FINALLY, real data on Omicron's severity – from So. Africa & Australia, summarized in threads from @jburnmurdoch & @andrewlilley_au:
Bottom line from these preliminary studies: looks like Omi's per case hospitalization rate ...(1/4)
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1473397605598171140
https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/status/1473098204036091912
Bottom line from these preliminary studies: looks like Omi's per case hospitalization rate ...(1/4)
... is ⬇50-70% compared w/ Delta's. But once in hospital, studies find similar risk of "severe disease" (eg, ICU admit). Impact on death rates? Too soon to say.
Findings are good news overall (equal severity would be awful), though need more data to be sure – the stakes...(2/4)
Findings are good news overall (equal severity would be awful), though need more data to be sure – the stakes...(2/4)
are just too high. The studies don't tell us if the lower case-hospitalization rate is due to a ⬇in the inherent virulence of Omicron, vs. the impact of immunity from vaccines or past Covid.
Your friendly reminder that we'll likely see case rates that rise by more... (3/4)
Your friendly reminder that we'll likely see case rates that rise by more... (3/4)
... than 50-70%. If they do, overall risk to avg person wouldn't be ⬇, & could be ⬆.
For me, a 50-70% ⬇in severity doesn't cross my "let 'er rip" threshold. What would? If severity was ⬇90%, maybe, tho I'd still worry about Long Covid & transmission to vulnerables).(4/End)
For me, a 50-70% ⬇in severity doesn't cross my "let 'er rip" threshold. What would? If severity was ⬇90%, maybe, tho I'd still worry about Long Covid & transmission to vulnerables).(4/End)
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