Thread by @therealarod1984

12/21 Texas C19 Update: On the Case

THREAD:

* Testing showing signs of growth
* Cases finally climbing pretty fast as expected
* Case growth will taper soon but continue steadily
* Hospitalizations still flat as can be
* "Winter Wave 2021" right now is a casedemic

1/n

https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1472709318965399558

12/21 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/11:
* Pos rate @ 7.57%
* Testing was still < 90K/day, but coming days will show growth, as will pos rate
* Conversion of positives to cases finally increasing, hence the cases

2/n
.

12/21 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Winter 2021 cases playing a ton of catch up with positive tests, growth will slow soon
* Vs Winter 2020, while its catching up to the 7DMA, obviously a ton more cases to start the 2020 Winter wave

3/n
.

12/21 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* Admits 7DMA slow rise to 434, indicating some rise coming for Hospital census 7DMA, which is DECLINE is 0.6%
* West TX census declines are still offsetting rises in Houston & SE TX
* % of beds tagged as Covid flat at 5.1%, census at 3156

4/n
.

12/21 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* ICU portion of the bed census at 987. 6+ weeks below 1000
* 2021 Winter wave vs 2020's is still no comparison
* Until we see a sharp rise in hospitalizations, this wave is strictly a casedemic and nothing compared to Winter 2020.

5/n
.

12/21 Conclusion

* Reminder - the 20 vs 21 charts have "Day #" on the X axis, & start dates are in the chart titles
* Will be interesting to see if West TX truly has finished its wave, and the size of SE Texas rise
* This "wave" is super late and all case driven right now

6/end