Suraj Profile picture
11 Dec, 11 tweets, 5 min read
New thread for week ended Dec 11th. A quiet high performing week while the nation mourned. #VeeraVanakkam

A solid 53+ million week, well within the top 10, but a lot of competitors between 53-55m keeps it just outside top 5:

Past 3 weeks hold spots 2, 3 and 6.

1/
Daily bucket view is very consistent - five days over 8m being a record, but all in the low 8 million range preventing a larger weekly total.

As with week prior, the week ended with a strong Saturday, which is forming a nice new pattern.

2/
Month total has now crossed 88 million, which is over 8m/day sustained performance for the month to date .

Current pace is as good as or better than September, but the year end holidays may impact the month end total.

3/
Almost 165m doses done in the past three weeks has finally brought the vaccine supply inventory down below 200m after almost a month. 75-80% of this is Covishield.

4/
@SerumInstIndia are cutting production in half from 250m/month.

Total orders: 1518m
Consumed: 1180m
Available Supply: 155m
Remaining to be supplied: 183m

That’s why they’re cutting production - they’ll be done with prior orders very soon.

financialexpress.com/lifestyle/heal…

5/
Additional production is tied to @MoHFW_INDIA booster dose policy.

If boosters are started, <60m doses are needed this month, and the number falls to 40m next 2 months, before rising to 90m+ March.

Well within (lowered) mfg rate to handle still.

6/
Total and second dose rates remain very stable as weekly data showed, with the 2nd dose fraction inching up to above 70% of daily total now:

7/
Some vaccination milestones this week:

800m with at least one dose (technically reached late evening end of prior week but after cutoff)
500m total vaccinated
<300m with only one dose.

Chart heuristic:
Blue = green + red
Yellow = green - red

8/
For the month of Dec to date, India continues to dominate in share of global vaccinations, even as Europe and the Americas accelerate to combat the Xi “call me omicron instead” variant.

9/
The monthly 1st and 2nd dose totals continue to maintain the now familiar trend. With continued strong numbers the month should see 160-170m second doses done and over 200m total. How much above depends on holiday season, booster dose and children’s vaccination policies .

10/
Another strong week of vaccination goes by but with no other major news.

We hope there is good news on booster dose and children’s vaccination approvals coming in the near future, @PMOIndia and @MoHFW_INDIA .

11/11

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More from @surajbrf

27 Nov
Starting a new thread for the week ended Nov 27th.

This week was a sleeper hit, coming from nowhere to be the all time 2nd best ever week, with nearly 55 million doses.

It continues the trend of strong vaccination ramp-up since Diwali ended:

1/
With the strong week behind us, full month vaccination has also risen to almost 156 million doses, a great number given that vaccinations were slow for the first 1.5 weeks.

2/
The bucket view is misleading because the last three days were all a few thousand short of the next million bucket. Literally a few more minutes of data would have pushed them over.

With almost 8m/day, the daily average was the same as September’s scorching rate.

3/
Read 12 tweets
13 Nov
Resuming once again after Diwali. The past week saw 38 million vaccinations, close to the 40m threshold of the top 10 best weeks.

The month of Nov (to 13th) has seen 58 million vaccinations, almost equal to the total in May.

1/
The daily performance chart shows the past week very stable at 5.5-6.5m doses a day, typically around 2m first doses and 4m second doses, stabilizing rapidly from the little over 21 million in the week prior due to Diwali.

2/
The first and second dose data is better demonstrated by this graph, which shows the rapid evolution of dose breakdown since October. September was the last month of first dose acceleration; Oct and now Nov have seen a rapid move to 2nd dose delivery instead:

3/
Read 12 tweets
2 Nov
Long track record of covering India and @narendramodi eh ? Let's look at the past 4 Climate Transparency Reports since Paris 2016, to confirm your tracking capability:

2017: climate-transparency.org/wp-content/upl…

India and US blurbs:

1/
2018: climate-transparency.org/wp-content/upl…

India, China and US blurbs:

2/
2019: climate-transparency.org/wp-content/upl…

India, China and US blurbs again:

3/
Read 7 tweets
2 Nov
Your argument confuses different things - a statement on a commitment, with raw data. The right relationship is the one between the talking and the walking the talk.

How many of the G20 are in line with their Paris NDCs ? Just ONE - India.

climate-transparency.org/wp-content/upl…

1/
And another:
germanwatch.org/en/19552

The US sits comfortably among the worst in both.

To quote a movie dialogue, your egos writing checks your country can’t cash.

2/
Literally the entirety of your argument is that the 3rd biggest economy (PPP terms) is the third biggest emitter. This is as insightful as arguing that water is wet.

Homilies about big emitters having do ‘do something’ are useless virtue signaling noise.

3/
Read 9 tweets
1 Nov
This thread celebrates the occasion of UPI transaction value crossing the $100 billion a month mark, reaching $103 billion in Oct 2021, up from $87 billion in Sept.

npci.org.in/what-we-do/upi…

UPI transaction value grew 18% MoM in Oct, aided by a 17% MoM growth in volume.

1/
Trailing 12 month transaction volume is now 34.5 billion . This is by a distance the most of any country in the world, having gained almost 10 billion from the FY 2020-21 end volume: dazeinfo.com/2021/05/11/rea…

The slope of this graph is going parabolic:

2/
Trailing 12-month transaction value is currently $852 billion, on track to cross $1 trillion before fiscal year end in March 2022.

The value graph is also accelerating now, and in fact Covid was an inflection point from where UPI has accelerated in adoption and use.

3/
Read 10 tweets
30 Oct
Resuming regular reporting for last week of Oct. Since Dussehra, vaccination has been mostly unremarkable, except that almost every day sees more 2nd doses than first now. This week still sits within the top 10 weeks:

1/ Image
October should end a shade under 180 million doses, around the same ballpark as August, despite 1.5 weeks of the Dussehra festivities.

Data below is up to Oct 30th, i.e. one more day remaining in the month.

2/ Image
While October seems slower, it has been in fact accounted for more weeks in the top 10 than Aug, though the first wk is mostly driven by the ending days of September.

The holiday interregnum may account for perhaps 30-40 million delayed doses; full month is still ~6m/day.

3/ Image
Read 14 tweets

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