Thread by @therealarod1984

12/19 Texas C19 Update: Casedemic

THREAD:

* Cases finally coming in after lagging way behind positive tests
* SE Texas is showing some spread, while W Texas is post peak
* Statewide testing and hospitalizations still flat as can be
* "Winter Wave 2021" is still a misnomer

1/n

https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1471580976107163649

12/19 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/9:
* Pos rate @ 7.42%
* With Testing flat @ 90K/day, means Positives are flat
* But historically low conversion of positives to cases means lots of cases out there

2/n
.

12/19 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Winter 2021 cases finally showing up, but until positives jump, cases will likely flatten.
* While cases are rising, hospitalizations are flat as a pancake as the next 2 slides will show

3/n
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12/19 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* Admits 7DMA flat @ 421 & nothing like Winter 2020
* Hospital census 7DMA rate of growth is 1.7%
* Far West TX & Panhandle census are declining. Houston & SE TX starting to rise
* % of beds tagged as Covid flat at 4.9%, census at 3054

4/n
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12/19 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* ICU portion of the bed census at 946. 6 weeks below 1000
* 2021 Winter wave vs 2020's is no comparison
* Added in the old hospital rate of growth chart here, as you can see, its 1.7% right now.

5/n
.

12/19 Conclusion

* Reminder - the 20 vs 21 charts have "Day #" on the X axis, not dates, & start dates are in the chart titles
* Houston can drive state numbers by itself, but for now its being offset by declines in the West. Dallas flattening as well
* Will keep watching

6/end