12/14 Texas C19 Update: Bag o' Nothing

THREAD:

* Feel like I'm waiting on a wave that isn't coming
* Paddling on my surfboard in a calm ocean, might be time to paddle to shore and go home
* Widespread immunity? Starting to look that way
* Winter 2021 vs 2020 LOL

1/n
12/14 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/4:
* Positivity rate really flattening, at 7.29%. Upcoming days are same
* Testing starting to flatten ~90K per day
* Cases will start flattening as well
* Covidestim Rt 1.18

2/n
.
12/14 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Winter 2021 in a slow climb, but likely flattening in coming days.
* 2021 Winter wave vs 2020, both positivity and cases, isn't comparable right now. -3 full points, and -3K cases.

3/n
.
12/14 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* Admits 7DMA has actually declined to 419 the past 2 days.
* 2020 leaving 2021 in the dust
* Hospital census slowly rising but may flatten as admits decline
* % of beds tagged as Covid at 5.2%, census at 3204

covid-texas.csullender.com
.
4/n
.
12/14 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* ICU portion of the bed census at 984. Five+ weeks below 1000
* Not much more to say as its still failure to launch
* See regional breakdown I did yesterday for deeper dives on hospitalizations

5/n
.
12/14 Conclusion

* Reminder that the 20 vs 21 charts have "Day #" on the X axis, not dates
* Start dates for both years are in the chart titles
* Across the board, all the 2021 Winter metrics are miles behind this point in the 2020 waves
* #immunity ??

6/end

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More from @therealarod1984

13 Dec
12/12 Texas Regional Hospital Analysis

THREAD

As mentioned in the Covid update this morning, I'll present some hospital numbers broken down by TSA Region...

Summary: Most of the spread is confined to the northern and western parts of the state

1/n
Census & Rates of growth for Panhandle and Far West TX.

AMA is ahead of LBB. ELP is ahead of MAF. 1 of 2 things happening:

1) Spread is moving South & East. Or
2) AMA & ELP both saw much smaller Summer 2021 waves than LBB & MAF. An immunity question opposed to geography

2/n
.
Looking at the Big Metros on the East and South sides, there is little growth right now. DFW & SAT generally single digit growth, AUS showing some in recent days, HOU still negative growth.

These cities are the big drivers of hosp numbers so we will need to be watchin

3/n
.
Read 4 tweets
13 Dec
12/12 Texas C19 Update: Still Waiting

THREAD:

* Moderate spread in the North, still virtually none in the Southern part of the state
* Widespread immunity?
* Winter 2021 vs 2020 are barely comparable
* Same story, different day

1/n
12/12 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/2:
* Positivity rate flat at 7.21%
* Testing recovered to 85K per day, looks to be climbing
* Should mean more positives and cases in upcoming days
* Covidestim Rt 1.15

2/n
.
12/12 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Winter 2021 starting a slow climb. Should be an increasing number of cases out there
* 2020 Winter wave was about to really explode at this point, two days from now. Will 2021? TBD but likely no.

3/n
.
Read 6 tweets
11 Dec
12/10 Texas C19 Update: Paper Tiger

THREAD:

* Its all in the northern part of the state, the south still flat
* Yawn
* Is this a sign of widespread enough immunity?
* 2020 is wiping the floor with 2021
* Late wave or small wave? TBD

1/n
12/10 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 11/30:
* Pos rate slowly climbing to 7.22%
* Tests & Positives recovering from Thanksgiving
* Upcoming incomplete days for pos% look super flat
* Covidestim Rt 1.05

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
12/10 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Winter 2021 and 2020: No comparison
* Will the southern part of the state see spread? So far the answer is no. But still early. Kinda.

3/n
. ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
6 Dec
12/6 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Winter wave 2021 still bored and "sleepy" compared to 2020
* At this point, Thanksgiving should be well in the rear view mirror so what's the reason?
* Positivity Rate, Cases, Hospitalizations & Hosp C19 Admits all slowly rising

1/n
.
12/6 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 11/26:
* Pos rate is the only reason we know for certain there is a wave
* Pos rate 6.49%
* Thanksgiving tanking of both tests & positives
* Covidestim Rt crosses 1.0 to 1.13

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
12/6 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Winter 2021 and 2020 still nothing alike at this point
* Flat. Expect to see cases start climbing in the next 2-3 days but how high is the question
* The next 5 days should be very telling

3/n
. ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
5 Dec
12/4 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Winter wave is still pretty "sleepy" compared to 2020
* Positivity Rate, Cases, Hospitalizations & Hosp C19 Admits all slowly rising
* What will next week bring? A surge or more sleepiness?

1/n
.
12/4 Testing

Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 11/24:
* 2020 was already in a fairly steep rise at this point
* Pos rate 6.27%
* Testing starting Thanksgiving tank
* Positive tests flat
* Covidestim Rt up to 0.82

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
12/4 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* 2020 and 2021 look nothing alike at this point
* Cases 7DMA recovering slowly from post-Thanksgiving dip to 1934
* The next 7 days should be very telling

3/n
. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
2 Dec
12/2 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Curious week. Not much of a wave yet
* Cases still affected by Thanksgiving it appears
* Positivity Rate, Hospitalizations & Hosp C19 Admits only slowing rising
* More new charts today to directly compare Winter 2021 vs 2020

1/n
.
12/2 Testing

Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 11/22:
* Pos rate slow rise to 6.01%
* Testing still flat, well see it tank over Thanksgiving
* Positive tests also flat
* Covidestim Rt still irrelevant right now at 0.62

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
12/2 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Cases 7DMA took another big post-Thanksgiving dip to only 1559 cases/day over previous 7 days
* Make some sense as you see testing in 2/n flat even before Thanksgiving
* Curious. Will watch this

3/n
. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets

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