Hey Alberta, @jkenney @CMOH_Alberta
5th time?

Can we pls get off the rollercoaster? Have the true normalcy back? Could you please not make the 5th wave?

Bad future vs. good future👇
All depends on if @jkenney & @CMOH_Alberta decide to use 'light-touch' measures to avoid 5th 🌊
Green ones below👇are light-touch minimally-invasive measures. We are not using them as much as we could. They work better if used early.
@jkenney @CMOH_Alberta -- it is on you to implement them and protect Albertans from 5th wave.

2/
Vaccines alone won't prevent the 5th wave. Countries w/ higher vaccination rate than AB but w/ insufficient public health measures experience increase in cases and hospitalizations.
(No 'decoupling' even in 88% vaxxed Portugal)

3/
In order to prevent the 5th wave, the spread in elementary schools needs to be addressed. Since September elementary school kids have the highest infection rate among all age groups and it is now growing.
Kids < 12 are 100% not vaccinated

4/
Please @jkenney @CMOH_Alberta this time don't dismiss me, don't send trolls my way, don't call me and others 'fear mongers'.
Instead, please treat this information seriously. And don't let more people suffer and die.

It's easy to prevent the 5th 🌊

From CBC article on Jun 15 👇
Leaders can stop the🌊
We have many minimally invasive tools now:
✅scientific certainty that SARS2 spreads via inhaled aerosols suspended in the air & knowledge how to clean the air
✅supply of high quality N95 respirators (soft comfy ones too)
✅rapid antigen tests
✅vaccines
They just need to be used.
It is on @jkenney and @CMOH_Alberta to use all this tools as much as possible in order to stop SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Good policies prevent the waves.
Bad policies make waves.

7/
Above I showed not only models, but also real life "experiments" from Europe.

The evidence of what to do and what not to do is extremely clear.

8/

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More from @GosiaGasperoPhD

13 Nov
Who is responsible for protecting kids' health in our province?
In the future when those kids grow up, will current decision makers (all levels) be able to demonstrate that they did *everything possible* to prevent infections? Probably not.
1/
E.g. 1) Despite the knowledge that SARS2 is airborne, there are no airborne precautions at schools (or precautions appropriate for a pathogen that "can linger in fine aerosols and remain suspended in the air we breath"=PTCLIFAARSITAWB).

2/
So, no precautions against PTCLIFAARSITAWB at schools --> No real-time ventilation assessment, no air purifiers, no mandated and provided N95+ grade respirators for kids and teachers.

3/
Read 6 tweets
25 Aug
AB daily cases are doubling every 14 days.

At this rate AB can reach:
2000 daily cases on Sept 11
4000 daily cases on Sept 25

ICUs may be full around Sept 11 [Sept 01-Sept 27] (see next tweet)

GoA can act now and prevent deaths and suffering or again wait till ICUs are full. Image
'ICUs/daily cases' ratio is *not lower* than in 3rd wave. 7 day average stays above 7%.

In the 3rd wave ICUs were more than full (in debt mode - postponed elective surgeries and such) at 2000 daily new cases.

Hence we can expect ICUs full @ 2000 daily new cases or earlier.

2/ Image
Reopening in-person schools at the time when ICUs are about to be full is not safe.

AB has just 47 paediatric ICU beds.

We should now use all the tools we have to stop this spread. And then reopen safely.

3/
Read 6 tweets
16 Aug
Here are projections I made in May/June

Note: AH has access to data, computers, and internet even more than me. I have 1 brain. They have many brains to work on models and monitor global situation

We could have A (no COVID→normalcy back)
But GOA and AH chose B for all of us
1/
Please note how close the reality is to the centre trajectory projected 8 weeks ago, when overall cases were still going down
The spread of SARS-CoV-2 is HIGHLY predictable.
(If someone tells you otherwise, that only means that it is beyond their personal analytical abilities)
2/
Others have been saying the same thing as me. Below are models by Prof. Colijn. From *May 31* (!).

GOA and AH and some advisors must have seen them (that’s their job), but they did this: 🙈🙉 lalalala!, while implying that “the pandemic is over”.

theglobeandmail.com/canada/article…

3/
Read 7 tweets
10 Aug
AB is in the #DeltaWave
Daily cases doubling time: 9.8 days

At this rate we can expect:
5000 daily new cases on Sept 14
8000 daily new cases on Sept 21
(pls see confidence intervals on the graphs)

5-8K daily cases is when we might expect ICUs full
...
1/
The link between cases and severe illness is not broken.
The ratio is different. But the correlation stays.

2/
In UK, hosp:cases ratio is now reportedly 4x lower.
In Israel this ratio is now 2.5-3x lower than in the 3rd wave.

In AB our ICUs were full at 2000 daily cases.
2000 x 2.5 = 5000
2000 x 4 = 8000

Hence, we could expect to have ICUs full at around 5000-8000 daily cases.

3/
Read 7 tweets
23 Jul
We can’t vaccinate our way out of the pandemic.
We need both: Vaccines AND Public Health (PH) measures.

It was barely possible w/ original variant (A). W/ Delta, both PH measures and vaccines became less effective (B). But combined – they may still work.

Theoretical model:

1/ ImageImage
Even if vaccines are only 60% efficient against transmission & only 75% eligible people (64% total) get vaccinated, by combining PH measures & vaxx we may still be able to control the spread (C). Barely.

But…

2/ ImageImage
But if by allowing the reckless spread we culture a variant 2x more transmissible than Delta → our current strategy (i.e. acting only when ICUs get full) won’t work anymore.
Our tools: PH measures & vaccines will not be effective enough to quickly halt the exp. growth (D)

3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
13 May
"better data along does not guarantee better outcomes"

Especially when results coming from such data are actively dismissed and purposefully obfuscated.

On Feb 12 AB had enough data to be *certain* that w/o extra measures it will produce the 3rd wave.

1/
On Feb 12 AB had enough data to be *certain* that w/o extra measures it'll produce the 3rd wave.
It was *clear*.

Thank you everyone who contributed to the 3rd wave by saying things like: "models are wrong".
Even w/ limited data, but knowing the properties of the phenomenon, models predict the future darn well.

On Feb 01 I knew, that if we won't implement measures, there'll be a 3rd wave.

On Mar 17 I could bet my soul, left kidney, and a collection of stuffies on that.
Read 8 tweets

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