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Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
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16 Dec, 4 tweets, 3 min read
1. In the Cuban Missile Crisis, after JFK let Nikita Khrushchev know he'd risk nuclear war, the Soviets backed down. We didn't formally agree to pull our missiles out of Turkey but did informally. I don't think #Putin can politically be seen to have gotten nothing re Ukraine.
2. We keep talking about #Donbas and the return to #Minsk Accord's #NormandyFormat that would leave an semi-autonomous region but return border control to #Ukraine. Nobody in our camp appears to be considering any compromise on #Crimea. I think the chip might be #Sevastopol.
3. Perhaps a deal that provides cheap energy to Ukraine for a time that is tied to continued use of Sevastopol by Black Sea Fleet under the terms of a new lease. Give both sides a benefit and and incentive to move on. And everyone can call it a win. @WHNSC @SecBlinken @SecDef
4. But the Ukrainian flag flies over the rest of Crimea and then the water can be turned back on.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
17 Dec
1. All of this is consistent with my analysis that, since at least February, there has been a large counterintelligence investigation to determine whether foreign actors have played roles in our elections and in the Jan 6 attack. We are three FISA orders in out of possible four.
2. IMO the Gang of Eight may have finally been notified of members of Congress who have been identified as national security targets. Was Nunes given an offer he can't refuse and resigned? McConnel is now indicating that something big is coming. I'm watching Rubio and McCarthy.
3. Yesterday Rubio stopped his absurd block on Biden's ambassador to China. I have not done a deep dive, but Kevin McCarthy seems to be MIA. I still think that there is a high likelihood that Putin's recent activities directed at Ukraine are a response to this investigation.
Read 4 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
16 Dec
The Senate is finally voting to confirm @RNicholasBurns as US Ambassador to China.
Several GOP have voted yes so I presume it will pass. Now at 21 to 4.
He's at 59 to 15 so he's going to be confirmed.
Read 4 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
16 Dec
Senator @amyklobuchar is on floor applauding the work of @Sen_JoeManchin and others for Senator Klobuchar's Freedom to Vote Act. Because Senate has recently ended filibuster for other legislation I think it will be a heavy lift for member of the @SenateDems to not pass it.
Senator @amykobochard is now addressing the filibuster going through the history and how it has changed, noting they just did it for debt limit. This takes away Manchin & Sinema's claim that it's sacred IMO. I don't think she would be addressing this just to put them on the spot.
She's concluding by saying "we should not go home tomorrow." Head of the rules committee saying don't go on holiday recess is a big deal. Now @lisamurkowski is up first commenting on the right to vote. She's in cycle in 2022. Says it's worthy of debate but also says they need to
Read 4 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
16 Dec
1. Here is @SenSchumer on the floor today addressing the GQP blocking of @JoeBiden's nominees that he says will require he keeps the Senate working. Not clear if he's saying he won't move to recess for Christmas.
Watching Senate Session @CSPAN c-span.org/video/?516796-…
2. Also says he believes we will pass voting rights before 2022 midterms.
3. I think @marcorubio just withdrew his block on three Ambassadors who will be voted on later today. Includes China nominee Nicholas Burns.
Read 9 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
14 Dec
Does anyone know if the Senate has actually changed the filibuster rule for the debt ceiling. @ReverendWarnock on the floor is making the case to force change for voting rights. I wonder if he will vote no.
"What would Dr. King do?" I think I know. He'd shut it all down. That's why they killed him.
Just like @Sen_JoeManchin has to satisfy his White base, Warnock has to satisfy and motivate his Black base. If he doesn't vote for it then a @SenateGOP member will have to vote for it.
Read 4 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
14 Dec
1. This is why I wanted to find the data on the judges. Contreras is the presiding FISC judge. I would think he'd sit-out the active cases. Now that he's engaged in Jan 6 cases, this might indicate that that phase of the DOJ investigation is finished.
2. I surmise that the first Title I FISA order re TFG and would issue in February. So three of a maximum of four finished by end of November. With the attack still ongoing they may not have the luxury of seeking a fourth and have transitioned from FISA Title I to
3. regular investigative tools under Title III of the Omnibus Crime Control Act. So those wire taps and search warrant applications might refer to the FISA orders but that part of the applications remain redacted and is seldom if ever disclosed in the criminal proceedings.
Read 5 tweets

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