VIX below all pivots fractionally 7-Dec, convincingly 8-Dec
VXX 7-Dec
Put-Call extreme other way! 2nd time in row that optimism extreme has moved to fear extreme in about 1 month
Maybe more options savvy market now
Lastly no change to valuation paradigm of covid rally which has been SPX forward P/E between 20-22.5 for much of that time
red = multiples of 5
gray dashes = 22.5
Considering the Timing & Technicals
Pretty much have to go with trends on the main indexes
If technical status changes back to bearish then OK but not happening now
(RUT & ARKK different story)
Indexes: Prefer bullish, especially big cap tech. May have some shuffle with FOMC as I do think Powell under pressure to taper - may balance with language about gradual rate hikes though.
Cryptos: Pulling for key low IN, if rally on then we should see improvements across board early Monday 13-Dec around 5:00 am ET give or take a few hours, OR some last low evening 13-Dec then up
Safe Havens: Crushed last week, could be more stable but room to go lower
VIX under 22 edge to stock bulls
TLT under 149.40 risk of more downside
Indexes seem heavy but context: SPX down only -5.2% from high to low tick (maybe not coincidence near 5%); NDX -7.3%, RUT already -12.8%
Basic idea is timing (astro) conditions negative enough, along with recent major sentiment extreme reached early Nov...
... that I think markets on tap for -10% SPX, roughly
A LOT of negatives in play this week, hence my crash call 3-Dec to 13-Dec but given drops that have already happened, market may not go straight down every day
Thinking bounce chances best Tuesday session after 10:00 AM ET
And overnight Weds into early pre-market Thurs
But I'm not really pushing buying the bounces (maybe ETH & NQ?), I'm looking to get out of the way & re-short
Crypto has better chance of lows being in with those wicks but indexes I will be shocked, SHOCKED, if Friday 3-Dec is it