1/ Q: Is it true that #Omicron is less severe than previous variants?

A: We HOPE so, but we don’t know yet. The evidence so far is mixed.

dearpandemic.org/is-omicron-les…
2/ We are WAY past due for some good variant news. But pinning our #Omicron hopes on a less virulent variant is not wise for 2 reasons:

1) It might not be less severe in those who are “immune naïve” (neither vaccinated nor with a previous infection—still millions of people).
3/ 2) Many more infections *even* if less severe can still lead to an avalanche of hospitalizations and deaths, and the risk of long Covid.

@AdamJKucharski raised this last December w/ the rise of Alpha:
4/ The rumors about Omicron were flying fast and furious even before it was granted its Marvel-character-sounding Greek letter.

“It spreads faster.” “The vaccines don’t work for it.” “It’s less virulent.”

Data is finally starting to come in to put these rumors to the test.
5/ Transmissibility:

Omicron is spreading faster than Delta, meaning it has a “growth advantage.” We don’t know yet how much is due to Omicron being inherently more transmissible v. better at infecting people w/ prior immunity (probably a bit of both).
6/ Vaccine efficacy

So far numerous lab-based neutralization studies + some real-world data suggest Omicron is better at evading antibodies generated from 2 doses of vaccines or previous infection, but 3 doses hold up well. Get boosted!

theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…

#Moderna
8/ Virulence:

A mixed bag so far. Early data from South Africa was largely anecdotal—Doctors reported seeing Omicron cases as mild. As more data have come in, hospitalizations in South Africa still look lower for Omicron compared to previous waves.
9/ Even if this holds up, decreased severity in South Africa could be a result of higher levels of population immunity (from natural infection + vaccination) compared to previous waves rather than any intrinsic characteristic of Omicron.

npr.org/sections/goats…?
10/ South Africa has already been hit *extremely* hard by previous waves of COVID-19, with excess mortality estimated at 230,000 deaths out of a population of 59 million, meaning much worse per capita than even poor performers like the U.S, U.K. and Brazil.
11/ If Omicron infects more people who have some level of previous immunity, it will look less severe overall even if the severity hasn’t changed for people who are “immune naïve,” as nicely illustrated by @roby_bhatt & @BillHanage

12/ South Africa is also a much younger country compared to Europe or North America. This all means that we can’t generalize too much from the experience of one country, as the impact on countries with different infection+ vaccination+ age patterns could be different.
#poptwitter
13/ 2 recent studies in lab culture showed Omicron may be less efficient at replicating in lung tissue compared to the upper respiratory track. Many scientists were quick to urge caution interpreting implications:
16/ Recent data from the UK shows “no signal” of lesser severity for Omicron. This is concerning but still based on small numbers given the lag time needed to identify hospitalizations and the newness of the variant.
17/ Hospitalizations in London, which has seen the earliest Omicron spike, are up sharply, perhaps a forecast of what is to come.
18/ A more transmissible variant, even if it is less severe can still lead to the same # of hospitalizations in a short time. So, while this trade-off might be good in the long-term, it’s still very dangerous in the short term w/ so many unvaccinated. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
19/ Great summary of current Omicron studies by @GretchenVogel1 & @kakape:

science.org/content/articl…
20/ ➡️ BOTTOM LINE:

We REALLY HOPE Omicron causes less severe disease. But we don’t yet know.

And “hope is not a strategy.”
21/ By the time we have good evidence of Omicron’s severity, it will be too late to react.

We should all take precautions now to limit spread and boost our immunity through vaccination.

#ExponentialGrowthSucks
22/ Countries with high vaccination rates like the UK saw much lower hospitalization and death rates with Delta compared to previous waves, so we know this can be done.
23/ Whether Delta or Omicron, lower severity doesn’t necessarily mean the virus is weaker, but that WE (through immunity) are stronger. #BoostUp #WeCanDoThis

25/ How could we have forgotten legend @nataliexdean's sketch & explanation of the challenges in measuring severity? 👏👏

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More from @DearPandemic

16 Dec
1/ Nerdy Girl @drjenndowd (🇺🇸 in 🇬🇧 ) writing from not-so-sunny England, home of the strangest shaped epidemic curve ever seen.

"Buckle up America."

dearpandemic.org/buckle-up-amer…
2/ And by buckle up, I mean BOOST-UP. And take other sensible precautions, especially leading up to the holidays. Things are not looking so good.
3/ Omicron has a significant foothold here, currently estimated at over 30% of current cases in the UK and doubling every 2-3 days 😳. In London where Omicron is a whopping 60+% of the cases, Omicron cases are adding to, but not displacing Delta…yet .
Read 24 tweets
16 Apr
1/ Q: Do we know more about whether the vaccines reduce transmission?

A: YES! Evidence continues to mount that the vaccines DO in fact reduce transmission.

#vaccineswork
dearpandemic.org/do-vaccines-re…
2/ ➡️ While the Nerdy Girls are still dreaming of transmission being tested in the clinical trials (call us☎️), the data pouring in from around the world strongly suggests that the vaccines are very good (but not perfect) at reducing ALL infections & by extension transmission.
3/ Recall the clinical trials (largely) tested only participants who developed symptoms. One possibility is that vaccines reduce the severity of COVID-19 to the point of no symptoms, but still allow the virus to replicate in the nose and throat & potentially be spread to others.
Read 20 tweets
13 Apr
1/ Breaking news: Federal officials hit the pause button on #JohnsonandJohnson vaccine.

Giving themselves runway to perform all appropriate due diligence, the @US_FDA & @CDCgov have called for a temporary pause in the use of the #JandJ vaccine. Image
2/ Their diligence will analyze the cases of 6 U.S. women who developed very rare blood clots after receiving the J&J vaccine. Nearly seven million people have received this vaccine to-date in the U.S.
3/ Clinical notes:

All 6 events happened in women ages 18-48. All happened within three weeks post-vaccination. The pause is specific to the #JohnsonandJohnson vaccine, & not the #Pfizer & #Moderna vaccines.
Read 8 tweets
7 Apr
1/ A: “Great trend, but terrible levels.”

That’s the TL;DR from well-respected labor economist @aaronsojourner in response to last week’s release of the March 2021 jobs report.

dearpandemic.org/update-on-job-…
2/ 👍The good news: The numbers roundly beat Dow Jones expectations. (Expectations: 675k added jobs; Actuals: over 900k added jobs). Yay! cnb.cx/2R877KY

👎The less good news: The economy was still approx. 10 million jobs below pre-pandemic trend.
3/ The President’s Council of Economic Advisers (@WhiteHouseCEA) estimates that we could be back to pre-pandemic employment by the end of this year if this faster pace of job growth continues.
bit.ly/321u30x
Read 4 tweets
6 Apr
1/ 💥It's been a minute since we launched on Twitter as the 3rd channel in the @DearPandemic line up.

Actually, it's been a year!

➡️We'd love to boost our year-old signal here with some new follows.

dearpandemic.org/the-nerdy-girl…
2/ The pitch: We're a bunch of Nerdy girls posting real info on the pandemic. We curate COVID-19 content and battle disinfo for the greater good. We love facts.

@HelenBranswell @bhrenton @angie_rasmussen @emilynussbaum @CherylStrayed @BrendanNyhan @MSF_USA @ashishkjha @SaadOmer3
3/ Read more about our story & our committment to #womeninscience & #scicomm in @NatGeo here:

nationalgeographic.com/science/articl…?
Read 9 tweets

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