Thread by @tparsi

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Important piece on US-Israeli tensions re Iran talks. It fails to point out a key conclusion tho: Biden’s immense efforts to appease Israel in hope of tempering its opposition to the JCPOA has not only failed but was likely a mistake from the outset >>

nytimes.com/2021/12/10/us/…

2. Diverging Israeli and American views on the JCPOA is nothing new - on the contrary. But senior officials in the Biden team thought Obama could have handled the Israelis better through closer coordination and by taking some of their hawkish advice. >>

3. The fundamental question was: Are Israel and America’s views on a negotiated settlement with Iran irreconcilable, or is there a way to clinch a lasting deal with Iran that also makes Israel happy? >>

4. The answer lies in understanding that the details of the deal aren’t the problem, but rather the very idea of the US & Iran signing ANY deal that prevents a bomb, but also reduces US-Iran tensions and lifts sanctions that have disabled Iran from growing its regional power. >>

5. As I write in @ForeignAffairs, many US partners worry more about a US-Iran rapprochement and the ensuing geopolitical shifts it will spur - the regional balance tilting toward Iran, the US leaving the region - than Iran’s nuclear advances.>>

foreignaffairs.com/articles/middl…

6. “So long as the United States works to contain Iran’s political influence and undermine its economy, the balance of the region will artificially tilt in favor of these states—a tilt that their own power cannot sustain.” foreignaffairs.com/articles/middl…

7. But to the frustration of some Obama officials, the Biden team went down the road of seeking to square this circle - although Obama’s experience had shown that no amount of deference or consultation could change their categorical opposition to a deal with Iran.>>

8. In Dec 2020, @brhodes publicly implored Biden not to repeat this mistake: “I plead with [Biden]," he said on @PodSaveAmerica. "Do not think there is any ounce of good faith that will be coming your way from Bibi Netanyahu, from MBS, and from the Tom Cottons of this world…>>

9. “...These people have no interest in a deal. They've never had an interest in a deal. How many times do we have to go through this play? This is in the hands of the Biden people to say: We don't need to listen to these people." >>

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pod…

10. But Biden chose to listen to them - crucial time in the spring was spent on getting Israel, Saudi & UAE onboard with diplomacy rather than going back into the JCPOA.

Netanyahu didn’t budge an inch, but when Bennett came in, the Biden scored some early wins.>>

11. Bennett agreed to, for instance, avoid attacking Biden’s diplomacy publicly and play politics with the US-Israel relationship. (And apparently, he also agreed to coordinate Israel’s attacks against Iran with Biden - more on that later.) >>

12. But as soon as prospects for a deal actually grew, Bennett started to backtrack from the agreement and publicly voice his concerns about Biden’s desire to revive the JCPOA. This, in turn, revealed that on SUBSTANCE, Biden’s hugging of Israel had not shifted Bennett an inch.>>

13. Yet, Biden has continued to appease Israel. The NYT reports that Biden began ramping up Trump’s maximum pressure sanctions (which Biden officials publicly have said are counterproductive) and issue military threats partly in an effort to calm Israel.>>

14. The timing of the events, as well as Biden officials’ lack of confidence in these measures, leave me with the impression that they were done MAINLY - not partly - to appease Israel.>>

15. This line in the NYT piece nails the folly of hugging Israel: "Despite the tougher American talk, Israeli officials left worried that the diplomatic outreach to Iran would continue."

Indeed, Israel’s greatest worry is that diplomacy SUCCEEDS, not that it fails.>>

16. The NYT continues: “Israeli officials have not been reassured. They are increasingly concerned that the United States will eventually reach a deal with Tehran and then seek to block Israeli intelligence services from carrying out covert sabotage attacks.”>>

17. It goes on to say that Israel seeks a “guarantee” that the US will not seek to restrain their sabotage campaign, even if the JCPOA is restored. Read that again.

So Israel wants to be able to continue to attack Iran EVEN AFTER Tehran’s path to a bomb has been blocked!>>

18. Given Biden’s refusal to provide Iran with assurances that the US will keep its word and stay in the JCPOA beyond his own term, it will be interesting if he offers Israel a guarantee that it can continue to attack Iran even after the JCPOA is restored.>>

19. Back to Biden’s earlier deal with Bennett. The NYT reveals that Israel “consulted” with the US before launching two covert strikes against Iran in June and September. The piece doesn’t reveal if the US tried to stop Israel.>>

20. Regardless, in Tehran’s eyes, this confirms their view that Israel is not acting in contrast to US policy, rather, it is an extension of US policy. Iran likely sees the Israeli attacks as AMERICAN efforts to pressure Iran as part of Biden’s continuation of Trump’s policies.>>

21. Similarly, the US often sees or portrays attacks by Iraqi militias on US troops as being ordered or approved by Iran - even as US officials admit that after the assassination of Soleimani, Iran has lost significant control over them.>>

22. US officials told me that one reason Biden chose not to return to the JCPOA quickly in Jan (a big mistake) was due to Iraqi militia attacks on US troops. There was no evidence that Iran had ordered the attacks, but also saw no evidence that Iran had tried to prevent them.>>

23. If the US interprets such attacks with no evidence of Iranian approval this way, how will Iran interpret Israeli attacks on Iran that the US media reveals came after “consultations” with the US? >>

24. One final point: There is a curious sentence in the NYT piece. "Israeli officials, on the other hand, believe that Iran has continued a clandestine effort to build a bomb since 2003." ?? >>

25. If this is true, has Israel shared that intelligence with the US? If so, it must be quite unconvincing since the CIA has rejected it. If it hasn’t been shared, why hasn’t it? And why did the NYT publish this without investigating these basic questions?>>

26. The moral of the story is this: US and Israeli interests on Iran diplomacy are irreconcilable. Biden’s efforts to square the circle have predictably failed. Biden must choose whether he will pursue America’s interest or Israel. This should NOT be a difficult choice.//