It seems people are struggling to believe this @EricLevitz piece, based on @Wertwhile analysis, so let me add a few hard numbers to help clarify
https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1475460150597238786?s=20
Take the 'mean-median gap', maybe the very simplest measure of whether a party will struggle to translate their popular majority into a congressional majority.
Across the 241 districts drawn so far, the mean-median gap is 0.00, down from R+2.4 in these same states in 2020 pres.
Across the 241 districts drawn so far, the mean-median gap is 0.00, down from R+2.4 in these same states in 2020 pres.
So, to this point, the map is not simply 'not as bad' for Democrats as feared. The first 241 districts so far are basically fair, thanks to a mix of both Democratic and Republican gerrymandering cancelling the other out
A little less abstractly: the new districts were Biden 135, Trump 106 in 2020. On the old map, it was Biden 131, Trump 108.
With respect to the national vote, the new districts have 127 leaning left to 114 leaning right; before it was 121 to 118. (the completed states tilt D)
With respect to the national vote, the new districts have 127 leaning left to 114 leaning right; before it was 121 to 118. (the completed states tilt D)
From there there's still a ton of uncertainty: Dems have a huge opportunity in NY. A commission will help in MI. They have opportunities to undo a GOP edge in NC/OH state courts.
The GOP OTOH has opportunities in GA, FL, TN, MO, KY.
So there's a ton of moving pieces left
The GOP OTOH has opportunities in GA, FL, TN, MO, KY.
So there's a ton of moving pieces left
Georgia's new map, which is expected to finalize soon, alone will be enough to create a mean-median gap of R+.6.
So there's a long way to go.
So there's a long way to go.
And similarly, the mean-median gap was R+.6 before CA finished up. This bounces around a lot, and when one side puts together a string of good news in a row things can quickly look different.
And some good Democratic opportunities v. 2010, like Michigan, can wind up adding to their mean-median gap in '20.
If Michigan adopts the Chesnut plan, it'll help the Democrats v. 2010 but, along with GA, would give the GOP a R+1.1 mean-median gap nationwide
If Michigan adopts the Chesnut plan, it'll help the Democrats v. 2010 but, along with GA, would give the GOP a R+1.1 mean-median gap nationwide
(i believe this is true of basically all of the michigan plans; chestnut is just the one i've had downloaded as a placeholder)
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