Thread by @tparsi

🧵Wow! A very telling interview with head of Israel's Iran directorate from April. It gives important clues as to why, 6 mo's later, the nuclear talks are stuck...

He says Biden listens to the Bibi gov, evidenced by the US "NOT RUSHING TO A NEW DEAL"

jns.org/iran-and-israe…
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2. This is important as Biden wasted several weeks before starting #IranDeal talks. Those weeks were partly spent on consulting w/ Israel, which apparently advised Biden not to "rush to a deal." Biden obliged by wasting time.

Today, Biden says "time is running out" for talks >>

3. Once again, the US chose to listen to the advice of a state and its leader (Netanyahu) who clearly had shown their preference for diplomacy to fail. (This doesn't take any blame away from the Raisi gov's conduct, but Biden had a major opportunity with Rouhani that he blew) >>

4. Moreover, Gen Kalman says the US is listening to Israel by shifting its position to drawing the line at a nuclear weapons CAPABILITY (i.e. enrichment), and not an actual bomb.

"Even the Americans are clearly saying they will not allow Iran to achieve nuclear capability.">>

5. I do not believe this is true. Certainly, in its public messaging, the US has not shifted to the Israeli position. Adopting the Israeli red line would be tantamount to rejecting the very basis of the JCPOA.

But there's more... >>

6. This is REALLY important. Kelman defends Trump's decision to betray the JCPOA EVEN THOUGH it has led to Iran significantly advancing its nuclear program since it has ensured that the Iranian issue "has remained on the agenda."

Let me explain why this is so important: >>

7. "Under Biden’s national security doctrines, the Middle East is in fourth or fifth place. The United States is looking at other regions and doesn’t want to invest as much in ours. Leaving the deal actually left the Iranian issues on the agenda very clearly," Kelman says.
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8. So it is better to have an Iran that advances toward a bomb but that remains on America's list of top enemies and potentially prevents the US from exiting the Mideast, than an Iran that CAN'T build a bomb and, as a result, no longer is on America's radar.

READ THAT AGAIN. >>

9. As I revealed in Losing an Enemy, the bomb is not Israel's main concern. It's the idea that the US reconciles w/ Iran (and exits the region) without Iran reconciling with Israel.

As Kalman explains, keeping the conflict alive prevents that scenario.//

amazon.com/Losing-Enemy-O…