it is not mentioned specifically could be a positive sign.
2. The US focus is on the #Minskagreements. It's been so long I'd forgotten exactly what was in them. Here's the Wiki. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_Pro…
3. On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, implementation of these rules will give #Moscow what will be akin to Al Capone's duchy of Joliet Illinois where #Putin's mob will control the police and prosecutors but adding a
Read 6 tweets
9 Dec
1. When an opinion starts like this, you know TFG is in deep Kimchee.

"MILLETT, Circuit Judge: On January 6, 2021, a mob professing support for then-President Trump violently attacked the United States Capitol in an effort to prevent a Joint Session of Congress from certifying
2. the electoral college votes designating Joseph R. Biden the 46th President of the United States. The rampage left multiple people dead, injured more than 140 people, and inflicted millions of dollars in damage to the Capitol."
3. "The central question in this case is whether, despite the exceptional and imperative circumstances underlying the Committee’s request and President Biden’s decision, a federal court can, at the former President’s behest, override President Biden’s decision not to invoke
Read 11 tweets

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