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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
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26 Dec, 4 tweets, 4 min read
Previous thread on this meta scale #ClimateChangeNow #DesertRain #ArabianStormd event now underway in the #sahara #HornOfAfrica and #middleeast can be found here >>
Follow @Arab_Storms for eyewitness video tweets of #extremeweather, with a focus on Arabia / ME. Here’s a video taken today in #KSA #SaudiArabia
And finally, here we see rain falling in Riyadh. Question now will there be dangerous flooding in these areas in coming days?

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
27 Dec
Latest @NOAA GFS model runs show no end to the stormy weather over the Middle East within the 16 day long-range forecast window. Here we see accumulated rainfall by Jan 12th. Image
Here's a North Africa wide overnight update to 10am this morning of satellite presentation of this.
And Middle East satellite presentation today.
Read 15 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
27 Dec
This Prof. Tronvoll piece is indeed interesting, in part because Tronvoll like de Waal is more cheerleader and confidant commentator when it comes to the TPLF, and if read in that light the meaning can take on a different hue.
I tend to interpret his more sober than normal assessment of TPLF’s future fortunes (he has spent most of the year counting down to their victory), as being his way of expressing disappointment as a TPLF fanboi.
That said @BronwynBruton is right that the risk of an internal uprising against the TPLF is real if something resembling stasis ensues.

But the reality is that it isn’t. The TPLF has been attacking Afar already and by some accounts preparing another offensive in the West.
Read 15 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
27 Dec
P.S. Correction: The new TPLF claim is an attempt to change the narrative on their attack from a week ago on Abala (closest Afar town to Mekelle).

This is what the @TwitterSpace held yesterday by @meazaG_ and attended by around 500 people was about.
There were two special guests in that @twitterspace room @Afarfederalist and @Abrar577191701 both new accounts, associated with each other it seems, and associated with an Afar TPLF aligned colonel and his clan.
On Saturday 18th December, the day following the @UNHumanRights meeting in Geneva Abala was attacked. This video records eyewitness/victim testimony about what happened.
Read 10 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
26 Dec
It appears TPLF’s propagandists are now claiming that the Afar attacked themselves, or that the ENDF did (as they claimed with Galicoma), after realising, too late, that their latest attacks might prove to be a last straw for their IC enablers.
The TPLF have been attacking the Abala Mekelle road repeatedly for months as part of their @WFP @USAID truck, fuel and aid appropriation - for troop transport, supply and looting purposes - scam.
Correction:
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
26 Dec
TPLF misinfo ops are really scaling up... lots of spaces being held, new angles (Afar self-determination - Abala massacre is fake news) and it looks like they are now trying to leverage #NoMore and #KnowMore
Here was a twitter space organised tonight which had 500 attendees which is pretty amazing for a Boxing Day evening/afternoon. Hosted by @meazaG_.
What exactly is the current TPLF line on the Abala massacre? On the 21st of December @UNSpokesperson told UN news eporter @MBesheer that 20 trucks were stranded in Abala due to security issues.
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
26 Dec
This suggests that rather than actually seeking peace, the TPLF is once again pursuing their initial military strategy (from July), attacking Afar with the intention of seeking to capture the Djibouti Addis transport routes.
It is classic TPLF for this new offensive to be launched over Christmas whilst their Western enablers are all on holiday, and international media is running on skeleton crews, and therefore unlikely to report this. @BBCworldservice @AJEnglish @dwnews @AP @France24 @AFP @Reuters
Doing so - at this stage with OLA proxy forces -is however a new twist for the TPLF. Should they make any progress it seems likely that TPLF reinforcements will rejoin the effort.
Read 4 tweets

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