Thread by @connolly_s

Ok today's 6994 after yesterday's 5684 does look like the start of something. I'll need another 2-3 days to get a reliable estimate where this is going and when it *should* peak... though I was wrong on the October 22nd->Nov 12th rise so 🤷‍♂️ @RiochtConor2 @RealEddieHobbs

https://twitter.com/connolly_s/status/1473316657967808513

Here's the epi-date data (which is up to yesterday, we'll need to wait for tomorrow to see the effect of today's bumper tests) The second graphs shows the kind of trend we've been tracking, a very slow and steady linear growth of about 25 cases per day on top of a base of 4000

About 2500 cases in the past three epi-date reports were moved to dates before each report's 14 day window, 244 of those cases were for the most recent report published today

I'm going to see if I can start a predictor tomorrow, assuming the bump today continues to grow. If it falls back down then it may end up being just another strange anomaly

Now here's the epi-date graph extracted from the hpsc.ie/a-z/respirator… report (and in red is the reconstruction from the 14-day reports) I think this shows where maybe 9000cases leaking from the 14 day reports have been allocated, namely weeks 47 & 48)

Here's what happens as we move from report to report, this graph compares the graph (digitized because they don't provide the data on geohive)from week 46, week 48 and week 50's reports. Basically the last two weeks are subject to significant changes as time goes on

I suspect the dip will remain (Storm Barra), Unclear if week 50 will go up much more from its current level or if today's bump in cases will end up being back-dated into week 50. Time will tell

Something odd is going on with the ILI sentinel reporting. Last Dec's wave was coincidental with a spike in ILI reporting... the current wave has nothing, Does this mean GPs reported last year Covid as an ILI but this year they are not... or is this year all asymptomatic?