Mia Malan Profile picture
Dec 22, 2021 14 tweets 7 min read Read on X
[Thread] 1. NEW study on how sick (or not) #Omicron makes people in SA
Full study here: bit.ly/3mo2Y2c (preprint)
2. Cheryl Cohen @nicd_sa:
1. #Omicron emerged in SA when:
- 60-70% of people in SA had been previously infected (so they have natural immunity)
2. Early data suggest less severe disease during the Omicron period
3. #Omicron replaced Delta VERY fast in SA - in Gauteng, where SA's Omicron outbreak started, it replaced Delta within 2 weeks (so it spreads fast).
4. Scientists identified PCR #COVID tests of patients infected with #Omicron.

How did they know it was Omicron?
The PCR test they used looks for 3 things to tell if someone has COVID. 1 of those things = an S gene. People with Omicron normally test negative 4 an S gene.
5. What did scientists look at?
How severe #Omicron infection is.

They compared:
1. SGTF (Omicron) infections with non-SGTF (non-Omicron) infections (1 Oct - 30 Nov)
2. SGTF (Omicron, 1 Oct-30 Nov) infections with Delta infections (April - Nov)
6. Scientists looked at how likely people with #Omicron were to be sick enough to end up in hospital, and, if they were admitted, how likely they were to develop severe disease (end up in ICU, etc). They compared this likelihood to that of non-Omicron and Delta patients.
7. Where did scientists get the test and clinical (how sick they got) data of patients?

From:
1. Real-time COVID case data reported to the NICD
2. Labs (COVID test results + genome data)
2. The DATCOV-Gen network, that links genome data to clinical and hospitalisation data.
8. What were the results?
SGTF (#Omicron) infections vs. non-SGTF (non-Omicron) infections (1 Oct - 30 Nov):
1. Omicron infections = 80% less likely to be admitted to hospital than non-Omicron
2. But Omicron = same chance as non-Omicron patients to fall very ill once in hospital
9. SGTF (Omicron, 1 Oct-30 Nov) infections with Delta infections (April - Nov):
Omicron infections = 70% less likely than Delta infections to develop severe disease (once admitted to hospital)
10. Scientists also looked at something called Ct values. They tell you how much virus you've got in your body. The lower the Ct value the more virus you've got (and more infectious you're likely to be).
11. Scientists found the Ct values of #Omicron (SGTF) infections = lower than those of non-Omicron (non-SGTF) infections. So the viral loads of people with Omicron = likely higher than those infected with other variants, which is probs why Omicron is so much more transmissible.
12. Study limitation:
- Only self-reported vaccination data was available for study participants; many many have had previous undiagnosed infection (so researchers couldn't account for this)
13. The study results are for SA, so a country with high levels of previous infection and relatively low levels of vaccination. Omicron could behave very differently in countries with high vaccination rates and low levels of previous infection.
14. What can this study not tell us? Why #Omicron causes less severe disease in SA.
3 possible reasons:
1. High levels of natural immunity
2. Better vax coverage 4 Omicron vs. Delta wave
3. Omicron = less virulent (makes people less sick)

We need more data to know the reason.

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More from @miamalan

Jul 24
🧵1. BREAKING: The peer-reviewed results of the study of a 6-monthly jab, #lenacapavir, in which not a single of the 2134 women between 16-25 years who received the jab contracted #HIV, were released at #Aids2024.

Find the full study here:

bhekisisa.org/wp-content/upl…
Image
2. Women often find it hard to adhere to daily #oralPrEP. In the Purpose 1 trial, 91.5% of women returned on time for their next #lenacapavir jab at 26 weeks and 92.8% at week 52. Image
3. Only 4 women out of 2134 (0.2%) who received #lenacapavir dropped out of the trial because of injection-site reactions. Image
Read 15 tweets
Jan 17
[Thread] 12 things to know about the the proportion of pregnant women infected with #HIV from SA’s latest antenatal HIV survey. The survey is conducted by the @nicd_sa.

(Analysis of our 95-95-95 goals in my next thread later in Jan).

1/12 Image
2. What is the antenatal #HIV survey?

1. It measures the % of HIV+ pregnant women between the ages of 15 + 49.
2. Only women using state pregnancy clinics take part.
3. The survey has been conducted each year between 1990-2015, then in 2017, 2019 +2022. Image
3. How many pregnant women between 15-49’s blood was tested for #HIV? 37 828 out of 40 542 collected samples.
- 37 7171 = Black African women
- 37 541 didn’t live with the dad of their child
- 35,635 of dads were 5 years+ older than moms (this makes them more likely to get HIV) Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 10, 2023
JUST IN [Thread]:
1.@healthza's Lesley Broomberg:
An extra #COVID19 booster jab for people of 18+ in SA will become available towards the end of JANUARY
- People of 50+ qualify for a 5th dose
- People of 18+ qualify for a 4th dose
2. Lesley Broomberg: Can you mix and match with additional boosters? Yes. You can choose whether you want a #JnJ or #Pfizer booster.
3. Lesley Broomberg:
Will teens of 12-17 qualify for boosters? Not at this stage. Why not? The #VMAC = not recommended booster doses for 12-17, based on an understanding that the protection provided by 2 #Pfizer doses = adequate, as 12-17 = @ low risk of severe #COVID19 illness
Read 5 tweets
Jan 10, 2023
[Thread] #JoePhaahla:
- Genomic surveillance Network reported the detection of the new subvariant XBB.1.5 in SA of a sample of a patient tested on 22 Dec
- Details of the patient = not known, it was a random sample taken for testing
- XBB.1.5 = also common in US
2. XBB.1.5 = common in US
#JoePhaahla:
- 97%+ of #COVID19 cases worldwide = still #Omicron
- XBB.1.5 cases = no major change in hospitalisations or deaths
- Immunity of SAs (vax and natural immunity) = still strong, so that is why we haven't seen much change in terms of hospital admissions/deaths
Read 5 tweets
Dec 13, 2022
🧵1. SA's @aspenpharma will be making 4 jabs (fill + finish) — pneumococcal, rotavirus, meningococcal, hexavalent — from 2023.

How will they finance this?
With a $30 million grant from @CEPIvaccines + @gatesfoundation.

Which APIs will Aspen use?
India's Serum Institute's
2. Why is it NB that an African company makes these jabs?

#Africa imports almost all its jabs. #COVID19 showed us this results in Africa being last in line to get vaccines during pandemics. The grant to Aspen is 1 of the 1st steps to change that.
3. What's the goal?

By 2040, the African Union wants #Africa to make 60% of the jabs the continent uses.

Why?
So that Africa is better equipped 2 respond 2 outbreaks (by developing the ability to make jabs + have technology in place to also make new jabs during pandemics).
Read 6 tweets
Dec 2, 2022
🧵1. BREAKING: @SAHPRA1 has confirmed the registration of the #HIV prevention jab, #CABLA in South Africa. On Thursday, #ViiVHealthcare issued their statement. ImageImage
2. Who can use the jab? @SAHPRA1 didn't specify restrictions for use in their statement, only that it is "a highly effective option for people at substantial risk of #HIV infection." Image
3. How does the jab work? It uses an #ARV called cabotegravir that prevents #HIV from replicating and entering someone’s cells. It’s taken every two months. Read my latest story for more. bit.ly/3ER7ejq
Read 5 tweets

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