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11 Dec, 6 tweets, 5 min read
12/10 Texas C19 Update: Paper Tiger

THREAD:

* Its all in the northern part of the state, the south still flat
* Yawn
* Is this a sign of widespread enough immunity?
* 2020 is wiping the floor with 2021
* Late wave or small wave? TBD

1/n
12/10 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 11/30:
* Pos rate slowly climbing to 7.22%
* Tests & Positives recovering from Thanksgiving
* Upcoming incomplete days for pos% look super flat
* Covidestim Rt 1.05

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
12/10 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Winter 2021 and 2020: No comparison
* Will the southern part of the state see spread? So far the answer is no. But still early. Kinda.

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
12/10 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* Both Winter 2021 Admits & Census = no comparison yet to Winter 2020
* Covid Admits - 432 7DMA
* % of beds tagged as Covid still at 4.9%
* Covid census up to 3114 beds
* 7DMA rates of growth remain below < 10%

covid-texas.csullender.com
.
4/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
12/10 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* ICU portion of the bed census at 963.
* So far this wave is a bag o nothing. Obviously still could change.

5/n
 . ImageImageImage
12/10 Conclusion

* Remember, the is day #s in the wave comparison, not calendar dates, when comparing 2021 to 2020.
* 2021 Winter Wave is not a wave yet. Maybe it will be.
* Or maybe there is just a ton of immunity out there now, and its not coming. We shall see.

6/end

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More from @therealarod1984

therealarod1984 Profile picture
13 Dec
12/12 Texas Regional Hospital Analysis

THREAD

As mentioned in the Covid update this morning, I'll present some hospital numbers broken down by TSA Region...

Summary: Most of the spread is confined to the northern and western parts of the state

1/n
Census & Rates of growth for Panhandle and Far West TX.

AMA is ahead of LBB. ELP is ahead of MAF. 1 of 2 things happening:

1) Spread is moving South & East. Or
2) AMA & ELP both saw much smaller Summer 2021 waves than LBB & MAF. An immunity question opposed to geography

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
Looking at the Big Metros on the East and South sides, there is little growth right now. DFW & SAT generally single digit growth, AUS showing some in recent days, HOU still negative growth.

These cities are the big drivers of hosp numbers so we will need to be watchin

3/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
13 Dec
12/12 Texas C19 Update: Still Waiting

THREAD:

* Moderate spread in the North, still virtually none in the Southern part of the state
* Widespread immunity?
* Winter 2021 vs 2020 are barely comparable
* Same story, different day

1/n
12/12 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/2:
* Positivity rate flat at 7.21%
* Testing recovered to 85K per day, looks to be climbing
* Should mean more positives and cases in upcoming days
* Covidestim Rt 1.15

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
12/12 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Winter 2021 starting a slow climb. Should be an increasing number of cases out there
* 2020 Winter wave was about to really explode at this point, two days from now. Will 2021? TBD but likely no.

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
6 Dec
12/6 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Winter wave 2021 still bored and "sleepy" compared to 2020
* At this point, Thanksgiving should be well in the rear view mirror so what's the reason?
* Positivity Rate, Cases, Hospitalizations & Hosp C19 Admits all slowly rising

1/n
 .
12/6 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 11/26:
* Pos rate is the only reason we know for certain there is a wave
* Pos rate 6.49%
* Thanksgiving tanking of both tests & positives
* Covidestim Rt crosses 1.0 to 1.13

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
12/6 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Winter 2021 and 2020 still nothing alike at this point
* Flat. Expect to see cases start climbing in the next 2-3 days but how high is the question
* The next 5 days should be very telling

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
5 Dec
12/4 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Winter wave is still pretty "sleepy" compared to 2020
* Positivity Rate, Cases, Hospitalizations & Hosp C19 Admits all slowly rising
* What will next week bring? A surge or more sleepiness?

1/n
 .
12/4 Testing

Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 11/24:
* 2020 was already in a fairly steep rise at this point
* Pos rate 6.27%
* Testing starting Thanksgiving tank
* Positive tests flat
* Covidestim Rt up to 0.82

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
12/4 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* 2020 and 2021 look nothing alike at this point
* Cases 7DMA recovering slowly from post-Thanksgiving dip to 1934
* The next 7 days should be very telling

3/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
2 Dec
12/2 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Curious week. Not much of a wave yet
* Cases still affected by Thanksgiving it appears
* Positivity Rate, Hospitalizations & Hosp C19 Admits only slowing rising
* More new charts today to directly compare Winter 2021 vs 2020

1/n
 .
12/2 Testing

Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete

As of 11/22:
* Pos rate slow rise to 6.01%
* Testing still flat, well see it tank over Thanksgiving
* Positive tests also flat
* Covidestim Rt still irrelevant right now at 0.62

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
12/2 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Cases 7DMA took another big post-Thanksgiving dip to only 1559 cases/day over previous 7 days
* Make some sense as you see testing in 2/n flat even before Thanksgiving
* Curious. Will watch this

3/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
22 Nov
11/22 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Thanksgiving week will suppress the published numbers this week
* The number to watch will be positivity rate which is in a slow climb
* Winter wave is here but will be hard to know extent until ~Dec 1

1/n
 .
11/22 Testing

Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete.

As of 11/12:
* Pos rate rising to 4.70%
* Testing & positives are flat. Interesting to see if testing surges between 11/13-11/18, before the break
* Covidestim Rt down to 0.65

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
11/22 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Cases 7DMA almost flat at 2697. Cases will be lower than actual due to the holiday. People don't go to the doctor over the break
* Look at dips in charts, it happens at every major holiday

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets

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