Thread by @AuroraIntel

#Iran/#Syria - Supply Chain Disruption, Moving Target? - This is somewhat ironic as I did a year look back yesterday, but never mind, this is a subject year look back.

In January this year, reports begun to circulate, and later confirmed by analysis of an extensive…

Airstrike against multiple positions across Deir Ez-Zor (DeZ) in East #Syria against #IRGC assets and affiliated assets belonging to proxies. The DeZ has shown as a somewhat popular route for the “axis of resistance” as it allowed them to transport via ground into Syria from Iraq

https://twitter.com/auroraintel/status/1349203573431820296

It allowed more flexibility along the route as several areas associated to IRGC activities in Iraq could be used in a “run up” towards the border with Syria. Despite this in 2019 there was reportedly 5 airstrikes affiliated to Israel conducted in Iraq.

These 5 strikes remain a topic of interest as they were never “fully” confirmed, as Israel, as always works on a policy of ambiguity on these event(s) but tidbits have leaned on them being confirmed, anyway slight deviant from the topic, but still relevant.

Throughout the year reports of airstrikes in Syria continued to come through across the months, across multiple areas of Syria, Damascus, Homs, Aleppo, against multiple assets, Air Defense locations, Warehouses in compounds.

In October, a series of airstrikes were conducted, more symbolic than others, a SEAD mission was conducted several days before a significant strike against areas surrounding Palmyra.

It was suspected that these locations had affiliation to the #IRGC early on due to previous

https://twitter.com/auroraintel/status/1449774316787228679

Reports and imagery of Fatemiyoun militants at one of the targeted locations.

The supply route in Palmyra can be served by two core routes, from the West and T4 airbase or from the East and DeZ

https://twitter.com/auroraintel/status/1450929295824756747

The West route via T4 does offer more protection due to Air Defense deployments being in greater numbers in the East, so where am I going with this? The east can be served “easy" by Iraq, and into Palmyra (or further) but it’s exposed, unprotected to some extent.

To close off the East we have seen this trend for the last few years with the extensive targeting of the, at the time, being built #IRGC base in Albukamal being targeted, and now mostly abandoned except for a tunnel which still sees the odd activity.

https://twitter.com/auroraintel/status/1240036730880831489

As we get further West into Syria we start to see the use of the air route more, Damascus Airport, T4 and other military airports, Throughout the year IRGC affiliated flights are publicly monitored flying from Tehran to..

Damascus. This is a common route for smuggling items into Syria, it’s ultimately the quickest route for them. For a period of time a pattern emerged after a series of flights into Damascus airstrikes would be conducted, presumed to be targeting the contents on the ground.

Throughout the years the reported IDF airstrikes have targeted these routes, targeting the runways, whilst it doesn’t stop these routes it does pause them for a while as the repairs take time. Examples for T4.

https://twitter.com/auroraintel/status/1448022968047656960?s=21

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1302550635255074822

And a more recent one at Damascus Airport. Despite the runway already undergoing resurfacing, imagery from yesterday shows that no work has taken place since and these impacts have remained untouched.

https://twitter.com/auroraintel/status/1471909416358318081

So, now we have the land supply chain from the East, and the air (technically from the the east aswell).

In May, a rare reported airstrike (at the time) was conducted in Latakia and the surrounding areas, I wrote a thread about this, which details which is was counted as rare.

https://twitter.com/auroraintel/status/1391655906962718721

However, since then two strikes have been conducted in Latakia, in December, alone, against the port. The final supply chain, the Sea.

Throughout 2021 we have heard the term “tanker wars” become a common phase used for the Iran/Israel “war between wars” against assets at sea.

A systematic tit for tat targeting of vessels across several areas of the seas. Notably the must recent being the Mercer Street leaving multinational crew members dead from a drone impact on the bridge, allegedly conducted by Iran using their Delta Wing Drone(s) (Shahed-136)

But let’s step back to March, to the SHAHR E KORD, a cargo vessel belonging to Iran, making a trip to Syria, reported targeted by Israel en route to deliver illicit cargo to militants in Syria and onto Hezbollah.

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1369945156162572292

Step forward back to December, SHAHR E KORD now named DAISY now taking a different route to Syria, several days later the first strike at Latakia Port.

https://twitter.com/samir_madani/status/1464550236404264963

Between March and December a lot of events happened in the “tanker wars”, events including multiple vessels belonging to Iran and Israel, for those unaware, a few of the events to search are the Saviz, Hyperion Ray, Mercer Street (there are more.)

Pressure mounted throughout the year to stop these “tanker wars” attacks, from both sides. Israel was pressured by the US, since the Mercer Street this “theatre” has calmed (remains to be seen if it’s truly over). But what does that mean? It means that these vessels, the cargo

Has to end up somewhere, that somewhere is Latakia Port (it seems). Today’s reported airstrike comes after the arrival of Iranian container vessel SHIBA into Latakia on the 24th December.

What is this ramble about really? Well it shows the ever moving, ever evolving supply chain that runs from Iran into Syria, via land, sea and air, from West Syria to East, have it can change, evolve, adapt and move based not just on events within the country but also outwit.

Ps; yes, I totally know this should have ended up being an article on the website instead of a thread on twitter, Welp.

Enjoy the typos :).