I think this piece is broadly right, but a lot of what looks like a huge surprise in redistricting comes from two separate measures of the effect of redistricting: change in party control v. change in PVI nymag.com/intelligencer/…
Take NV. It had a 3-1 Dem delegation in '20; it will have a 3-1 map in '21. No change, as expected before redistricting.
But the districts got quite a bit stronger for Democrats.
In '20, it was 3-1 to the right of the national vote, now it's 3-1 to the left.
But the districts got quite a bit stronger for Democrats.
In '20, it was 3-1 to the right of the national vote, now it's 3-1 to the left.
Before redistricting, most of the analysis was done in terms of that former measure--expected seat flips.
Now that we have actual districts, most of the analysis is being done with the latter.
Now that we have actual districts, most of the analysis is being done with the latter.
A lot of the 'surprise' falls into this category.
Take Texas: it actually was expected to be 13 Dem before! Go look at Wasserman's old tweets or something.
But two contested but already Dem-held districts--the old 32/7--are now solid D, obscuring other GOP improvements
Take Texas: it actually was expected to be 13 Dem before! Go look at Wasserman's old tweets or something.
But two contested but already Dem-held districts--the old 32/7--are now solid D, obscuring other GOP improvements
You can see some of it play out on the great FiveThirtyEight page.
Wow, looks great for Dems by PVI!
But the Dems didn't gain three seats on this map
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Wow, looks great for Dems by PVI!
But the Dems didn't gain three seats on this map
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
There have been some real surprises to the advantage of Democrats, at least from my POV. Oregon and New Mexico count. There hasn't really been an equivalent on the GOP side, though there's still time in a place like Tennessee
Anyway, the bottom-line doesn't necessarily change: the old 'GOP take back the House with redistricting' story doesn't really hold-up, thanks to OR/NM and a few good for Dems but not necessarily surprising outcomes in a few other states
And yes, the national House map is also poised to be more fair than last cycle, with the mean-median gap falling by about 2/3 over the districts I've processed so far.
But to the extent that the picture looks *vastly* different than it did in August, that's mainly because of a change in measurement.
And in fairness to the GOP, it's worth noting that they have passed on some opportunities to bust Dem cities in red states, or at least haven't taken them yet. KY-3, NE-2, TN-5, IN-5, even GA-7 were/are all at least potentially on the table in August
https://twitter.com/NeeraStan/status/1475497753211924481?s=20
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