Possible scenarios for Omicron in AB if nothing is done.
We are at the nascent phase of new VOC spread (only 23 reported cases), when *a lot* can be done to effectively halt it or at least significantly slow it down.
Prevent more sparks from coming. Make the tinder less dry. 1/
Let's not do with Omicron what we did with Alpha and Delta. We don't need more deaths and suffering.
At this stage *preventing more importations* is essential.
Less fire starters --> smaller chance of a big fire
Travel Quarantine. Test. Vaccinate. 2/
Make the tinder less dry:
3rd doses, vaccinate kids, #FreeTheRATs, deploy airborne precautions (N95 for all, ventilation, CO2 monitors, HEPA air purifiers, education about airborne transmission)
Prevent super-spreading:
Caps on public & business gathering's sizes
3/
Make sure everyone in the world has the access to vaccines.
Omicron shows that:
*No one is safe until everyone is safe*
Can we pls get off the rollercoaster? Have the true normalcy back? Could you please not make the 5th wave?
Bad future vs. good future👇
All depends on if @jkenney & @CMOH_Alberta decide to use 'light-touch' measures to avoid 5th 🌊
Green ones below👇are light-touch minimally-invasive measures. We are not using them as much as we could. They work better if used early. @jkenney@CMOH_Alberta -- it is on you to implement them and protect Albertans from 5th wave.
2/
Vaccines alone won't prevent the 5th wave. Countries w/ higher vaccination rate than AB but w/ insufficient public health measures experience increase in cases and hospitalizations.
(No 'decoupling' even in 88% vaxxed Portugal)
Who is responsible for protecting kids' health in our province?
In the future when those kids grow up, will current decision makers (all levels) be able to demonstrate that they did *everything possible* to prevent infections? Probably not. 1/
E.g. 1) Despite the knowledge that SARS2 is airborne, there are no airborne precautions at schools (or precautions appropriate for a pathogen that "can linger in fine aerosols and remain suspended in the air we breath"=PTCLIFAARSITAWB).
2/
So, no precautions against PTCLIFAARSITAWB at schools --> No real-time ventilation assessment, no air purifiers, no mandated and provided N95+ grade respirators for kids and teachers.
3/
Note: AH has access to data, computers, and internet even more than me. I have 1 brain. They have many brains to work on models and monitor global situation
We could have A (no COVID→normalcy back)
But GOA and AH chose B for all of us 1/
Please note how close the reality is to the centre trajectory projected 8 weeks ago, when overall cases were still going down
The spread of SARS-CoV-2 is HIGHLY predictable.
(If someone tells you otherwise, that only means that it is beyond their personal analytical abilities) 2/
Others have been saying the same thing as me. Below are models by Prof. Colijn. From *May 31* (!).
GOA and AH and some advisors must have seen them (that’s their job), but they did this: 🙈🙉 lalalala!, while implying that “the pandemic is over”.
We can’t vaccinate our way out of the pandemic.
We need both: Vaccines AND Public Health (PH) measures.
It was barely possible w/ original variant (A). W/ Delta, both PH measures and vaccines became less effective (B). But combined – they may still work.
Theoretical model:
1/
Even if vaccines are only 60% efficient against transmission & only 75% eligible people (64% total) get vaccinated, by combining PH measures & vaxx we may still be able to control the spread (C). Barely.
But…
2/
But if by allowing the reckless spread we culture a variant 2x more transmissible than Delta → our current strategy (i.e. acting only when ICUs get full) won’t work anymore.
Our tools: PH measures & vaccines will not be effective enough to quickly halt the exp. growth (D)