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Daniel Lacalle Profile picture
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10 Dec, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Spain industrial production down 0.9% yoy in October.

"Robust recovery" Image
Spain added value by sector.

"Robust recovery" according to the government. Image
Spain retail sales.

"Robust recovery" according to the government. Image
Spain job creation public sector vs private sector.

"Robust recovery" Image
Spain inflation. Image
Spain GDP vs peers.

"Robust recovery"

#endthread Image

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More from @dlacalle_IA

Daniel Lacalle Profile picture
22 Aug
The same people that defend no-growth demand endless public expenditure growth.

Predictions are estimates, not proven facts. Just as economist predictions tend to fail the longer the predicted date, same happens with scientists. Ignoring technology, efficiency and productivity.
Climate alarmism is counterproductive. Generates a backlash against environmental investment and destroys the credibility of otherwise valuable and interesting works.
Most governments do not benefit from technology innovation, energy efficiency, and substitution. Why? Because those are disinflationary factors and they benefit from inflation while creative destruction hurts so-called strategic industries, which they aim to preserve at all cost
Read 4 tweets
Daniel Lacalle Profile picture
13 Aug
This year marks the 50th anniversary since Nixon suspended the convertibility of the USD into Gold.

This began the era of global fiat money debt-fueled economy.

Since then, crises are more frequent but also shorter and always "solved" by adding more debt and printing.
Since the end of the gold standard, massive debt build and risk-taking have made financial crises more frequent albeit shorter.
The balance sheet of central banks has soared to unimaginable levels, disguising risk but not eliminating it.
Read 8 tweets
Daniel Lacalle Profile picture
10 Dec 20
The ECB dangerous bubble in five charts. Thread:

1) Excess Liquidity soars to €3.4 trillion

A problem of solvency is not solved with more liquidity
The most aggressive monetary policy with one of the poorest results:

2) The ECB balance sheet is almost twice the Fed's vs GDP
Massive monetary intervention for diminishing returns:

3) The ECB balance sheet vs Economic Activity. Eurozone Manufacturing and Service Sectors PMI and Eurozone consumer confidence
Read 5 tweets
Daniel Lacalle Profile picture
28 Jul 20
The USD is not at risk of losing reserve status.

1) No contender. Use of other currencies is much weaker.
2) The US Dollar is UP vs most emerging currencies.
3) There is no Gold-backed currency out there

Gold is money. Fiat money is credit.

Thread:

1) No contender: Global use of the USD is highest and rising since 2008. Euro has a redenomination risk. Feel free to substitute the USD.
2) The US Dollar is up vs most emerging market currencies.

Other central banks are destroying purchasing power much faster and worse than the Fed.
Read 10 tweets
Daniel Lacalle Profile picture
19 Mar 20
The @ecb PEPP program is very different from the previous repurchase programs. It allows the ECB all flexibility and in essence it’s a guarantee for the massive deficits that member states will have (1)
In summary, the @ecb is going to sell euros massively at the same time as the Eurozone trade surplus, that keeps the euro stable, collapses (2)
Risking a massive euro devaluation with economic recession that could lead to years of stagnation, the @ecb bet on a V-shaped recovery is very clear. The eurozone non-euro area export growth has been disappointing and losing market share since the launch of QE. (3)
Read 5 tweets
Daniel Lacalle Profile picture
27 Sep 19
Economic freedom is the only guarantee of environmental protection. #ClimateStrikes

(Yale & Columbia Environment Protection Index, Frasier Institute Economic Freedom Index)

Open Thread:
Interventionism and socialism have never protected the environment. They always subsidize the most polluting sectors and raise taxes on citizens with the excuse of the weather.

Heritage

#ClimateStrikes
The most polluting industries are state or semi-state owned or managing state resources in countries where economic openness and freedom is minimal. #ClimateStrikes

(Climate accountability report)
Read 10 tweets

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