⚠️FASTER HOSPITALIZATION WITH #Omicron—Latest data on hospital admissions in London (🇬🇧Omicron epicenter) shows Omicron wave is sending patients to hospitals sooner in 6 days than versus Delta (9-10 days). And the model suggests similar severity, not “milder”.🧵

Data via @OYCar ImageImageImage
2) Let’s look at the other 10 day model for new #Omicron — it seems it’s a poor fit to the actual hospitalization data. It’s visible on both the log scale and natural scale that it’s not a good fit. ImageImage
3) Now let’s for a moment test whether #Omicron is “milder” - half as severe as Delta, but just sent people to hospital faster, but not as often. Does it fit the data well? Not exactly… the latest few days doesn’t jive with that “milder” model. Image
4) to be clear, the above model is based on total hospitalizations. But we know from South Africa that their hospitalization surging and a bit faster than normal. And separately, most ~90% of the patients that tested positive for #COVID19 were admitted for COVID not other stuff. ImageImage
5) also check out the crazy DOUBLING TIMES for probable #Omicron (SGTF is a shortcut PCR signal for likely Omicron)— its now just **1.5 days** for doubling in many parts of England!! Image
6) SHOW MORE PROOF? Denmark 🇩🇰 hospitalization is showing similar **faster hospitalization** phenomenon — notice how hospitalizations rise much faster with #Omicron… much shorter delay to hospital admissions than Delta. 👀

Figure by @jukka235 Image
7) People keep forgetting that #DeltaVariant was found to be ~4x **more severe** than the original 2020 strain of #SARSCoV2. There’s several studies that found 3-4x. Thus anyone saying Omicron is “milder” don’t realize even if true (doubtful)— it’s back to Wuhan 1.0 if 4x milder.
8) “Omicron is just as severe as Delta” according to newest UK 🇬🇧 study…. this is consistent with the data I presented atop.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Eric Feigl-Ding

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DrEricDing

19 Dec
New York #COVID19 record cases—deaths are quickly rising too. Broadway shows are cancelling abruptly again. I’m cancelling trips myself. The #Omicron wave will hit hospitals hard—pray for doctors, nurses & respiratory therapists over the holidays. #MaskUp #GetBoosted Stay safe 🙏 ImageImageImage
2) Just in - @CNN will be closing its US offices to most workers ASAP due to rising cases. I remember when CNN last did this suddenly in spring 2020 as NYC got hit real bad. This is very deja vu.
reuters.com/world/us/cnn-c…
3) I’m switching from regular KN95 to N95 now in indoor places with other people— #Omicron is so contagious. Make sure your kids use a minimum KN95 or KF94 or FFP2 mask. I’ve been warning about this for over a year. But I’m upgrading to N95 now— see @projectn95 (no commission).
Read 10 tweets
17 Dec
⚠️BREAKING—Imperial College study finds #Omicron could be **just as severe** as the Delta strain, according to early findings from researchers at Imperial College London.

➡️All those who said “it’s mild” need to think about how many they have endangered.
ft.com/content/489316… Image
2) “The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms, or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection,” said the research team, led by Prof Neil Ferguson
3) Moreover, other London hospitalization data shows it could be sending patients to hospitals a bit faster, even if same severity.
Read 11 tweets
17 Dec
MASKS ON AIRPLANES—It is “irresponsible & reckless” for @SouthwestAir CEO @gary_kelly & @AmericanAir CEO to question if masks needed. Airplane✈️ transmission proven, #Omicron is much more contagious, & HEPA filters not running on tarmac! Thx @JeromeAdamsMD
2) airplane spread is shown in this key video below 👇
3) and it’s not true that airplanes always have great HEPA cleaning — all the time parked at the gate - usually no HEPA filtration active @AmericanAir @SouthwestAir!!!
Read 5 tweets
16 Dec
The #Omicron variant is surging in the US exponentially… CDC data shows that New York / New Jersey region is now over 10% Omicron of all #COVID19 cases. The rest of US is not far behind—likely dominant by Christmas 🎄 — please be careful during holidays.

Figure by @DrWilliamKu.
2) I’m glad that NYC will be distributing free COVID tests and KN95 masks. Thank you @NYCHealthCommr @davechokshi!
3) NYC positivity has doubled in just 2 days. That’s bad bad bad.
Read 5 tweets
15 Dec
📍The coronavirus is airborne. Very airborne. Even if you don’t see anyone—doesn’t mean the aerosols aren’t in the air. WATCH📺

➡️ you need high quality N95 / KN95 / KF94 / FFP2/ FFP3 masks.

➡️ also please ventilate, get HEPA filters, get upper room UV.
2) VENTILATION is key. Both ventilation and masks needed to reduce risk indoors. But most buildings not ventilated well enough.

3) AEROSOLS ARE AIRBORNE.

“Until we recognise that #COVID19 is airborne we are setting ourselves up for repeated failure”
Read 9 tweets
15 Dec
💡New VACCINE RANKING of ability to neutralize #Omicron—Moderna appears to be the strongest against Omicron in this study, but still big drop. Pfizer next best (but we know infection efficacy is 30-34%), AstraZeneca & Sinopharm poor. J&J & Sputnik = zero.🧵biorxiv.org/content/10.110… Image
2) Natural infection immunity is on the left … “convalescent” = practically no neutralization against #Omicron in this study by itself without vaccine. Image
3) Meanwhile for SinoVac —one of the world’s most widely used vaccines, doesn’t provide sufficient antibodies to neutralize the #omicron variant, said 🇭🇰 researchers. But a 3rd shot booster seemed up help. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 13 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(