A problem of solvency is not solved with more liquidity
The most aggressive monetary policy with one of the poorest results:
2) The ECB balance sheet is almost twice the Fed's vs GDP
Massive monetary intervention for diminishing returns:
3) The ECB balance sheet vs Economic Activity. Eurozone Manufacturing and Service Sectors PMI and Eurozone consumer confidence
Almost insolvent eurozone sovereign countries financing themselves at negative rates, a perverse incentive to increase debt and ignore structural imbalances.
4) A policy designed to give time to make structural reforms becomes an excuse to avoid them.
A massive bond bubble with a very poor impact on equities.
5) ECB's policy, designed to be temporary, has become permanent and accelerated while equities' impact is negligible.
1) No contender. Use of other currencies is much weaker. 2) The US Dollar is UP vs most emerging currencies. 3) There is no Gold-backed currency out there
Gold is money. Fiat money is credit.
Thread:
1) No contender: Global use of the USD is highest and rising since 2008. Euro has a redenomination risk. Feel free to substitute the USD.
2) The US Dollar is up vs most emerging market currencies.
Other central banks are destroying purchasing power much faster and worse than the Fed.
The @ecb PEPP program is very different from the previous repurchase programs. It allows the ECB all flexibility and in essence it’s a guarantee for the massive deficits that member states will have (1)
In summary, the @ecb is going to sell euros massively at the same time as the Eurozone trade surplus, that keeps the euro stable, collapses (2)
Risking a massive euro devaluation with economic recession that could lead to years of stagnation, the @ecb bet on a V-shaped recovery is very clear. The eurozone non-euro area export growth has been disappointing and losing market share since the launch of QE. (3)
Economic freedom is the only guarantee of environmental protection. #ClimateStrikes
(Yale & Columbia Environment Protection Index, Frasier Institute Economic Freedom Index)
Open Thread:
Interventionism and socialism have never protected the environment. They always subsidize the most polluting sectors and raise taxes on citizens with the excuse of the weather.
The most polluting industries are state or semi-state owned or managing state resources in countries where economic openness and freedom is minimal. #ClimateStrikes
German consumers have not seen any benefit from lower wholesale power prices as renewable surcharges and higher taxes have offset all the benefits of higher competition.
The massive subsidies of the Energiewende green plan have not improved CO2 emissions (Germany will likely miss its own 2020 target) and cost up to €500 billion so far.
A new "green energy plan" of €100 billion in the eurozone runs the risk of making the same mistakes of the Energiewende. Enormous cost for little results.
1) Saudi Arabia is the OPEC country with the largest spare capacity. Although the drone attack impacts 5% of global supply, it also comes at a time when supply glut was evident, global inventories are large and substitution is relatively easy.
2) The IEA estimates the ‘call on OPEC’ at 28.3 mbd in 1H20. This is a downward revision of 0.2 mb/d compared to its previous forest and a substantial 1.4 mb/d below OPEC’s August output.
@threadreaderapp 2) The ECB has not abandoned its stimulus. It repurchases all maturities, launched a liquidity injection (TLTRO) in March 2019 and balance sheet stands at almost 40% of eurozone GDP.