Can we pls get off the rollercoaster? Have the true normalcy back? Could you please not make the 5th wave?
Bad future vs. good future👇
All depends on if @jkenney & @CMOH_Alberta decide to use 'light-touch' measures to avoid 5th 🌊
Green ones below👇are light-touch minimally-invasive measures. We are not using them as much as we could. They work better if used early. @jkenney@CMOH_Alberta -- it is on you to implement them and protect Albertans from 5th wave.
2/
Vaccines alone won't prevent the 5th wave. Countries w/ higher vaccination rate than AB but w/ insufficient public health measures experience increase in cases and hospitalizations.
(No 'decoupling' even in 88% vaxxed Portugal)
3/
In order to prevent the 5th wave, the spread in elementary schools needs to be addressed. Since September elementary school kids have the highest infection rate among all age groups and it is now growing.
Kids < 12 are 100% not vaccinated
4/
Please @jkenney@CMOH_Alberta this time don't dismiss me, don't send trolls my way, don't call me and others 'fear mongers'.
Instead, please treat this information seriously. And don't let more people suffer and die.
It's easy to prevent the 5th 🌊
From CBC article on Jun 15 👇
Leaders can stop the🌊
We have many minimally invasive tools now:
✅scientific certainty that SARS2 spreads via inhaled aerosols suspended in the air & knowledge how to clean the air
✅supply of high quality N95 respirators (soft comfy ones too)
✅rapid antigen tests
✅vaccines
They just need to be used.
It is on @jkenney and @CMOH_Alberta to use all this tools as much as possible in order to stop SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
Good policies prevent the waves.
Bad policies make waves.
7/
Above I showed not only models, but also real life "experiments" from Europe.
The evidence of what to do and what not to do is extremely clear.
8/
Who is responsible for protecting kids' health in our province?
In the future when those kids grow up, will current decision makers (all levels) be able to demonstrate that they did *everything possible* to prevent infections? Probably not. 1/
E.g. 1) Despite the knowledge that SARS2 is airborne, there are no airborne precautions at schools (or precautions appropriate for a pathogen that "can linger in fine aerosols and remain suspended in the air we breath"=PTCLIFAARSITAWB).
2/
So, no precautions against PTCLIFAARSITAWB at schools --> No real-time ventilation assessment, no air purifiers, no mandated and provided N95+ grade respirators for kids and teachers.
3/
Note: AH has access to data, computers, and internet even more than me. I have 1 brain. They have many brains to work on models and monitor global situation
We could have A (no COVID→normalcy back)
But GOA and AH chose B for all of us 1/
Please note how close the reality is to the centre trajectory projected 8 weeks ago, when overall cases were still going down
The spread of SARS-CoV-2 is HIGHLY predictable.
(If someone tells you otherwise, that only means that it is beyond their personal analytical abilities) 2/
Others have been saying the same thing as me. Below are models by Prof. Colijn. From *May 31* (!).
GOA and AH and some advisors must have seen them (that’s their job), but they did this: 🙈🙉 lalalala!, while implying that “the pandemic is over”.
We can’t vaccinate our way out of the pandemic.
We need both: Vaccines AND Public Health (PH) measures.
It was barely possible w/ original variant (A). W/ Delta, both PH measures and vaccines became less effective (B). But combined – they may still work.
Theoretical model:
1/
Even if vaccines are only 60% efficient against transmission & only 75% eligible people (64% total) get vaccinated, by combining PH measures & vaxx we may still be able to control the spread (C). Barely.
But…
2/
But if by allowing the reckless spread we culture a variant 2x more transmissible than Delta → our current strategy (i.e. acting only when ICUs get full) won’t work anymore.
Our tools: PH measures & vaccines will not be effective enough to quickly halt the exp. growth (D)