Possible scenarios for Omicron in AB if nothing is done.

We are at the nascent phase of new VOC spread (only 23 reported cases), when *a lot* can be done to effectively halt it or at least significantly slow it down.

Prevent more sparks from coming. Make the tinder less dry.
1/
Let's not do with Omicron what we did with Alpha and Delta. We don't need more deaths and suffering.

At this stage *preventing more importations* is essential.
Less fire starters --> smaller chance of a big fire

Travel Quarantine. Test. Vaccinate.
2/
Make the tinder less dry:

3rd doses, vaccinate kids, #FreeTheRATs, deploy airborne precautions (N95 for all, ventilation, CO2 monitors, HEPA air purifiers, education about airborne transmission)

Prevent super-spreading:
Caps on public & business gathering's sizes

3/
Make sure everyone in the world has the access to vaccines.

Omicron shows that:
*No one is safe until everyone is safe*

Please sign the parliamentary petition:
petitions.ourcommons.ca/en/Petition/De…
4/
Address SARS2 spread in schools:

Elementary school kids are the most infected group in AB

#CleanTheAir !
KN95 respirators for all kids and staff
HEPA air purifiers
Ventilation
CO2 monitors to assess air quality in real time

RATs, Move online if possible

#EndThePandemic

5/ Graph source: Alberta Health https://www.alberta.ca/stats/co
#EndThePandemic so that *all the kids* can go safely to an in person school.

This is important: many high risk kids (e.g. immunocompromised) are deprived of social contact since 20 months.

Insisting on letting COVID spread in the community is harming them. (And almost everyone)
On Dec 18 in person schools are closing for holidays.
This may substantially decrease Rt and slow the rate of Omicron spread.

This time should be used to make schools as safe as possible: ensure that air will be clean and kept clean when kids come back --> see tweet #5

6/
*Omicron is dangerous, even if it would be milder* (which most probably it isn't)

The virus that spreads faster, even if milder, kills more people than a more severe but slower one 👇

7/
Projections from Public Health Agency of Canada.

Orange (mustard) line is for Omicron

"If we maintain the current levels of transmission and Omicron successfully establishes"

8/
canada.ca/content/dam/ph…

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More from @GosiaGasperoPhD

14 Nov
Hey Alberta, @jkenney @CMOH_Alberta
5th time?

Can we pls get off the rollercoaster? Have the true normalcy back? Could you please not make the 5th wave?

Bad future vs. good future👇
All depends on if @jkenney & @CMOH_Alberta decide to use 'light-touch' measures to avoid 5th 🌊
Green ones below👇are light-touch minimally-invasive measures. We are not using them as much as we could. They work better if used early.
@jkenney @CMOH_Alberta -- it is on you to implement them and protect Albertans from 5th wave.

2/
Vaccines alone won't prevent the 5th wave. Countries w/ higher vaccination rate than AB but w/ insufficient public health measures experience increase in cases and hospitalizations.
(No 'decoupling' even in 88% vaxxed Portugal)

3/
Read 9 tweets
13 Nov
Who is responsible for protecting kids' health in our province?
In the future when those kids grow up, will current decision makers (all levels) be able to demonstrate that they did *everything possible* to prevent infections? Probably not.
1/
E.g. 1) Despite the knowledge that SARS2 is airborne, there are no airborne precautions at schools (or precautions appropriate for a pathogen that "can linger in fine aerosols and remain suspended in the air we breath"=PTCLIFAARSITAWB).

2/
So, no precautions against PTCLIFAARSITAWB at schools --> No real-time ventilation assessment, no air purifiers, no mandated and provided N95+ grade respirators for kids and teachers.

3/
Read 6 tweets
25 Aug
AB daily cases are doubling every 14 days.

At this rate AB can reach:
2000 daily cases on Sept 11
4000 daily cases on Sept 25

ICUs may be full around Sept 11 [Sept 01-Sept 27] (see next tweet)

GoA can act now and prevent deaths and suffering or again wait till ICUs are full. Image
'ICUs/daily cases' ratio is *not lower* than in 3rd wave. 7 day average stays above 7%.

In the 3rd wave ICUs were more than full (in debt mode - postponed elective surgeries and such) at 2000 daily new cases.

Hence we can expect ICUs full @ 2000 daily new cases or earlier.

2/ Image
Reopening in-person schools at the time when ICUs are about to be full is not safe.

AB has just 47 paediatric ICU beds.

We should now use all the tools we have to stop this spread. And then reopen safely.

3/
Read 6 tweets
16 Aug
Here are projections I made in May/June

Note: AH has access to data, computers, and internet even more than me. I have 1 brain. They have many brains to work on models and monitor global situation

We could have A (no COVID→normalcy back)
But GOA and AH chose B for all of us
1/
Please note how close the reality is to the centre trajectory projected 8 weeks ago, when overall cases were still going down
The spread of SARS-CoV-2 is HIGHLY predictable.
(If someone tells you otherwise, that only means that it is beyond their personal analytical abilities)
2/
Others have been saying the same thing as me. Below are models by Prof. Colijn. From *May 31* (!).

GOA and AH and some advisors must have seen them (that’s their job), but they did this: 🙈🙉 lalalala!, while implying that “the pandemic is over”.

theglobeandmail.com/canada/article…

3/
Read 7 tweets
10 Aug
AB is in the #DeltaWave
Daily cases doubling time: 9.8 days

At this rate we can expect:
5000 daily new cases on Sept 14
8000 daily new cases on Sept 21
(pls see confidence intervals on the graphs)

5-8K daily cases is when we might expect ICUs full
...
1/
The link between cases and severe illness is not broken.
The ratio is different. But the correlation stays.

2/
In UK, hosp:cases ratio is now reportedly 4x lower.
In Israel this ratio is now 2.5-3x lower than in the 3rd wave.

In AB our ICUs were full at 2000 daily cases.
2000 x 2.5 = 5000
2000 x 4 = 8000

Hence, we could expect to have ICUs full at around 5000-8000 daily cases.

3/
Read 7 tweets
23 Jul
We can’t vaccinate our way out of the pandemic.
We need both: Vaccines AND Public Health (PH) measures.

It was barely possible w/ original variant (A). W/ Delta, both PH measures and vaccines became less effective (B). But combined – they may still work.

Theoretical model:

1/ ImageImage
Even if vaccines are only 60% efficient against transmission & only 75% eligible people (64% total) get vaccinated, by combining PH measures & vaxx we may still be able to control the spread (C). Barely.

But…

2/ ImageImage
But if by allowing the reckless spread we culture a variant 2x more transmissible than Delta → our current strategy (i.e. acting only when ICUs get full) won’t work anymore.
Our tools: PH measures & vaccines will not be effective enough to quickly halt the exp. growth (D)

3/ Image
Read 6 tweets

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