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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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19 Dec, 15 tweets, 10 min read
New York #COVID19 record cases—deaths are quickly rising too. Broadway shows are cancelling abruptly again. I’m cancelling trips myself. The #Omicron wave will hit hospitals hard—pray for doctors, nurses & respiratory therapists over the holidays. #MaskUp #GetBoosted Stay safe 🙏
2) Just in - @CNN will be closing its US offices to most workers ASAP due to rising cases. I remember when CNN last did this suddenly in spring 2020 as NYC got hit real bad. This is very deja vu.
reuters.com/world/us/cnn-c…
3) I’m switching from regular KN95 to N95 now in indoor places with other people— #Omicron is so contagious. Make sure your kids use a minimum KN95 or KF94 or FFP2 mask. I’ve been warning about this for over a year. But I’m upgrading to N95 now— see @projectn95 (no commission).
4) I have a really foreboding feeling again. For those who have followed me since Jan 2020, many of you know the difference when I’m cautiously worried and when I’m foreboding worried. I’m now at the latter again.
nymag.com/intelligencer/…
5) In spring 2020, @cyrushabib (when he was Lt Governor of Washington state) and I were writing a proposal for a national N95 govt mass production and distribution program — @ASlavitt did too. But I thought someday it will eventually roll it out—It’s sad it hasn’t yet—we need it!
6) My sources say that folks inside the CDC are whispering that #Omicron is now **as contagious or more contagious than MEASLES**. We epidemiologists have been muttering it for a week. I haven’t heard any CDC or govt official admit on 📺 yet. They should —people need to hear it.
7) based on the rate of Danish #Omicron vs Delta - @JPWeiland (and many others) have modeled Omicron to be anywhere from 4x to 6x more transmission advantage over Delta. Delta meanwhile has 2x R advantage over old Wuhan. Wuhan had an R0 of 3-4. Omicron is worrisome.
8) Let this sink in— worldwide cumulative #Omicron spiked up ⬆️ 31% in just **one day**. You can try to delude yourself that a slightly “milder” virus won’t kill many people — but only if you lie to yourself about how exponential math works.
9) Short lesson how exponential #Omicron math will work— even if we hypothetically set it extreme at 1/10th as lethal—but just merely 2x more contagious (ignoring it’s likely 4-6x)… you will ultimately have way more deaths even if 90% milder but more contagious—EXPONENTIAL MATH!
10) And it’s doubtful if that much milder, if at all. A 🇬🇧 study found no significant difference in severity for #Omicron vs Delta (odds ratio of 0.95). And the OR excluded anything remotely close to 1/10th the risk. “Milder” is not big driver versus exponential contagiousness!⚠️
11) "Some of my infectious disease colleagues say [#Omicron] appears to be as transmissible as diseases like measles" says Dr. David Reich of Mount Sinai Hospital— this buttresses what I’ve been saying and what I’m hearing from sources within govt.
12) Yes, this is what “as infectious as measles” would mean for #Omicron.
13) The only way a virus can be this damn contagious like #Omicron is if it’s highly airborne for rapid transmission. This is a good thread 🧵 below of what that means 👇— please ventilate and disinfect the air and wear PREMIUM masks. No more cloth please.
14) New York hospitals now no longer providing Monoclonal antibody therapies for #Omicron hospital cases— because several studies now show they don’t work against the new Omicron variant anymore. This is why I worry we are having a major reset moment in this pandemic.
15) here is the ominous announcement from @MountSinaiNYC hospital system suspending 2 monoclonal antibody drugs due to lack of efficacy against #Omicron. Many R state leaders rely and tout MABs drugs as a COVID strategy.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
20 Dec
📍HIGHER HOSPITALIZATION & DEATHS VS FIRST WAVE—Comparing #Omicron in South Africa🇿🇦 epicenter versus its first wave in 2020 (~Wuhan 1.0 strain), we see Omicron has higher hospitalizations, similar ICU rate, and higher #COVID19 deaths than the 1st wave. 🧵
ceri.africa/publications/ ImageImage
2) This data is from directly South Africa’s CDC equivalent @nicd_sa. HT @SteveMillerOC
3) as for the change in daily hospitalization- Omicron was ahead of first wave but slowing a bit but still ahead of first wave. Image
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
20 Dec
📍SUSPENDING Monoclonal Antibody Drugs—as of today, New York City’s major @MountSinaiNYC hospital system has now formally stopped offering 2 key MAB drugs against #Omicron due to lack of effects in new studies. ➡️What happens when we let #COVID19 run rampant. HT @dianaberrent ImageImage
2) I share @dianaberrent’s concern that this is a huge reset on pandemic control given how many people in many states rely on this against COVID — especially among many who are vaccine hesitant. MABs are often touted by R governors as an alternative to vaccines.
3) Here is the specific study that points to lack of neutralization of #Omicron with several major monoclonal antibody drugs. “Undetectable”
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
19 Dec
📍DOMINANT IN 2 WEEKS—to overtake Delta, all it took was half a month for spiking #Omicron cases (via SGTF proxy test) to surge from <1% on Dec 1st to 50.8% of all #COVID19 in Washington state on Dec 14th (from @UWVirology). Likely same worldwide!

HT @AliHMokdad of @IHME_UW Image
2) Let this sink in—worldwide cumulative #Omicron spiked up ⬆️ 31% in just **one day**. You can try to delude yourself that a slightly “milder” virus won’t kill many people — but only if you lie to yourself about how exponential math works.
3) Mini lesson how exponential #Omicron math works—even if we hypothetically set Omicron extreme at 1/10th as lethal—but just merely 2x more contagious (ignoring it’s likely 4-6x)—you will ultimately have way more deaths even if 90% milder but more contagious—EXPONENTIAL MATH!👀
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
17 Dec
⚠️BREAKING—Imperial College study finds #Omicron could be **just as severe** as the Delta strain, according to early findings from researchers at Imperial College London.

➡️All those who said “it’s mild” need to think about how many they have endangered.
ft.com/content/489316… Image
2) “The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms, or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection,” said the research team, led by Prof Neil Ferguson
3) Moreover, other London hospitalization data shows it could be sending patients to hospitals a bit faster, even if same severity.
Read 11 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
17 Dec
⚠️FASTER HOSPITALIZATION WITH #Omicron—Latest data on hospital admissions in London (🇬🇧Omicron epicenter) shows Omicron wave is sending patients to hospitals sooner in 6 days than versus Delta (9-10 days). And the model suggests similar severity, not “milder”.🧵

Data via @OYCar ImageImageImage
2) Let’s look at the other 10 day model for new #Omicron — it seems it’s a poor fit to the actual hospitalization data. It’s visible on both the log scale and natural scale that it’s not a good fit. ImageImage
3) Now let’s for a moment test whether #Omicron is “milder” - half as severe as Delta, but just sent people to hospital faster, but not as often. Does it fit the data well? Not exactly… the latest few days doesn’t jive with that “milder” model. Image
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
17 Dec
MASKS ON AIRPLANES—It is “irresponsible & reckless” for @SouthwestAir CEO @gary_kelly & @AmericanAir CEO to question if masks needed. Airplane✈️ transmission proven, #Omicron is much more contagious, & HEPA filters not running on tarmac! Thx @JeromeAdamsMD
2) airplane spread is shown in this key video below 👇
3) and it’s not true that airplanes always have great HEPA cleaning — all the time parked at the gate - usually no HEPA filtration active @AmericanAir @SouthwestAir!!!
Read 5 tweets

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