Remarkable that following such a massive shock, federal debt services costs will average ~1.2 percent of GDP for 2021-2026. Budget 2019, prior to COVID, was projecting debt services costs of 1.2 percent from 2021 onwards.
Those claiming the fiscal sky will soon fall due to this federal borrowing are ... mistaken
Simple illustration: If beyond 2026 we have interest rates ~3 percent & NGDP growth ~4 & revenue/GDP is stable & real per capita spending is stable --> debt/GDP gets to pre-COVID levels by 2034. Far sooner than previous projections.
If spending/GDP is stable, then it's 2038.
This might not appear to be a significant improvement. But picture where we were back in 2020. I offered some analysis that to get back to pre-COVID debt levels by mid-2030, we'd need an extra two points on the GST. macleans.ca/economy/econom…
Now we're on that track without it.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
CPI up 4.1% in August compared to last year. Highest since 2003. Excluding food/energy (which are highly volatile), prices up 3%. #cdnecon
Important to remember, though, that much of the higher inflation we've seen in recent months is in part due to drops during COVID and prices returning to trend today means above-average inflation since last year's levels are lower.
Here's an illustration of that.
Also important to remember that the central bank looks to several measures to understand inflation pressures. Here are three of their main metrics. One exceeds the target range, the two others still don't.
In total, Canada is now up to 28.2 million shots given -- which is 89.9% of the total 31.4 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 2,546,940 doses have been delivered to provinces.
And so far 4.0 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.
The latest estimates of vaccinations by age:
- Those 60+: 89.8% have at least one dose and 26.5% have two
- 18-59: it's 68.7% and 8.7%
- Adults: 75.1% and 14.1%
Note: data comes with a 6-13 day lag; these are my own estimates
- Those 60+: 89.4% have at least one dose and 21.0% have two
- 18-59: it's 67.0% and 9.0%
- Adults: 73.8% and 12.7%
Note: data comes with a 6-13 day lag; these are my own estimates
In total, Canada is now up to 27.7 million shots given -- which is 90.4% of the total 30.7 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 1,925,050 doses have been delivered to provinces.
And so far 3.7 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.
- Those 60+: 89.4% have at least one dose and 19.4% have two
- 18-59: it's 66.6% and 8.3%
- Adults: 73.6% and 11.7%
Note: data comes with a 6-13 day lag; these are my own estimates
In total, Canada is now up to 27.3 million shots given -- which is 90.0% of the total 30.3 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 2,141,010 doses have been delivered to provinces.
And so far 3.4 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.