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Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
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10 Aug, 7 tweets, 3 min read
AB is in the #DeltaWave
Daily cases doubling time: 9.8 days

At this rate we can expect:
5000 daily new cases on Sept 14
8000 daily new cases on Sept 21
(pls see confidence intervals on the graphs)

5-8K daily cases is when we might expect ICUs full
...
1/
The link between cases and severe illness is not broken.
The ratio is different. But the correlation stays.

2/
In UK, hosp:cases ratio is now reportedly 4x lower.
In Israel this ratio is now 2.5-3x lower than in the 3rd wave.

In AB our ICUs were full at 2000 daily cases.
2000 x 2.5 = 5000
2000 x 4 = 8000

Hence, we could expect to have ICUs full at around 5000-8000 daily cases.

3/
Reminder: exponential growth

From 2000 to 8000 daily cases it't just 2 (two) doubling times.
2000 x 2 x 2

It goes fast.
As fast as from 50 to 200

4/
Elementary school children are not vaccinated. They don't have any "personal shield".

5/
Protecting kids only by "vaccinating their adults" won't work.

If we'd have conditions exactly like last Sept, but w/ Delta and vaccine 60% efficient against transmission,
we'd need to vaccinate 95% of *total* population to control the community transmission (get R to 1)
...
6/
We need both vaccines AND public health measures.

We need TTI,
mask mandates (KN95 and up)
ventilation
air filtration

and clear goal to *stop the spread*

#ProtectOurProvince #PoPAB
#ProtectOurKids

7/

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Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
23 Jul
We can’t vaccinate our way out of the pandemic.
We need both: Vaccines AND Public Health (PH) measures.

It was barely possible w/ original variant (A). W/ Delta, both PH measures and vaccines became less effective (B). But combined – they may still work.

Theoretical model:

1/ ImageImage
Even if vaccines are only 60% efficient against transmission & only 75% eligible people (64% total) get vaccinated, by combining PH measures & vaxx we may still be able to control the spread (C). Barely.

But…

2/ ImageImage
But if by allowing the reckless spread we culture a variant 2x more transmissible than Delta → our current strategy (i.e. acting only when ICUs get full) won’t work anymore.
Our tools: PH measures & vaccines will not be effective enough to quickly halt the exp. growth (D)

3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
13 May
"better data along does not guarantee better outcomes"

Especially when results coming from such data are actively dismissed and purposefully obfuscated.

On Feb 12 AB had enough data to be *certain* that w/o extra measures it will produce the 3rd wave.

1/
On Feb 12 AB had enough data to be *certain* that w/o extra measures it'll produce the 3rd wave.
It was *clear*.

Thank you everyone who contributed to the 3rd wave by saying things like: "models are wrong".
Even w/ limited data, but knowing the properties of the phenomenon, models predict the future darn well.

On Feb 01 I knew, that if we won't implement measures, there'll be a 3rd wave.

On Mar 17 I could bet my soul, left kidney, and a collection of stuffies on that.
Read 8 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
1 May
Alberta: Current measures made the growth rate less extreme.
B117 is doubling now every 20 days instead of every 7 days.
It's still very fast - similar to doubling time in the 2nd wave (18 days)

Current measures are insufficient to bend the curve downwards.

Ln scale graph 👇
At this rate we can expect:

3,000 daily new cases on May 12
4,000 daily new cases on May 22

2/
This wave is worse than the fall one.

2nd wave: at 1877 daily cases we had 100 ICUs
3rd wave: at 1860 daily cases we have 146 ICUs, and *we are still growing*

That's *despite* many people being already vaccinated. W/o vaccines it would be even worse.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
27 Mar
Alberta could see the same number of new COVID-19 cases by mid-April as there were at the height of the second wave in December.

~2000 by April 19,
~4000 by April 29

Thank you @laurby for interviewing me for this article.

1/
 edmontonjournal.com/news/researche…
Projection from 2 days ago. Turns out conservative.

Today's actual total cases: 717 (projected: 563)
Most recent B117 doubling time: 7.3 days (faster then on this graph)

2/
W/ update: calculated today, the B117 doubling time is 7.3
R value: 1.46

3/
Read 11 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
19 Mar
B117 grows exponentially in AB *since 3 months*.
Doubling time as of Mar 14: 11 days, R=1.29

That’s fast. During AB fall surge cases were doubling every 18 days.

At this rate AB may have:

Apr 19, 1000 daily new cases,
May 03, 2000 daily new cases

1/
Future effects of reopenings and vaccinations are not included in this projection.
Reopenings will speed the growth up.

Vaccines…

2/
We don’t know exactly how effective the vaccines are against transmission.
Let’s assume 60% effectiveness:
Then, in order to break the exponential growth of B117, i.e. to reduce its R from current 1.29 to 1.00, 38% of people would need to be vaccinated.
We are not there yet.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
13 Mar
Alberta:
Announced* new B117 cases seem to be doubling every 2 weeks.

At this rate AB could have:
1000+ daily cases around May 10,
2000+ daily cases in late May

*Please read footnotes under the graph.
1/
It is not doubling as fast as it could, e.g. not every 7 days.

But doubling every 2 weeks is still *very fast*.

It's *faster* than Alberta's November surge, when cases were doubling every 2.5 weeks.

2/
In theory vaccine could flatten such growth, if 40% of Albertans would get vaccinated and if the vaccine would be 60% effective against transmission.

As of today, 5.5% of ppl in AB received at least one dose.

Meanwhile, reopenings will likely increase the rate of spread.

3/
Read 4 tweets

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