Thread by @connolly_s

Ok didn't get to the computer until now. Here's the graphs, I'll try and do an analysis tomorrow as it looks too steep for now to get a reliable fit to predict with @RiochtConor2 @RealEddieHobbs

https://twitter.com/connolly_s/status/1473781949458231297

Looking at my previous prediction, this jump is faster than that so I'll need to do a full fit rather than just replay the fit from previous waves. This is either more infectious or has jump started on the back of an existing infection level

Here's the epi-date report, note that by my analysis 2203 of the positives that should be in today's report were missing from the 14 day graph (which probably means they got moved to days earlier than the 8th of Dec)

Ok here we go for sh1ts and giggles. This is what you get if a wave of 400,000 totoal infections of Omicron started off around the 19th of Dec and followed the same rate of spread as all previous waves in Ireland. If this ends up be correct all NPIs and interventions were useless

The above eyeball fit has maximum daily PCR positives on the 4th of Jan at 15000 or thereabouts. There are not enough data points to make a regression fit which one could stand over.

There is no basis to assume the same Gompertz rate constant, especially as some claim that Omicron is more infectious.

They do not publish the PCR lab test data on weekends, so there is not going to be any ability to update this before Monday. I would not be surprised if it is Wednesday before we get enough data that we could do an actual regression fit.

I also have no clue why we have been on a plateau of 4k positive tests since Nov 11th and none of this makes much sense in that context... but anyway, this might be a 400,000 wave peaking on Jan 4th if all our interventions have been useless and same infectivity as previous waves

I have another hypothesis… based on the epi-dates. Storm Barra caused a deficit in cases around the 7th. Those cases would be delayed in getting tested, but the epi-dates would not. Thus the “hole” should get filled… we’ve seen 4500 cases “escape” the 14-day window, a hole full

But that has created a knock on hole around the 12th… and probably echoing later until capacity was increased… that would create what looks like a surge in cases, but could actually just be a steady 4000 as since Nov 11th

If that’s the case then we won’t know until we see the weekly all time epi date reports in mid January… if they published the full set of epi-date daily data on geohive we could see it sooner though

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