12/6 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Winter wave 2021 still bored and "sleepy" compared to 2020
* At this point, Thanksgiving should be well in the rear view mirror so what's the reason?
* Positivity Rate, Cases, Hospitalizations & Hosp C19 Admits all slowly rising

1/n
.
12/6 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 11/26:
* Pos rate is the only reason we know for certain there is a wave
* Pos rate 6.49%
* Thanksgiving tanking of both tests & positives
* Covidestim Rt crosses 1.0 to 1.13

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
12/6 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Winter 2021 and 2020 still nothing alike at this point
* Flat. Expect to see cases start climbing in the next 2-3 days but how high is the question
* The next 5 days should be very telling

3/n
. ImageImageImage
12/6 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* Both Admits & Census in a much shallower climb than 2020. Very curious
* Covid Admits - 416 7DMA
* % of beds tagged as Covid creeps up to 4.9.%
* Covid census also up to 2971 beds
* 7DMA rates of growth < 10%

covid-texas.csullender.com
.
4/n
. ImageImageImageImage
12/6 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* ICU portion of the bed census declines to 913. Hanging under 1000 for a full month now
* 2020 leaving 2021 in the dust across the board right now. Could change, obviously.

5/n
. ImageImageImage
12/6 Conclusion

* Wave is weak, bored and sleepy.
* Been waiting for that to change for a week now, but so far, its not
* Next 5 days should tell us what type of wave this will be
* Signs point to a smaller wave than 2020, but still TBD

6/end

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More from @therealarod1984

5 Dec
12/4 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Winter wave is still pretty "sleepy" compared to 2020
* Positivity Rate, Cases, Hospitalizations & Hosp C19 Admits all slowly rising
* What will next week bring? A surge or more sleepiness?

1/n
.
12/4 Testing

Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 11/24:
* 2020 was already in a fairly steep rise at this point
* Pos rate 6.27%
* Testing starting Thanksgiving tank
* Positive tests flat
* Covidestim Rt up to 0.82

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
12/4 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* 2020 and 2021 look nothing alike at this point
* Cases 7DMA recovering slowly from post-Thanksgiving dip to 1934
* The next 7 days should be very telling

3/n
. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
2 Dec
12/2 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Curious week. Not much of a wave yet
* Cases still affected by Thanksgiving it appears
* Positivity Rate, Hospitalizations & Hosp C19 Admits only slowing rising
* More new charts today to directly compare Winter 2021 vs 2020

1/n
.
12/2 Testing

Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 11/22:
* Pos rate slow rise to 6.01%
* Testing still flat, well see it tank over Thanksgiving
* Positive tests also flat
* Covidestim Rt still irrelevant right now at 0.62

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
12/2 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Cases 7DMA took another big post-Thanksgiving dip to only 1559 cases/day over previous 7 days
* Make some sense as you see testing in 2/n flat even before Thanksgiving
* Curious. Will watch this

3/n
. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
22 Nov
11/22 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Thanksgiving week will suppress the published numbers this week
* The number to watch will be positivity rate which is in a slow climb
* Winter wave is here but will be hard to know extent until ~Dec 1

1/n
.
11/22 Testing

Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete.

As of 11/12:
* Pos rate rising to 4.70%
* Testing & positives are flat. Interesting to see if testing surges between 11/13-11/18, before the break
* Covidestim Rt down to 0.65

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
11/22 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Cases 7DMA almost flat at 2697. Cases will be lower than actual due to the holiday. People don't go to the doctor over the break
* Look at dips in charts, it happens at every major holiday

3/n
. ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
19 Nov
11/19 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* The Start of the Winter wave is here
* All the metrics are showing small increases
* Banking on the vaccines being effective and reducing the amplitude of the wave is looking increasingly like a pipe dream.

1/n
.
11/19 Testing

Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete.

As of 11/09:
* Positivity rate rising to 4.47%
* Testing increasing 7DMA ~ 83.8K
* Positive Test 7DMA ~ 3748
* Covidestim Rt creeping up to 0.74

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
11/19 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Cases 7DMA is slowly increasing
* 7DMA of 2796 cases, rising 20% week over week
* Will start watching the amplitude of the wave.
* Probably will adjust my charting to compare Winters directly

3/n
. ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
16 Nov
OSHA Mandate going to the Sixth Circuit is good news it appears.

11 GOP judges and 5 Dems in active service, senior judges are 10-3 GOP. All the activity I'm seeing on the Twitter verse from both sides say this court is pretty red.
.
6th Circuit covers Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, and Michigan FYI
"The Sixth Circuit is a favorable draw for mandate challengers, one of the best they could have hoped for...many Trump-appointed judges skeptical of broad assertions of agency authority..." said Sean Marotta, a lawyer at Hogan Lovells who follows multi-circuit issues closely.
Read 4 tweets
16 Nov
The 1) lawsuit and 2) preliminary injunction filed by 12 states in W. Louisiana yesterday against CMS - the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services

RE: Biden administration’s overreaching COVID-19 vaccine mandate for healthcare workers

THREAD 1/n

dojmt.gov/attorney-gener…
What is striking about this motion for preliminary injunction (basically a Stay), is how much of the language of the 5th Circuit's Stay vs OSHA is quoted.

Also I didn't realize CMS was attempting to use the Social Security Act as the legal justification for this Mandate.

2/n
.
Overview of reasons why a STAY must be granted:

* At odds with the SSA
* Exceeds CMS's statutory authority
* Violates the SSA's prohibition on control of healthcare workers
* Violates the
** Spending Clause
** Anti-Commandeering Doctrine
** 10th Amendment

3/n
Read 18 tweets

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